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Happening today beneath the surface
Who’s the big loser from tactical voting?
Keir Starmer has benefitted from his opponent's unpopularity. Credit: Getty
Happening today beneath the surface
Keir Starmer has benefitted from his opponent's unpopularity. Credit: Getty
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SubscribeNot sure I believe these numbers.
So YouGov claims that almost half (6%) of the people who want to vote Green (13%) plan to vote Labour.
So, 13% of the electorate would vote Green. More than the Lib Dems. I suppose it’s possible. But depressing that we have that many impractical dreamers.
Then, with Labour forecast to have a huge majority of seats, surely anyone who wants to vote Green can vote Green. Why is there any need to vote tactically ? And why isn’t there more transfer from Greens to Lib Dems ?
The Poll shows a clear majority support Lab/Lib/Green – what one might call a Progressive Centre. It shows the combined Right significantly behind.
And therein lies a reality Unherd and many commentators struggle to grasp. The heart of the country is perhaps not where you think it is.
Not sure that’s the case at all. The signal-to-noise ratio here is pretty high given the Conservatives are at about the bottom of the cycle and Labour at the top – beware of measuring noise.
Point 1: These charts exclude the huge % of people who won’t be voting.
Point 2: This is data taken at a snapshot in time when the public mood is “Tories out”. As the article admits, there is little general enthusiasm or optimism about any of the alternatives. Or belief that things will get better.
Point 3: There are large chunks of Green, Labour and Lib Dem support that are well left of “centrist”.
Point 4: There are large chunks of Labour and Lib Dem support that are not strongly politically aligned.
Point 5: The “Progressive” label is meaningless. There’s nothing progressive about many of the left.
A self comforting analysis I would contend PB, but you are correct that a Poll can be a symptom of it’s moment.
The v significant gap is what the Right should note. It’s not even close to a bloc of Lab/Lib/Green. And one might find some Centrist Tories peel away to this if the Right moves further Right.
I take no comfort in any of this !
But again, we should remember that political support is extraordinarily weak and transient these days. It’s only three years since it was Labour who were in almost terminal crisis.
I forgot something:
Point 6: I think you’re assuming that everyone who votes Lib Dem, Labour or Green is a “progressive centrist”. However, this concedes that there are other types of centrist.
Now centrists may indeed be a majority. But you clearly think this is not a single unified block. Nor should we expect it to be. After all, politics is a bit more interesting than a one dminsional axis these days.
So what % of centrists do you reckon are the “progressive” ones ? And what are the correct sub-types for the other sorts of centrists ?
Depends what we mean by Progressive PB. And that not a simple answer is it. I suspect Progressive would have quite a broad spectrum – just like the Right. How folks would answer would depend on how one described the term..
But I think the Brits are generally centrist, moderate, tolerant, believe in fair play etc, and generally sensible. I also think most don’t want a neo-liberal approach although most also wouldn’t use that term.