June 19, 2023 - 7:00am
Since Ukraine kicked off its highly anticipated offensive on the 4th June, it has been making relatively marginal gains against what Volodymr Zelenskyy has described as “very tough resistance”. This was, to some extent, to be expected: the Russians have spent months constructing heavy, multi-layered defence lines in preparation for the long-telegraphed operation. Moreover, Russia’s military has improved tactically, while its mobilisation and recruitment campaigns have largely addressed manpower shortages.
Ukraine is attacking in multiple areas such as Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk People’s Republic, with battles continuing along the line running northwards. Strikes are also being delivered against weapons depots and logistics centres deep into Russian-controlled territory.
But despite claims from Deputy Ukrainian Defence Minister Hanna Maliar that the Ukrainian military has registered “tactical successes” at each point of attack, the gains have not been significant. Take Bakhmut as an example: there is the possibility of the Russians abandoning the city if Ukraine can successfully roll back the flanks. But the concentration of forces in the area makes this a steep task.
When looking at the territorial control maps, Ukraine has made minor advances at the cost of a sizeable amount of men, armour, and equipment. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin tried to downplay this fact, alleging “the Russians have shown us [those] same five vehicles about 1,000 times from 10 different angles”. However, the scale of the destruction has been well documented on both Twitter and Telegram.
In the lead-up to the offensive, Russia launched an intense, weeks-long strategic air campaign targeting air defence systems, arms depots, artillery pieces, radar equipment, aviation, troop concentrations, command centres, and more. This may be factoring into the lack of sufficient cover for exposed Ukrainian contingents rushing through mostly flat and open steppe lands in the south. Russia’s air superiority has likewise played a major role creating difficulties for advancing Ukrainian forces.
It should be noted that this operation is still young, and Ukraine has a lot of personnel, equipment, and armour left. The remaining offensive capacity could very well end up grinding down and punching through stubborn Russian defences. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that Ukraine has lots left in the tank, saying: “I cannot say that the offensive has got bogged down. All I can say is that the counteroffensive attempts that have been made so far failed. But the offensive potential of the Kiev’s regime is still there”.
As the counteroffensive enters its third week, Ukraine is on the clock. With the next Nato summit taking place on the 11th July in Vilnius, Zelenskyy needs to prove to his allies that Ukraine is doing well enough to justify the current level of aid. Furthermore, there is a limited window by which to sever or cut deep into Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, and with heavy losses ongoing, this is turning out to be increasingly difficult.
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SubscribeIt’s time for the US policy establishment to recognise that neither side can win this war.
The Russians are winning
Calm down, too soon to say. Give it 5 or 10 years.
Calm down, too soon to say. Give it 5 or 10 years.
In the long run, ‘winning’ is a dubious concept. Germany and Japan ‘lost’ WW2, but are now doing just fine. In the short term, there is huge pain and loss involved in both winning or losing.
The Russians are winning
In the long run, ‘winning’ is a dubious concept. Germany and Japan ‘lost’ WW2, but are now doing just fine. In the short term, there is huge pain and loss involved in both winning or losing.
It’s time for the US policy establishment to recognise that neither side can win this war.
We will see. But what is the generally recognised ratio of military strength needed for successful offense against effective defense? Five to one? Seven to one? Ten to one?
The surprise element (useful near Kharkiv) doesn’t exist. The damn flood and the nuclear plant have limited the geographical options for the attack. Something unusual must develop for Ukraine to make large gains.
It’s not just the numerical ratio of forces; it’s also force make-up and tactics.
Ukraine has practically no air defences and no air cover. That makes it very difficult to sustain an attack.
Secondly, the Ukrainian forces have not been able to train large-unit combined-arms tactics. As Gen Milley outlined, small units have been trained by widely different schools, they are barely trained, and have never had the opportunity to practice large-unit combined-arms tactics. So they are limited to the most rudimentary tactics.
Exactly, the US/NATO are asking the Ukrainians to do something the US military would never do, they know well its suicide, but the neocons just don’t care, they want the Ukraine to fight to the last man, its disgusting
Does it never occur to you that the Ukrainians might not want to give up? They’ve been invaded. Maybe they decided they want to fight the Russians.
Similar to what the Afghans did when they were invaded.
Well some of them are happy to fight, others are dragged off the streets and sent to the front with no training, dying like suckers for the neocons
There was a deal on the table last April, once the war ends. Ukrainians will wish they told Boris Johnson where to go, they won’t take back Crimea, they have lost the Donbass, and the Russians will probably take Odessa and more
Ukrainian ultra nationalists seem to the most deluded people on the planet right now, when will they wake up
I watch a you tube channel called Pavlo from Ukraine. Pavlo is a truth teller. In his videos he shows us how the men of Ukraine,men like him,they get brief visits to their homes,but they are back and up at the front in hours. They want to die,to die a bloody and glorious death to ensure for perpetuity the lasting freedom of their precious country free from all foreign influence or intervention. Pavlo shows us the lives of fear and terror his fellow citizens live. He shows us the weeping mothers in his home village who have had their 16 year old sons torn from their protective arms. Pavlo shows me that everything the BBC tells me is TRUE. Thank goodness for truth tellers like Pavlo.
I doubt Ukrainians really do want to continue the war. But if they do, it’s likely they have been persuaded by their media. Very much as we in the West are immersed in our own media, and most of us don’t realise we are being manipulated.
Well some of them are happy to fight, others are dragged off the streets and sent to the front with no training, dying like suckers for the neocons
There was a deal on the table last April, once the war ends. Ukrainians will wish they told Boris Johnson where to go, they won’t take back Crimea, they have lost the Donbass, and the Russians will probably take Odessa and more
Ukrainian ultra nationalists seem to the most deluded people on the planet right now, when will they wake up
I watch a you tube channel called Pavlo from Ukraine. Pavlo is a truth teller. In his videos he shows us how the men of Ukraine,men like him,they get brief visits to their homes,but they are back and up at the front in hours. They want to die,to die a bloody and glorious death to ensure for perpetuity the lasting freedom of their precious country free from all foreign influence or intervention. Pavlo shows us the lives of fear and terror his fellow citizens live. He shows us the weeping mothers in his home village who have had their 16 year old sons torn from their protective arms. Pavlo shows me that everything the BBC tells me is TRUE. Thank goodness for truth tellers like Pavlo.
I doubt Ukrainians really do want to continue the war. But if they do, it’s likely they have been persuaded by their media. Very much as we in the West are immersed in our own media, and most of us don’t realise we are being manipulated.
What’s the weather like in Moscow?
Does it never occur to you that the Ukrainians might not want to give up? They’ve been invaded. Maybe they decided they want to fight the Russians.
Similar to what the Afghans did when they were invaded.
What’s the weather like in Moscow?
Exactly, the US/NATO are asking the Ukrainians to do something the US military would never do, they know well its suicide, but the neocons just don’t care, they want the Ukraine to fight to the last man, its disgusting
It’s not just the numerical ratio of forces; it’s also force make-up and tactics.
Ukraine has practically no air defences and no air cover. That makes it very difficult to sustain an attack.
Secondly, the Ukrainian forces have not been able to train large-unit combined-arms tactics. As Gen Milley outlined, small units have been trained by widely different schools, they are barely trained, and have never had the opportunity to practice large-unit combined-arms tactics. So they are limited to the most rudimentary tactics.
We will see. But what is the generally recognised ratio of military strength needed for successful offense against effective defense? Five to one? Seven to one? Ten to one?
The surprise element (useful near Kharkiv) doesn’t exist. The damn flood and the nuclear plant have limited the geographical options for the attack. Something unusual must develop for Ukraine to make large gains.
The whole point about winning the Battle of Britain is that the Germans gave up on the idea of invading having without air superiority. Expecting the Ukrainians to now do so just so they can ‘deliver the offensive people are waiting for’ seems reckless in the extreme.
I wonder which of Ukraine’s friends have as their military doctrine the idea that you attack across open spaces knowing the enemy has control of the air without bothering to wait for your own air support, which is still, we are told, being trained.
The whole point about winning the Battle of Britain is that the Germans gave up on the idea of invading having without air superiority. Expecting the Ukrainians to now do so just so they can ‘deliver the offensive people are waiting for’ seems reckless in the extreme.
I wonder which of Ukraine’s friends have as their military doctrine the idea that you attack across open spaces knowing the enemy has control of the air without bothering to wait for your own air support, which is still, we are told, being trained.
What was it post D Day that the Falaise gap collapse happened? 8wks?
Lots of differences of course, but instantaneous breakthrough not usually the norm anyway. Desert Storm it ain’t. Ukraine has the Summer and Autumn and after that may have to find a way to settle for what it has then.
It may be, my dear Watson, that we are nearer the Somme than Normandy.
Defense, defense!
Yes, the Somme. But which side are they?
Amiens Aug 1918 might prove a better historical comparison but we’ll see.
This counter offensive does not look as robust as that of the Crown Prince.
Reversing the lens, can Ukraine expect a fresh American army to come to its aid?
This counter offensive does not look as robust as that of the Crown Prince.
Reversing the lens, can Ukraine expect a fresh American army to come to its aid?
Amiens Aug 1918 might prove a better historical comparison but we’ll see.
Yes, the Somme. But which side are they?
Falaise is a long way from the Normandy beaches. The Ukrainians are still in the ships trying to land, if you wish to use that comparison.
It may be, my dear Watson, that we are nearer the Somme than Normandy.
Defense, defense!
Falaise is a long way from the Normandy beaches. The Ukrainians are still in the ships trying to land, if you wish to use that comparison.
What was it post D Day that the Falaise gap collapse happened? 8wks?
Lots of differences of course, but instantaneous breakthrough not usually the norm anyway. Desert Storm it ain’t. Ukraine has the Summer and Autumn and after that may have to find a way to settle for what it has then.
So how is it that only Africans are showing any common sense. I know,they’re being told what to say by the Chinese.After all blacks and chinks wouldn’t know better than us would they ?
So how is it that only Africans are showing any common sense. I know,they’re being told what to say by the Chinese.After all blacks and chinks wouldn’t know better than us would they ?