My hunch is that Western sanctions were as hard as they were because they fully expected the war to be over in a matter of weeks and the harsh sanctions could be used as leverage to roll back Russian battlefield gains, in return for their lifting. Unfortunately for Western Economies, Ukraine’s heroism on the battlefield has indefinitely prolonged the war, leaving a set of sanctions, that were largely supposed to be temporary, locked in, and no one now has the political capital reverse them.
Exactly. But now that Ukraine is very much off the front pages, Governments will quietly chip away at the sanctions, as Trudeau is doing here. As long as there are enough cake parties, curry nights, and handsy politicians to distract the media, nobody will notice that by this time next year we are back to where we were with Russia. The only casualties will be a handful of oligarchs losing their yachts, and hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian and Russians losing their lives.
Some probably also hoped the sanctions would turn Putin’s oligarch enablers against him and result in some kind of coup that would kill several birds with one stone. Now we’re sending Ukraine weapons, prolonging the war and the sanctions in order to damage Moscow when both are arguably doing just as much damage to us. Our leaders have misplayed their hand quite badly, both as a result of their mistaken assumption that Russia would quickly defeat Ukraine, and their failure to account for the double edged nature of economic warfare in general.
Steve Jolly
1 year ago
When moral imperatives clash with actual human needs, the latter is going to win every single time. To paraphrase a popular villain, people are only as good as the world allows them to be. People have the luxury of caring about wars happening hundreds or thousands of miles away while they’re comfortable and well fed watching the news on their big screen TVs. If those homes aren’t so comfortable and they aren’t so well fed, and their big-screen TV doesn’t work because the power is out again, they tend to care more about their own problems. Then, they sensibly elect politicians who prioritize their needs over whatever the moral imperative of the day is. It won’t get to that point because our politicians won’t let it, they’ll start making ‘exceptions’ like this until the public mood turns or they just lose interest, whichever comes first, at which point the charade will be dropped altogether. The decarbonize crowd should be taking notes because unless some miraculous new technology intervenes, they’ll be learning this lesson in the near future as well.
I truly hope that you are right, though given the apparent dumbness of most of our politicians over the last two and a half years I am not convinced.
Warren Trees
1 year ago
“As out of touch as our leaders seem…”
We all like to slam our political leaders, which is so easy these days, but why not start slamming the people that vote for them in the first place, for heaven’s sake. Perhaps it’s time to become accountable.
J Bryant
1 year ago
From his earlier articles, it’s clear the author strongly believe that sanctions are ineffective and counterproductive, and now he predicts they are about to crumble.
My sense is he’s overstating the reality somewhat. I believe the West intends to maintain economic pressure on Putin indefinitely. I agree with the author that sanctions will not topple his regime anytime soon, but over the long haul they might seriously undermine his economy.
I think we’re now seeing a rebalancing of sanctions that will leave in place the ones the West can live with. The author might argue those sanctions will be the weakest ones, but I think it’s too early to know.
My question is why doesn’t Putin continue to reduce gas/energy supplies to Europe? The author is certainly not overstating the effects of empty energy reserves on Europe this winter. I suppose that would reduce Russia’s income.
This war really is a mess and Biden’s rhetoric seems to have left him, and his allies, in a place where they can’t negotiate a resolution.
Andrew Roman
1 year ago
Trudeau said he is only doing this because Germany asked him to, not because Russia asked him to.
Ok, I got it now. Sanctions are only to be strictly enforced until the moment they are not. Even the word, “sanctions”, seems like one of those cheap words used to cover for the fact that someone carries a very small stick. Any sock puppet leader can announce, “We’re going to slap more sanctions on those bloody bastards!”
Dermot O'Sullivan
1 year ago
I may be out of date but I’m not sure that Russian gas has been sanctioned. There is some sort of pledge by the EU to reduce it over time.
Brian Villanueva
1 year ago
It’s shallow behavior from shallow leaders elected by a shallow and decadent people. Remember the movie Don’t Look Up? The director thought he was satirizing global warming deniers; he was really satirizing Western civilization.
Johan Grönwall
1 year ago
Article is an excellent example of advanced russian trolling: doom and gloom and degenerate westerners who just can’t cope with any hardship. We just have to wait and see who breaks first, won’t we?
Well so far it seems like the Russian economy is doing fine, the price of oil and gas is up, the value of the rouble is up and we’re still buying their fossil fuel s via India. Meanwhile our economies are tanking, and Russia is battering Ukraine into submission on the battlefield.
But, yes, let’s see who ‘breaks’ first. Looking forward to that glorious Ukrainian victory, with their country and our economies in ruins.
I wonder if they are already preparing the festivities for the victory parade in Kyiv? Perhaps the American President can be the Grand Marshall, along side his brilliant and erstwhile side kick, UVL.
Please report back to us in January, when the average temperature dips a bit and the cost of keeping the frost off the kitchen table becomes quite burdensome for the average bloke.
My hunch is that Western sanctions were as hard as they were because they fully expected the war to be over in a matter of weeks and the harsh sanctions could be used as leverage to roll back Russian battlefield gains, in return for their lifting. Unfortunately for Western Economies, Ukraine’s heroism on the battlefield has indefinitely prolonged the war, leaving a set of sanctions, that were largely supposed to be temporary, locked in, and no one now has the political capital reverse them.
Exactly. But now that Ukraine is very much off the front pages, Governments will quietly chip away at the sanctions, as Trudeau is doing here. As long as there are enough cake parties, curry nights, and handsy politicians to distract the media, nobody will notice that by this time next year we are back to where we were with Russia. The only casualties will be a handful of oligarchs losing their yachts, and hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian and Russians losing their lives.
The defenestration of Johnson occurs at a time most convenient to Moscow and Brussels.
Some probably also hoped the sanctions would turn Putin’s oligarch enablers against him and result in some kind of coup that would kill several birds with one stone. Now we’re sending Ukraine weapons, prolonging the war and the sanctions in order to damage Moscow when both are arguably doing just as much damage to us. Our leaders have misplayed their hand quite badly, both as a result of their mistaken assumption that Russia would quickly defeat Ukraine, and their failure to account for the double edged nature of economic warfare in general.
When moral imperatives clash with actual human needs, the latter is going to win every single time. To paraphrase a popular villain, people are only as good as the world allows them to be. People have the luxury of caring about wars happening hundreds or thousands of miles away while they’re comfortable and well fed watching the news on their big screen TVs. If those homes aren’t so comfortable and they aren’t so well fed, and their big-screen TV doesn’t work because the power is out again, they tend to care more about their own problems. Then, they sensibly elect politicians who prioritize their needs over whatever the moral imperative of the day is. It won’t get to that point because our politicians won’t let it, they’ll start making ‘exceptions’ like this until the public mood turns or they just lose interest, whichever comes first, at which point the charade will be dropped altogether. The decarbonize crowd should be taking notes because unless some miraculous new technology intervenes, they’ll be learning this lesson in the near future as well.
I truly hope that you are right, though given the apparent dumbness of most of our politicians over the last two and a half years I am not convinced.
“As out of touch as our leaders seem…”
We all like to slam our political leaders, which is so easy these days, but why not start slamming the people that vote for them in the first place, for heaven’s sake. Perhaps it’s time to become accountable.
From his earlier articles, it’s clear the author strongly believe that sanctions are ineffective and counterproductive, and now he predicts they are about to crumble.
My sense is he’s overstating the reality somewhat. I believe the West intends to maintain economic pressure on Putin indefinitely. I agree with the author that sanctions will not topple his regime anytime soon, but over the long haul they might seriously undermine his economy.
I think we’re now seeing a rebalancing of sanctions that will leave in place the ones the West can live with. The author might argue those sanctions will be the weakest ones, but I think it’s too early to know.
My question is why doesn’t Putin continue to reduce gas/energy supplies to Europe? The author is certainly not overstating the effects of empty energy reserves on Europe this winter. I suppose that would reduce Russia’s income.
This war really is a mess and Biden’s rhetoric seems to have left him, and his allies, in a place where they can’t negotiate a resolution.
Trudeau said he is only doing this because Germany asked him to, not because Russia asked him to.
Ok, I got it now. Sanctions are only to be strictly enforced until the moment they are not. Even the word, “sanctions”, seems like one of those cheap words used to cover for the fact that someone carries a very small stick. Any sock puppet leader can announce, “We’re going to slap more sanctions on those bloody bastards!”
I may be out of date but I’m not sure that Russian gas has been sanctioned. There is some sort of pledge by the EU to reduce it over time.
It’s shallow behavior from shallow leaders elected by a shallow and decadent people. Remember the movie Don’t Look Up? The director thought he was satirizing global warming deniers; he was really satirizing Western civilization.
Article is an excellent example of advanced russian trolling: doom and gloom and degenerate westerners who just can’t cope with any hardship. We just have to wait and see who breaks first, won’t we?
Well so far it seems like the Russian economy is doing fine, the price of oil and gas is up, the value of the rouble is up and we’re still buying their fossil fuel s via India. Meanwhile our economies are tanking, and Russia is battering Ukraine into submission on the battlefield.
But, yes, let’s see who ‘breaks’ first. Looking forward to that glorious Ukrainian victory, with their country and our economies in ruins.
I wonder if they are already preparing the festivities for the victory parade in Kyiv? Perhaps the American President can be the Grand Marshall, along side his brilliant and erstwhile side kick, UVL.
Please report back to us in January, when the average temperature dips a bit and the cost of keeping the frost off the kitchen table becomes quite burdensome for the average bloke.