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November 6, 2024 - 7:30pm
Donald Trump has now captured the presidency for a second time, while the Republican Party has taken back the Senate and looks on course to win the House of Representatives. Beyond these headlines, though, there may be many more beneficiaries of a Trump victory — and plenty of casualties, too.
Winners
- The fossil fuel industry. Under Kamala Harris and a Democratic Congress, the now-thriving lords of oil and gas would have been facing a death sentence. Now, the Senate is sure to block any radical green policies, and perhaps the House as well. Given weakness in the marketplace and Republican hostility, green investors may have to find another line of work or move to Canada.
- Red states. Their power will inevitably grow as jobs and people move there, notably to the South. There’s no chance that the high-tax states will gain back their émigrés, while policies encouraging manufacturing are likely to remain confined to the Sun Belt. This is manna from heaven for the growing coterie of young people in skilled trades, who may be the biggest winners of all, even as their professional rivals struggle. This election may also be a relief to communities on the US-Mexico border after Joe Biden’s administration failed to get a handle on immigration. Even Harris ended up calling for a border wall, and Trump now has the votes to make it happen.
- Space travel and the military-industrial complex. By embracing tech mogul Elon Musk, the President-elect and his party have shown their openness to a new libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley. As SpaceX and much of the industry relocates largely to Florida and Texas, the Republicans will have many reasons to back more space spending. Similarly, the new wave of defence companies, such as Palantir and Anduril, can expect bigger contracts as the US rearms.
- US-Israel relations. The Democrats have made a point of criticising Israel’s government, its leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and its military strategy. There is growing evidence of Iranian espionage influence in prominent DC circles which will stop with Trump. Yet while Israel may be happy with Trump’s return, so too might Russian President Vladimir Putin: cue the rekindling bromance.
Losers
- The green industry. The walls are closing in on the whole Net Zero and renewable-centred energy plan. Wall Street is retreating from this sector and many companies are headed for oblivion. A GOP Senate and House will block any new gushers of green spending, and Trump could provide the potential coup de grâce.
- Large dense cities in blue states. Many of these are struggling with homelessness and increased crime rates. The hope for urban cores has become based on climate policies that limit suburban and exurban development. They also depend on federal largesse for their transit systems. Yet ever fewer Americans ride the rails and most voters, for either party, prefer the exurbs and suburbs, even in places like California.
- Iran. The more powerful the Republican Party, the worse it is for Iran. Not only will Congress be more hostile to this most dangerous of powers, but the White House is not likely to restrain Israel’s moves to destroy Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities.
- China. Trump’s tariff policy could not come at a worse time, as Beijing’s economy is weakening amid rising unemployment and a devastated property market. However, while tariffs would be dreadful for China, they could also hurt working Americans through increased inflation.
Of course, President Trump may be blocked by a still-strong Democratic Congressional party and by the courts, including his own appointees. The good news is that, for all the hysteria, Americans will survive, and likely thrive — not because of our political class but despite it.
Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.
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SubscribeYou forgot a couple of sure-fire losers: Anybody depending on planet earth and its climate, and Ukraine.
I don’t understand pessimists like you. If you want climate action, you can thank Elon Musk for all he’s done over the last 20 years to revolutionize the carmaking industry to make electric cars practical. And for juicing up the solar power industry. He’s done more for the climate than any other person in the world. And he’s one of Donald Trump’s biggest supporters.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk both realize that we need to manage the energy transition a lot better than the Democrats and other liberals with their NetZero plans and gasoline car bans. Politicians don’t know how to solve the climate problem. No more than Greta Thunberg does, and she hasn’t a clue. Those political measures waste billions, do little good, and cause great harm. I should know. I’ve been working in this area longer than Elon Musk (though with much, much less to show for it).
And if you want the best for Ukraine as a country, then you should welcome the election of Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Joe Biden did nothing to help Ukraine. He should have been talking to Vladimir Putin to try to work out a deal. He couldn’t. He didn’t have the experience and he didn’t have the talent and his mind was too damaged. Kamala Harris is even worse.
Donald Trump knows how to deal with people like Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, and Xi Jinping. He’s got the experience from decades in business and four years in the White House. He’s good at foreign policy — he’s a master of the art of the deal. And he’s laid out a plan to get peace in Ukraine that is a lot smarter than anyone else has proposed.
Donald Trump’s plan is to talk. Just like the fictional ambassador Hal Wyler said it is imperative to do. And like Moshe Dayan said, “if you want peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” Donald Trump said he would start that Ukraine peace process as soon as he won the election, and I’m betting he will.
Donald Trump’s enemies will try to stop him, and maybe they will. They are self-righteous enough to think they are doing good when they are doing harm. And even if Donald Trump does everything right, that’s no guarantee of success. You don’t know going into negotiations what the outcome will be. It’s like playing chess. Too much depends on what your opponent does. You have to risk failure, but go ahead anyway.
So we don’t know what the results will be. When you try something new, results aren’t guaranteed. If you know in advance what the results of an experiment will be, it’s not really an experiment. But at least now we will have a US president again, out there trying to solve problems instead of dozing away his days with the White House as his assisted living center. That alone is cause for optimism, not moaning over what we have lost.
What do mean that Biden has done nothing to help Ukraine? He convinced Congress to send arms several times and convinced other countries to do the same. Putin is a brutal dictator, and he will never accept a peace agreement, because he wants Russia to return to the 19- Century when Russia was an empire. Why do you think Finland joined NATO? Also, Americans need to remember that for sixty years the Republicans have wanted to destroy Social Security and Medicare. Now that we have Republicans in power—it looks like the House will turn red—and the Heritage Foundation (Project 2025) in the Oval Office, those “entitlements “ that people need to survive in their old age will be axed or severely cut. The Republicans (and the Heritage Foundation) will also get rid of the Department of Education, the EPA (bye, bye clean air, clean soil, clean water!!!), FEMA, and federal insurance that protects people’s funds if a bank goes under (FDIC). The list of wishes is long, and the anti-woke social changes are also on the way. Not only a federal ban on abortion, but a ban on contraception. (The leaders of the Heritage Foundation are ultra conservative, traditional Catholics, many of whom are members of Opus Dei sp. ) If you have been listening to J.D. Vance, this is what he imagines—women barefoot and pregnant and out of the workforce. (except his wife). Wait! Vance only has three children!! He should have about six by now. Could they be using birth control? Gasp! Finally, Trump had six bankruptcies and would have had more if Daddy hadn’t saved him. He bankrupted THREE casinos, a feat never achieved by any casino in history. The house always wins. Trump lost more money in one year than any American in history—1 billion dollars. Trump also failed to pay small business owners who worked on Trump Tower—plumbers, electricians, tile and wood floors, painters, etc. They sued, but Trump kept the cases tied up in the courts so long they gave up. Some of them went under. So much for the working class.
What Biden has done is like seeing 2 men fighting, not care/know about their history, see 1 has a weapon and so decide to give the other a paper bag to help them.
The West has, cruelly and selfishly, been encouraging Ukraine to sacrifice its people to weaken Russia. All it has done is destroy Ukraine and force Russia into the arms of China. Terrible result for everyone, except China, NK and Iran.
Nonsense.
No one forced Putin to invade Ukraine. This is all on him and his cronies. All the deaths, waste and suffering. And trashing Russia’s future.
You do realize the only assurance of “aid” in your dotage is a strong economy around you?
A billionaire caring about the working class, how oxymoron is that. The only time the working class prospered was when they had strong unions and political organization, which is no longer the case. They need to reorganize, unionize and fight like they used to. The billionaire oligarchs don’t give a hoot about working people. The democratic party needs to get away from radical feminism, DEI, the gender bs, and get back to their roots and supporting the working class for real and cut out the bs
Why bother with the working class when you can get $8bn from Soros and his pals in return for opening the borders. It’s a business.
The trough is hard to leave.
The car industry and everyone who works in it are big winners as well. America can compete when it comes to internal combustion engines.
The biggest losers are all the NGOs are corporate grifters associated with the climate change industrial complex, and the movement and sheltering of illegal immigrants.
That Donald Trump is going to throw out electric car mandates is good news. Mandates and subsidies are never effective industrial policy. Carmakers and car buyers should be able to choose what to make and buy, not be forced to buck market forces.
But the car industry is changing, and we need an industrial policy that keeps American carmakers competitive. Chinese companies are gearing up to eat not only our lunch, but our breakfast and dinner too. They are making advances in electric cars while we are almost standing still.
Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford, had a Chinese electric car flown over from Shanghai to Chicago six months ago and he’s been driving it ever since. It costs $30,000, goes from 0 to 60 in 2.9 seconds, and has a 500 mile range. The user experience (UX) is very advanced — the car’s maker is Xiaomi, which until 6 months ago only made smartphone hardware and software. Their knowledge of infotainment systems fits right in.
Jim Farley praised the car for its performance and luxury, comparing it to a Porsche Taycan. He says now he’s not worried about GM or Toyota. He’s worried about competition from the Chinese. And so am I. Warren Buffett’s BYD is on track to be the world’s biggest carmaker, if they are not already.
Xiaomi also made my robot-vaccum cleaner. I sure the Chinese government now knows the layout of my house.
So it’s all upside, then?
I just left the same comment 😀
So, what you are saying is that it’s all upside then?
According to this article it is good news all round, then.
All the bad people are happy, but all the worse people are not. Donald Trump was supposed to have been the end of the world last time. If those who are losing their minds today meant what they were saying, then they would take to streets, or even take up arms. They have until 20 January. If they truly believed that Trump’s second inauguration might realistically preclude any future election, then they would not give a damn that he had won this one. They would still do whatever it took. Public figures who have claimed that Trump would place you at risk of the gulag or the ice pick, you have until 20 January to flee.
Trump has well and truly won, and Kamala Harris has well and truly lost. Even Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Trump is the first Republican to have managed that in 20 years. There was no county in the entire country where Harris in 2024 outperformed Joe Biden in 2020. In Missouri, where Trump has undoubtedly won, voters approved a progressive increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour by January 2026, with adjustment thereafter in line with inflation. There were pro-abortion ballot propositions in 10 states, and they have certainly outperformed Harris in nine of them, massively in several cases, with Trump winning at least six states where abortion passed. It also passed in Nevada, where the Presidential result has yet to be declared. Having declined to endorse Harris, Rashida Tlaib was re-elected with 70 per cent of the vote in a district that Harris lost.
The meltdown is glorious. Black men are misogynistic. Latinos are misogynistic and racist. Hispanics and Arabs should be deported. Plus the usual class stuff, but with an even greater intensity. Unable to seek a third term even if he wanted one, Trump may or may not do anything for the people who by voting for him, or by voting for third parties, or by abstaining out of anything but apathy, had put him over the line. But they are everyone whose very existence drives liberals delirious, and not only in one country: young men and black men, Muslims and Christian Arabs, a working class that identifies as such and a Left that was told until Monday that it was irrelevant, but which is now being vilified for its failure to have done its queenmaking duty. The Latin American element is more specific to the United States, but it has obvious parallels elsewhere, including here, where in fact such communities are increasingly apparent. Make Britain Great Again.
One fact check. Kamala Harris did more than 3% better in 58 counties than Joe Biden did in 2020. Not zero, like you said. Jake Tapper and John King on CNN gave the wrong impression by showing an empty state-level map and implying that it was county-level. John King corrected that quickly, but the correction is never shown.
It is true that Donald Trump’s performed much better than Kamala Harris, overperforming in more than 1,000 counties. And he overperformed in many states, including my state of California, where he got 12% more of the vote than in 2020, and New York, New Jersey, and Maryland, where he got more than 10% more.
Twice my comments about Trump, which were negative, have been removed. So I’ll say something nice about him. He has great teeth. Sorry, I mean veneers.
The content moderation here has become a joke. I don’t know if it is the filtering software or if other readers are gaming the system to get comments they don’t like taken down. But it is bad and getting worse.
He is a particularly nice shade or orange too.
Very comforting and warm. It’s like thanksgiving every day of the year.
China, although facing demographic headwinds, is building solar fast enough that in a few years it’ll be able to weather the oil embargoes that would inevitably follow on a Taiwan attack. Its electric car industry is also turning into a huge source of revenue by exporting to non-G20 countries.
Solar panels will generate almost nothing when they are covered by a fine layer of pm2.5 dust and under China’s permanently polution hazy skies.
I was involved in one of the first remote solar installations in China for oil and gas. The solar system was sized for the service and the conditions conveyed but it ran out of power fast. I think it had to be doubled in the end.
Trump’s last term was characterized by an all-of-the-above energy policy. Solar + wind + storage installs no longer need subsidies, they just need regulators to get out of the way. Remember, renewables are going up fast in Texas!
Name any grid anywhere in the world that is run by wind and solar? Electric grids with deep penetration of wind in solar have the highest costs in the world. Energy prices in England and Germany are five times higher than China, and will lead to even further Deindustrialization.
There is a town of 19,000 in Australia that just experienced a week’s worth of blackouts even though it had enough wind and solar to supposedly power 120,000 homes.
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/11/04/the-town-in-australia-run-entirely-on-renewable-energy-where-a-single-storm-left-the-population-without-power-for-days/
Yes grid power that is at least twice as expensive.
The storm brought down the transmission towers. That, together with the failure of the backup generators, caused the blackout. The storm would have caused transmission towers transmitting coal powered electricity to fail too.
The wind and solar were within their own micro grid. The transmission lines were downstream. If they had a local gas or coal plant, they certainly could have used it.
You also missed the part where they couldn’t use backup diesel engines continuously because they were incompatible with the solar installations and kept tripping. Or the part where some genius suggested they actually get rid of their diesel generators a few years ago.
If ‘Cheap Chinese Products’ from the “Chinese Communist Party” crush your country’s native industry, I’d call that a raw deal. Cheap plastic junky products in the shops, and in exchanges, all the good manufacturing jobs in the steel, tech, automotive, and other industries get exported to China. Spare me from the hand-wringing of the financial “experts”.
If anyone thinks Trump will act to harm Elon Musk and Tesla after Musk’s support of Trump during the election they must be dreaming, Trump owes him something, they made a deal, if anything the electric car industry and Tesla will thrive. Subsidies and tax breaks are part of the game , that won’t end. Ev’s are just getting started, ice will be toast in the long run.
EV mandates are gone. Trump has said this explicitly. Musk owns many businesses other than Tesla.
Don’t live where it’s cold huh?
Trump owes Musk, and will do what he always does in that situation: welch on the debt.
The carmaking industry is a lot more complicated than that. The ICE Age will still last for a long time but that’s good for the climate, as Kelly Senecal and Felix Leach outline in their book Racing Toward Zero. And as a brilliant book coming out next year argues, subsidies, tax breaks and mandates for electric cars hurt more than they help.
Donald Trump and Elon Musk are both practical people. They both know how to tackle big problems. There’s no guarantee they will get it right, but they probably will. With Kamala Harris, though, there was no hope. She would have been as bad as Joe Biden, if not worse.
I hope Big Education becomes a loser. I see elite colleges lard up on administrators and pass along these costs with higher tuition. Students take out loans, which many have difficulty paying back because of the major they select. No worries, Biden and company are trying to forgive the loans (i.e. may the rest of us pay the loans). Meanwhile the endowments are in the billions of dollars. I see grade inflation and indoctrination of students to woke causes. Assaults on Jewish students are treated as, well, it depends on the context. Use the wrong pronoun or deadname someone and your in real trouble.
I hope that colleges have to finance their own students loans and suffer the consequences if the students default.
Yes it is particularly egregious when young blue collar family’s are paying for Ivy League tuitions of others. Government paying off these tuitions just increases the price for the next go round.
The industry deserves a winnowing.
Gee. I’m disappointed. I thought the whole point of Dictator for a Day was to zero out green energy on Day One.
It was to drill baby drill. You can’t simply shut off wind and solar by snapping your fingers.
An excellent summary of winners and losers. You omitted the Liberal Media as losers. I unfortunately have a sub to the NYT as I play Wordle. It’s concealment of Biden’s dementia, false polling and assisting the nepo college educated left to control the Democrats will cause it to lose more circulation as an anti-diploma education policy by Trump sweeps the nation. Those who work will thrive, trades, labourers, and service industries.
Give unto Caesar.
It’s only fair.
He’s got to make it to January yet. There’s already been two close shaves. I’m serious. Nor would I be surprised to see plenty of dirty tricks and earth-salting by the outgoing administration and its support network.
What are the odds Trump makes it through his entire term? 50-50? Less than that maybe. Musk might be an even bigger target than Trump.
Strange no comment from CS about how Kamala won! Personally I think everyone should completely ignore CS’s posts unless, as they rarely do, they make an actual point.
Who is CS?
There are some possible contradictions. Trump ran on the promise of a less interventionist policy. So one would think this means less investment in defence? This is also necessary if he wants to reduce national debt because, realistically, he will not be able to cut a lot of the other expenses in the end.
Furthermore, the libertarian iteration of Silicon Valley is nice and all but big tech is highly speculative and financialized. The FIAT system not libertarian at all. It seems to me that the booming US markets, real estate and equity funds are all the same phenomenon and possibly (likely?) a bubble. What will deregulation bring besides pumping up that bubble even further? How will all this wealth trickle down anyway? The 80s idea that cutting taxes and deregulation will automatically produce wealth was voodoo economics then and it is voodoo economics now. Trump’s promise to reindustrialize requires a different mindset and fiscal policies, cheap energy and a long breath.
DDS trumped TDS.
(Democrat derangement syndrome/Trump derangement syndrome)
I’m good with the outcome.