Main Edition
US
FR
September 30, 2024 - 7:00am
As the world’s attention focuses on whether the conflict in the Middle East escalates into a regional crisis, masses of refugees are now making their way from Lebanon to Syria. The Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati estimates that there are one million people already displaced because of the Israeli conflict with Hezbollah, with videos emerging of large numbers of refugees arriving at the Syrian border.
The situation in the Middle East now looks very much like 2015, when massive migration flows made their way to Europe as people were displaced due to the Syrian civil war. Recent estimates show that around one million people made their way to Europe that year, a number eerily similar to the one given by the Lebanese Prime Minister.
Standing between the masses of Lebanese refugees and Europe are Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria and Recep Erdoğan’s government in Turkey. The Assad government sees Europe as having backed the rebels in the civil war and will have few scruples about sending the refugees to Europe. Erdoğan could in theory be more reasonable, but his government has taken a very strong stance against current Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East; since Europe is broadly backing Israel, it is possible that he will view the refugees as Europe’s problem to deal with.
There is also the possibility that the refugees take a more circuitous route to reach Europe. They might travel to countries in north Africa like Egypt, Libya or even Morocco and try to cross into Europe across the Mediterranean from there. Once again, this would be reminiscent of 2015, when Europeans were confronted with chaotic scenes of mass drownings in Italy, Greece and Spain.
Europe is by no means well-equipped to deal with another refugee crisis. The continent is already suffering from deindustrialisation due to high energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The European Union authorities are also making clear that after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the continent will have to stomach harsh budget cuts to reign in borrowing.
Europe is still trying to absorb the large number of refugees generated by the Russo-Ukraine war. According to the United Nations, there are currently more than six million Ukrainian refugees spread across Europe. In Germany alone there are over 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees. It is unclear if Europe could take the strain of another 2015-style migration crisis on top of this.
We are already starting to see immigration-related political instability in many European countries. This summer Britain exploded into anti-immigration riots after the stabbing of three young children in Southport. Something similar happened in Ireland in 2023, when the stabbing of three children provoked mass rioting in Dublin. Immigration is now a massive issue in Ireland, with the emergence of a protest movement and polls showing that immigration is the issue voters are most aware of. The populist ructions in countries like Germany also illustrate the scale of anti-immigration feeling across the continent.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
Subscribe“2024 is not 2015. When the migrant crisis hit nearly a decade ago, Europe had little experience with migration waves of this type.”
It depends what you mean by “of this type”. The wars that were precipitated by the breakdown of Yugoslavia resulted in the movement of large numbers of people. Older people will remember the massive movements of people that happened after the 2nd World War, when (for example) ethnic Germans were expelled from Eastern Prussia, Sudetenland, Silesia, Southern Moravia.
What I assume is meant by this coy “of this type” is migrant flows into Europe of people from vastly different cultural backgrounds.
If by ‘of different backgrounds’ you mean ‘Muslims’ then you should probably include the Albanians and Bosniaks displaced by the Yugoslav wars in that category as well.
I said “cultural” backgrounds. Culture and religion can never be fully separated, but the refugees from the former Yugoslavia were close enough culturally not to cause such serious integration problems. You also have to consider that the Islam practised in Bosnia and among the Bosnian diaspora is of a very modern, liberal bent which is largely unproblematic in terms of compatibility with Western values.
Interesting that Kemi Badenoch has grasped this nettle emphasising that culture matters, something that most people probably accept but that the elite ideology still wants to pretend is not an issue. Just as you emphasise all Muslims don’t cleve to exactly the same culture a more refined assessment is required. Nor for that matter do all Christians have precisely similar cultural values.
It depends on whether you consider your god and interpreters of your god’s message have the right to control (or even influence?) the laws of the land. Most Christians today do not transgress the laws of the land in order to justify their beliefs although this is a fairly recent story. France, for example, only separated itself from the control of the Catholic Church in 1905, when it officially became a secular country. Ireland is a good example of the church ignoring the laws of the land.
In many Muslim countries it is not possible to have a stable elected government, however hard the Western powers press. Almost always, the elected state cannot progress because armed resistance from groups like The Muslim Brotherhood and Isis takes over the control from the elected officials. In Gaza at the moment, our politicians all say that Hamas must be defeated and then elections will follow and everyone will live happily ever after. This is very unlikely. So if millions of Middle Eastern refugees pour into the west, will they recognise the civil law of their new homelands?
Nope they won’t. It’s the secular world vs Islam. It appears Europe might be losing?
About 40% of Lebanon is Christian. I see no reason that the proportion of refugees in this case should be very different because the danger is indiscriminate (bombs).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Lebanon
Germany shooting themselves in the foot once again. Maybe if they don’t want to deal with a refugee crisis they shouldn’t give so much weaponry to the people who force refugees from their homes.
A few weeks ago the author quoted an OBR-report which stated Britain should “prepare for more migration”. A necessity because of the high government debt. But now public debt is a reason why Europe cannot handle migrants. So which one is it?
Sure, refugees are not necessarily the same as migrant workers economically, ethically and politically. Although sometimes planners do not make these distinctions either. But besides all this, it does not seem to me that economists understand the effects of migration – or public debt for that matter – all that well.
To support immigrants you need a growing economy. Your’s is not.
I would argue that the looming refugee crisis has been precipitated not by Hezbollah’s war with Israel, but that the war is an outcome of the actions of the UN and UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) which enabled the ascendancy of Nasrallah and Hezbollah. The UN failed to enforce resolution 1701 requiring Hezbollah to withdraw north of the 12 mile buffer zone on the border with Israel. UNIFIL looked on as Hezbollah amassed a bigger military arsenal than many nation states. None of this would have happened without the UN and UNIFIL’s complicity. They are not peacekeepers but facilitators of terror. The responsibility for the deaths in Lebanon and looming refugee crisis lies squarely with these two corrupt organisations that are de facto Iran proxies.
Has anybody figured out how to stop the illegal immigration we are already suffering yet.
Don’t let them in?
Apparently that’s very, very, very, extremely difficult. In fact apparently impossible to achieve.
I made a non pc suggestion about cheaper boats and docking them in France the other day. It wasn’t well received I believe I was moderated. I put it down to a loss of a sense of humour.
For now it looks like Israel’s bet was right, hezbollah was weak and Iran not interested in direct involvement . That means that the invasion has good chance to be brutal but short. Unlike Syrian war which lasted for two decades and still flaring
They should be welcomed into the UK as refugees, especially the fighting – age men with alot of time on their hands.
Sure bring Hezbollah into your country see how that works. Guess you’re going to vet them first right?
Send them to Iran.
Absolutely.
Why is it always up to the West to take in the displaced? There is a wide, wide Arab and Muslim world where these people can find a familiar culture, language(s), and customs. The West has done quite enough to its own detriment.
Exactly.
Since Iran is responsible for the displacements through ongoing attacks by its proxies’ against Israel let Iran take the refugees. Oh! No! They’d rather the refugees come here so that Islam can take over the continent.