April 30, 2024 - 7:00am

Since Kate Forbes narrowly lost the SNP leadership to Humza Yousaf last year – 48% to 52%, on second preferences — Scottish Nationalists have been left pondering what might have been.

After all, Forbes correctly predicted Yousaf was not up to the job of being first minister, often in no uncertain terms. In one particularly memorable moment during a TV debate between the contenders, she savaged the ministerial record of her colleague in government, telling Yousaf that when “you were a transport minister … the trains were never on time, when you were justice secretary, the police were stretched to breaking point, and now [you are] health minister we have got record high waiting times”.

Similarly, she also correctly predicted that “more of the same [from the SNP was] not what Scotland needs”. This was a criticism of a perceived failure of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon to deliver on key issues, such as economic growth, raising education standards and reducing hospital waiting times. But it was also an attempt to differentiate herself from Yousaf, who revelled in being dubbed “continuity Sturgeon”. “We actually do need to change,” Forbes told reporters after another fiery TV debate.

The calamitous year and a bit of Yousaf’s brief reign has proved Forbes right on both counts. Of course, Yousaf has not been helped by the ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s finances, which would have seriously undermined the credibility of whoever took over from Sturgeon as leader, and in this respect Forbes was fortunate in her narrow defeat.

But she is nevertheless still correct that the SNP urgently needs not only a competent leader, but also a new vision after 17 years in power in Scotland. And, as a former cabinet minister with a high reputation in the Scottish government — as well as an instinctive commitment to meritocracy, economic growth and raising living standards — there is a strong case to be made that Forbes offers just that.

The question now is whether she can be persuaded to give SNP members the chance to right the mistake they made 13 months ago. At the time of writing, she is still considering her options amid reports that John Swinney, a former SNP leader and veteran cabinet minister, may also enter the race to succeed Yousaf.

But whatever Forbes’s eventual decision, there is good reason to think that — just as she was fortunate to not win the leadership in 2023 — she may also be wise to avoid taking on the role until after devolved elections in 2026.

Firstly, the issue of her views on some social issues remains a stumbling block. An active member of the conservative Free Church of Scotland (her father was a missionary and she spent much of her early life in India), Forbes faced criticism during the 2023 leadership race after she declared that she would not have voted in favour of equal marriage had she been an MSP in 2014 when the legislation came before the Scottish Parliament. Further issues around her attitudes to abortion and having children out of wedlock also emerged.

Such views create opposition to Forbes from within the SNP but, perhaps more importantly, in other parties too. Pro-LGBTQ parties such as the Scottish Greens, on whom the SNP rely for support, would be unlikely to back a Forbes premiership and — having already flexed their muscles by bringing down Yousaf — would have few qualms doing the same to her. Devolved elections in 2026 may significantly alter the arithmetic of the Scottish Parliament and offer Forbes more pliant partners if the SNP can stay in power.

Secondly, even the SNP’s most devoted supporters acknowledge the party is facing a difficult general election in Scotland later this year. Opinion polls consistently suggest the Nationalists could lose dozens of seats to a resurgent Scottish Labour Party. It would be prudent for Forbes to let another leader take the blame for this calamity and then, by 2026, perhaps SNP members will be pining for her even more.


Andrew Liddle is a political commentator and historian based in Edinburgh.

ABTLiddle