Nevertheless, the trend lines are ominous. Most of China’s attack forces do appear to be already in place, ranging from thousands of cruise missiles and drones to hundreds of new helicopters and large transport aircraft for delivering airborne assaults directly into the island’s vulnerable interior — thus securing the beachheads from behind. Moreover, China’s leaders are well aware that many special weapons shipments to Taiwan are delayed by the massive demands for high-tech arms and munitions emanating from Kyiv. 

There is a considerable danger that as the war continues to escalate in Eastern Europe that Chinese leaders may see an opportunity to resolve the Taiwan issue while the West is distracted and increasingly fatigued by the war in Ukraine. In a hint of what terrible risks could come from a US-China war over Taiwan, it is all too plain that Beijing is rapidly building up its nuclear forces in case such an eventuality comes to pass.

In general, the China threat to the U.S. and even to Taiwan is much over-hyped.  For example, the PLA has not sought to interfere with or block any U.S. Navy transits of the Taiwan Strait that have been occurring with ever greater frequency. Likewise, Chinese military aircraft sorties into the western Pacific are often criticised in the Western media as penetrations of Taiwan air space. That is not at all true, since the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is so expansive as to cover a major portion of the Chinese coastline — nor do such zones have any legal basis.

Many have fixated, moreover, on the possibility of a Pelosi visit, while ignoring the overall pattern, which has seen Washington steadily denigrate the meaning of the One China Policy. Examples include the relatively new $250 million embassy-like facility constructed by the U.S. in Taipei, accelerating weapons sales, the famous phone call between Donald Trump and Tsai Ying-wen, and a parade of American senators, military leaders, and senior diplomats through Taipei. These actions have all worked toward the end of condemning the historic compromise established by the Shanghai Communique to a death by a thousand cuts. Needless to say, a new law now under consideration on Capitol Hill to update the Taiwan Relations Act, which would officially pronounce Taiwan as a ‘non-NATO ally’ of the United States, fits this same pattern of provocatively ‘poking the dragon’ by Washington.

Asia-Pacific experts are keen to learn the lessons of the ongoing Ukraine War for any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Foremost among these lessons should be the understanding that the West should not wantonly transgress upon the clear red lines of other great powers.