The IMF likes centrally planned economies. It has been wrong many times about Britain and always seems to forecast lower then the real growth. These forecasts then put pressure on governments to follow the ‘rules’ as espoused by the IMF.
It seems to do the opposite for Germany.
Eventually reality wins, but it is quite a struggle.
David Jory
11 months ago
The IMF likes centrally planned economies. It has been wrong many times about Britain and always seems to forecast lower then the real growth. These forecasts then put pressure on governments to follow the ‘rules’ as espoused by the IMF.
It seems to do the opposite for Germany.
Eventually reality wins, but it is quite a struggle.
Mark epperson
11 months ago
I agree, but on a wider scale, why should we trust, at the present time, any government forecast, report, statement, or a talking head, or hairdo briefing?
It’s not that we (ordinary people) need to trust them but that investors and banks currently do. As explained in the article the forecasts have their own internal logic where if more growth is forecast investors are more likely to invest in the economy, or be able to justify an investment to their bosses.
Even if each missed growth figure only accounts for 0.1% and it is likely to be a lot more especially when negative growth is upgraded to positive it makes a big difference over time due to the percentage rise in the economy. One mistake in the other direction would be reasonable as it makes with other countries.
It’s not that we (ordinary people) need to trust them but that investors and banks currently do. As explained in the article the forecasts have their own internal logic where if more growth is forecast investors are more likely to invest in the economy, or be able to justify an investment to their bosses.
Even if each missed growth figure only accounts for 0.1% and it is likely to be a lot more especially when negative growth is upgraded to positive it makes a big difference over time due to the percentage rise in the economy. One mistake in the other direction would be reasonable as it makes with other countries.
Last edited 11 months ago by Milton Gibbon
Mark epperson
11 months ago
I agree, but on a wider scale, why should we trust, at the present time, any government forecast, report, statement, or a talking head, or hairdo briefing?
Nicky Samengo-Turner
11 months ago
It all depends on the statistics, compilation and definition of recession: far too macro.
Nicky Samengo-Turner
11 months ago
It all depends on the statistics, compilation and definition of recession: far too macro.
The IMF likes centrally planned economies. It has been wrong many times about Britain and always seems to forecast lower then the real growth. These forecasts then put pressure on governments to follow the ‘rules’ as espoused by the IMF.
It seems to do the opposite for Germany.
Eventually reality wins, but it is quite a struggle.
The IMF likes centrally planned economies. It has been wrong many times about Britain and always seems to forecast lower then the real growth. These forecasts then put pressure on governments to follow the ‘rules’ as espoused by the IMF.
It seems to do the opposite for Germany.
Eventually reality wins, but it is quite a struggle.
I agree, but on a wider scale, why should we trust, at the present time, any government forecast, report, statement, or a talking head, or hairdo briefing?
It’s not that we (ordinary people) need to trust them but that investors and banks currently do. As explained in the article the forecasts have their own internal logic where if more growth is forecast investors are more likely to invest in the economy, or be able to justify an investment to their bosses.
https://order-order.com/2023/05/23/imf-forecasts-uk-no-longer-heading-for-recession/
Even if each missed growth figure only accounts for 0.1% and it is likely to be a lot more especially when negative growth is upgraded to positive it makes a big difference over time due to the percentage rise in the economy. One mistake in the other direction would be reasonable as it makes with other countries.
It’s not that we (ordinary people) need to trust them but that investors and banks currently do. As explained in the article the forecasts have their own internal logic where if more growth is forecast investors are more likely to invest in the economy, or be able to justify an investment to their bosses.
https://order-order.com/2023/05/23/imf-forecasts-uk-no-longer-heading-for-recession/
Even if each missed growth figure only accounts for 0.1% and it is likely to be a lot more especially when negative growth is upgraded to positive it makes a big difference over time due to the percentage rise in the economy. One mistake in the other direction would be reasonable as it makes with other countries.
I agree, but on a wider scale, why should we trust, at the present time, any government forecast, report, statement, or a talking head, or hairdo briefing?
It all depends on the statistics, compilation and definition of recession: far too macro.
It all depends on the statistics, compilation and definition of recession: far too macro.