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June 22, 2023 - 1:00pm
With Russian tanks having rolled over its borders, what could give Ukraine security in the postwar period? That is the question being debated in the capitals of allied nations ahead of Nato’s Vilnius summit in July.
For Ukraine, there is one ideal solution to ensure its security: full Nato membership, as first promised in 2008 and bringing with it the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence pact. Though President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this month acknowledged Nato accession to be “impossible” while the war rages, Kyiv has nonetheless been lobbying strongly for the summit to incorporate a roadmap, invitation or explicit commitments on Ukrainian accession and security guarantees along the way. Zelenskyy has even threatened not to attend Vilnius should there not be such a “signal” on Ukraine’s future place in Nato.
However, the Ukrainian leader is likely to be disappointed. The alliance is proving divided over the issue — the UK, Poland and the Baltic states are supporting calls for Ukraine’s accession while others like Germany have been more reluctant to open talks.
With Nato accession a distant prospect at best, the question remains as to what postwar security arrangement to offer Ukraine instead. One proposal put forward is the “Kyiv Security Compact”, an idea developed by former Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Zelenskyy’s office, whereby a group of allied countries would invest heavily in Ukraine’s defence capabilities and make binding security commitments under bilateral agreements.
For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron has overcome his former hesitation regarding Ukraine’s accession to Nato to advocate “something between Israel-style security guarantees” — a reference to the extensive weapons and support given to Israel by the US — and actual Nato membership. However, these are very different concepts: Nato membership entails direct intervention in the event of attack, while Israel-style support does not.
As Macron’s remarks demonstrate, vagueness is a danger stalking these discussions about security guarantees. Another risk is that, given the delays and disagreements surrounding the issue, nations may take matters into their own hands, creating a confused patchwork of arrangements which could even escalate the conflict. This month, Rasmussen noted that, in the absence of a clear path for Ukraine’s Nato accession, “some countries individually might take action”, with Poland and the Baltic states possibly putting troops on Ukrainian territory as a “coalition of the willing”.
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SubscribeIf Ukraine doesn’t get credible security guarantees, then people will be unwilling to invest or live there. Given Europe is already struggling with levels of immigration from much poorer countries it cannot readily absorb, there are 44 million good reasons to support Ukrainian security.
Security against what?
They may have to soon intervene to provide security for Russians.
Security against what?
They may have to soon intervene to provide security for Russians.
If Ukraine doesn’t get credible security guarantees, then people will be unwilling to invest or live there. Given Europe is already struggling with levels of immigration from much poorer countries it cannot readily absorb, there are 44 million good reasons to support Ukrainian security.
I’m not sure any security garuntee can be credible at this point. We promised to support Ukraine 30 years ago in exchange for them turning over their nuclear weapons. Yes, I know Western technocrats have tried to walk this back in recent years, but I lived through it and I remember it. More importantly, many Ukrainians lived through it and remember it, and are convinced that those were the terms. Feeling burned already, why would they believe our words now?
I’m not sure any security garuntee can be credible at this point. We promised to support Ukraine 30 years ago in exchange for them turning over their nuclear weapons. Yes, I know Western technocrats have tried to walk this back in recent years, but I lived through it and I remember it. More importantly, many Ukrainians lived through it and remember it, and are convinced that those were the terms. Feeling burned already, why would they believe our words now?
Maybe France and Germany don’t want to be a part of the grudge match and points scoring between former Soviet Union countries now in the ‘West’, and Russia.
Maybe France and Germany don’t want to be a part of the grudge match and points scoring between former Soviet Union countries now in the ‘West’, and Russia.
This is such a mess, partially, if not fully, because the whole “Ukraine defense” operation is being run by a bunch of American and Atlanticist defense industry lackeys, Iraq War hangers-ons, and neocon sycophants, half a continent away, who completely and willfully misunderstand what is at stake and the entirety of the geopolitical essence of the Ukraine/Russian nexus. NATO, directed by these people on an entirely different continent, is an anachronism, with all the resultant folly that will be another forever war.
Is it a life or death struggle for democracy?
Hmm . . . strange that the U.S. and our Undead President should say so as the U.S. is almost certainly only a democracy in name anymore, and I’m not talking election fraud here. Neither political party represents the interests of the citizens they are supposed to represent, and the “progressive caucus” is perhaps the most laughable joke of all in my country at this point. We are *run* by corrupt and pedophilic billionaire technologists like Bill Gates. The progressive left goes about mouthing at least some semblance of care for the working class and poor, but they went all in on lockdowns, school shut-downs and the latest forever war, which all in there way completely destroyed the working and middle class in this country, especially with the proxy-war caused inflation, which is just a tax on the poor and lower middle-class.
The only way this will be “won” is indeed IF NATO gets involved, but there also needs to be conscription in every NATO country as well, because what this war actually needs is a whole lot of trained infantrymen (infantrypeople?). Even though the woke here are all-in on this war, present them with conscription and it becomes slightly more murky to them and isn’t quite like their precious video games. But this will never happen, or only happen with political costs that are unfathomably steep and a whole generation wrecked.
What a colossal mess.
With leaders like Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu, Russian unity and strategic brilliance will always win.
With leaders like Putin, Prigozhin, and Shoigu, Russian unity and strategic brilliance will always win.
This is such a mess, partially, if not fully, because the whole “Ukraine defense” operation is being run by a bunch of American and Atlanticist defense industry lackeys, Iraq War hangers-ons, and neocon sycophants, half a continent away, who completely and willfully misunderstand what is at stake and the entirety of the geopolitical essence of the Ukraine/Russian nexus. NATO, directed by these people on an entirely different continent, is an anachronism, with all the resultant folly that will be another forever war.
Is it a life or death struggle for democracy?
Hmm . . . strange that the U.S. and our Undead President should say so as the U.S. is almost certainly only a democracy in name anymore, and I’m not talking election fraud here. Neither political party represents the interests of the citizens they are supposed to represent, and the “progressive caucus” is perhaps the most laughable joke of all in my country at this point. We are *run* by corrupt and pedophilic billionaire technologists like Bill Gates. The progressive left goes about mouthing at least some semblance of care for the working class and poor, but they went all in on lockdowns, school shut-downs and the latest forever war, which all in there way completely destroyed the working and middle class in this country, especially with the proxy-war caused inflation, which is just a tax on the poor and lower middle-class.
The only way this will be “won” is indeed IF NATO gets involved, but there also needs to be conscription in every NATO country as well, because what this war actually needs is a whole lot of trained infantrymen (infantrypeople?). Even though the woke here are all-in on this war, present them with conscription and it becomes slightly more murky to them and isn’t quite like their precious video games. But this will never happen, or only happen with political costs that are unfathomably steep and a whole generation wrecked.
What a colossal mess.
If Putin loses this time (and it may be that he already has), then it is unlikely that Russia under Putin or a successor, will feel like trying again for decades, if ever. But precautions must be taken by the West.
NATO membership for Ukraine is asking for trouble at so many levels. However, we should remember that Russia has long said it wants “Buffer Countries” between it and NATO.
Very well, let’s re-build and re-arm Ukraine formidably. Let’s give Russia a solid steel buffer that it will never, ever want to bump heads with again. The sooner the better.
There should be no question of the West reneging, as it is greatly in our interests to do this. And there seems no particular reason for a provocative multilateral defence pact like NATO’s as it seems clear that, with the right sort of help, the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of defending their own country against Russia.
Although it’s cost the Western allies a lot of cash and materials, we should all consider ourselves very lucky (as long as Putin doesn’t throw a hissy fit and a load of nuclear warheads). Ukraine is doing the dirty work for us all.
Western civilisation ended when the USSR auto-destructed. The West remained largely reasonable when in the shadow of Soviet arms. The crazies were tolerated but not empowered, as we had something to be afraid of. It seems to me that being scared stiff of the Russians might be a good thing for everyone, bar the Ukrainians and Balts.
One could have said the same thing about Hitler.
Indeed, to paraphrase Casablanca: “we’ll always have China…”
One could have said the same thing about Hitler.
Indeed, to paraphrase Casablanca: “we’ll always have China…”
Whatever Germany and France would want, they know that letting Putin win in Ukraine is an existential threat.
That’s why they’ve done things no one dreamed they would do even a year ago.
Existential fear concentrates the mind wonderfully.
Western civilisation ended when the USSR auto-destructed. The West remained largely reasonable when in the shadow of Soviet arms. The crazies were tolerated but not empowered, as we had something to be afraid of. It seems to me that being scared stiff of the Russians might be a good thing for everyone, bar the Ukrainians and Balts.
Whatever Germany and France would want, they know that letting Putin win in Ukraine is an existential threat.
That’s why they’ve done things no one dreamed they would do even a year ago.
Existential fear concentrates the mind wonderfully.
If Putin loses this time (and it may be that he already has), then it is unlikely that Russia under Putin or a successor, will feel like trying again for decades, if ever. But precautions must be taken by the West.
NATO membership for Ukraine is asking for trouble at so many levels. However, we should remember that Russia has long said it wants “Buffer Countries” between it and NATO.
Very well, let’s re-build and re-arm Ukraine formidably. Let’s give Russia a solid steel buffer that it will never, ever want to bump heads with again. The sooner the better.
There should be no question of the West reneging, as it is greatly in our interests to do this. And there seems no particular reason for a provocative multilateral defence pact like NATO’s as it seems clear that, with the right sort of help, the Ukrainians are perfectly capable of defending their own country against Russia.
Although it’s cost the Western allies a lot of cash and materials, we should all consider ourselves very lucky (as long as Putin doesn’t throw a hissy fit and a load of nuclear warheads). Ukraine is doing the dirty work for us all.
Russia is winning.
Because now the war has Russians on both sides.
So they can’t lose!
A nation that has gone far beyond mere genius…
Russia is winning.
Because now the war has Russians on both sides.
So they can’t lose!
A nation that has gone far beyond mere genius…
Putin, never having studied western history, was obviously totally ignorant of the disasters that mercenary armies inflicted on Europe in the early modern period.
Little things like the sacking of Rome in 1527, and the death of a third of Germans during the Thirty Years War eventually convinced Europeans to only keep paid, standing armies.
So, nice to see that Prigozhin is teaching Putin that valuable lesson.
Putin, never having studied western history, was obviously totally ignorant of the disasters that mercenary armies inflicted on Europe in the early modern period.
Little things like the sacking of Rome in 1527, and the death of a third of Germans during the Thirty Years War eventually convinced Europeans to only keep paid, standing armies.
So, nice to see that Prigozhin is teaching Putin that valuable lesson.
An uncertain peace will be worst of all for Russia.
Putin has been quite stingy in equipping his “mobiks,” and quite profligate with their lives. HIs destruction of the dam only created a cholera epidemic that is infecting thousands. When you don’t bother to provide adequate medical care for the mobiks, that’s what tends to happen.
Moreover, the one thing Russia can do well is “The Conveyor.” Whether its sending millions to death in camps, or sending 100s of thousands to die in Donbas, that’s the one thing that most Russians are willing to help with–as long as they stay off “The Conveyor.” It can continue indefinitely, as both the 30s and WW2 proved.
If Putin doesn’t stop soon, a whole generation disappears.
An uncertain peace will be worst of all for Russia.
Putin has been quite stingy in equipping his “mobiks,” and quite profligate with their lives. HIs destruction of the dam only created a cholera epidemic that is infecting thousands. When you don’t bother to provide adequate medical care for the mobiks, that’s what tends to happen.
Moreover, the one thing Russia can do well is “The Conveyor.” Whether its sending millions to death in camps, or sending 100s of thousands to die in Donbas, that’s the one thing that most Russians are willing to help with–as long as they stay off “The Conveyor.” It can continue indefinitely, as both the 30s and WW2 proved.
If Putin doesn’t stop soon, a whole generation disappears.