February 18, 2025 - 4:00pm
Throughout history it has usually been the case that at the conclusion of a war, punitive reparations are imposed by the victors upon the vanquished, especially if the vanquished started the war.
But Ukraine may be an outlier in being strong-armed into paying punitive reparations for being the victim of an aggressive invasion. That is what has been proposed in the draft contract Donald Trump tried to make Volodymyr Zelensky sign earlier this month. That, in the words of the Telegraph, would “amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity”. The contract would essentially grant America substantial control over Ukraine’s critical resources, including minerals, oil, gas, ports, and other infrastructure and a 50% cut of all revenues Ukraine receives on extracted resources, which overall would “amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty”.
If any version of these proposals came into existence, it would shatter the dream of Western integration held by many Ukrainians, one that tens of thousands have fought, died and been maimed for: what Václav Havel once called a “return to Europe”. Instead, it is more likely that Ukraine will be forced to exchange neocolonial subordination under Russia for the same state of affairs under the US.
Zelensky repeatedly insists that he will “never” accept any negotiated peace between Russia and the US so long as Kyiv is shut out of the negotiations. But it is a brutal fact that Ukraine is in a weak position. With the American superpower steadily disengaging itself from Ukraine and a divided European Union failing to come up with an effective alternative strategy, Ukraine will have little leverage in negotiations with Russia. For all of his patriotic bluster, there is likely a scenario where Zelensky will have little choice other than to go along with whatever Trump and Putin agree, with the alternative being to keep on fighting a gruelling war of attrition without any powerful ally backing it.
Although comparisons have been made with the Treaty of Versailles, Ukraine’s current situation is very different to Germany’s in the Twenties. But one thing the two may have in common is that these sorts of arrangements have the potential to inflame nationalism of the worst kind. Ukrainian deputy Oleksandr Merezhko, the chair of the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, has already warned about the danger of far-Right organisations to the country’s democracy. Though their existence has been easy to exploit for Russian propaganda, it shouldn’t be underestimated. If negotiations begin with Ukraine, the far-Right may try to portray Zelensky as a traitor and coward who sold Ukraine and its sovereignty down the river.
Trump’s logic is simple. America has forked out over $175 billion in aid to Ukraine and there has been no return on that investment. He wants it back, with interest, by any means necessary. In the original document which Trump wanted Zelensky to sign, it states that America and Ukraine desire a lasting “piece” in Ukraine. Although this is a typo, it unwittingly reveals what the Trump administration really wants. The US President’s plan for Ukraine is akin to a mafia-style protection racket, but the protection is looking increasingly limited.
Ralph Leonard is a British-Nigerian writer on international politics, religion, culture and humanism.
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SubscribeWhy do the Europeans just sit around complaining about America? It’s your landmass. If you don’t like the idea than hold your own negotiations or lay out your own demands instead of just virtue signaling self-righteousness.
I think that chairman guy crying at the podium, quitting his speech and needing huggies at the Munich SECURITY council meeting pretty much answers that question for you.
This is exactly the point. Trump is demanding these things because he CAN. The US can guarantee Ukraine’s security. They can threaten Russia with nuclear destruction if nothing else. The EU can’t guarantee it’s own security without the US, let alone anybody else’s. If Trump can get Putin to sign off on an agreement that essentially says that another attack against Ukraine would be construed as an attack on the US and gives the US a permanent presence in Ukraine, that would be a believable guarantee. Trump could well be thinking in terms of geopolitical strategy as well, shifting US military assets out of Germany to Ukraine where they’ll be far better positioned to fight the Russians if we do end up in a worst case scenario WWIII against China and Russia. Given what we’ve seen of Russian military capability and given the geography of the Ukraine, I can’t imagine a direct confrontation between the American military machine and the Russian would go well for the latter. The US already has much the same arrangement with South Korea, albeit without an official peace treaty. That nation’s existence is almost entirely dependent on the US and they’ve done pretty well for themselves, so it’s not necessarily a bad deal. They’re one of the nations almost guaranteed to be on the US side in any sort of conflict with China, so I can see the angle Trump’s playing here. I’m frankly enjoying watching the utopian globalists see how little their internationalist ideals actually count in the face of real conflict. Trump and Putin get to sit at the table and negotiate because they have real weapons and real power to back up their threats. Russia would probably laugh at any threat the EU made, even if they could agree long enough to make it.
Any consideration of which side a direct confrontation between Russia and the USA would “go well for” is too reminiscent of General Turdigson’s reasoning (in Dr Strangelove).
Good point. Europe had three years to negotiate their own deal but decided they weren’t going to talk to the Russians. Now when Donald Trump does the smart thing and starts talking, they want a seat at the table. That’s not going to work.
These talks are part of a mediation. The US is trying to act as a mediator between the two warring parties, an “honest broker” who brings the two parties to agreement. If either party wants to withdraw, fine. There is no agreement unless both parties agree to one. The mediator has no power to bind them.
Mediation can be messy. I’ve been in several mediations, and served as a mediator myself. Basically the mediator meets with each party separately to explore possibilities, as many times as needed. In many mediations (including the two I ran) the mediators use arguably unethical techniques, lying and twisting arms and being a jerk to get the parties so mad at the mediator that they reach agreement on their own to get back at him.
In other words, it’s more an emotional process than a logical one. It can be unpredictable and frustrating, but at the same time a skilled mediator can sniff out a win-win that gets both parties not only to sign an agreement but to be happy with it in the long-term. I think this mediation is the ideal way to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
And while I don’t know of any other mediations Donald Trump has done, he’s a master of the art of the deal. I know his style rubs a lot of people the wrong way — it does me as well. But having worked on many deals in my career, and watched many master dealmakers at work, Donald Trump is probably the best I’ve seen. (Though I worry that age has dulled his skill. He doesn’t seem the man he was.)
Mexico’s Claudia Scheinbaum seems to have figured out how to respond well to Donald Trump. As she has shown, and others have too, Donald Trump is not that hard a bargainer. He always floats crazy visions — his “truthful hyperbole” — but in the end he is always quite reasonable at finding a win-win. He does not insist on playing a zero-sum game, and that’s one reason for his success.
Finally, those people expecting Russia to be punished better think again. Like it or not, Donald Trump doesn’t work that way. If there is a deal here, bringing Russia back into friendly relations with the rest of the world and out of its pariahhood will be a key part of it.
Exactly. And all the fussing the Democrats, Europeans and other assorted ‘screaming mimis’ are doing is too premature. The process is only beginning. Re Trump’s skill being dulled – a number of commentators have noted stateside that assassination attempts have had a toll on him.
(My lengthy and as always brilliant post has been blocked but should be let out of purgatory soon.)
Looking forward to seeing it, Carl.
Vietnam wasn’t our landmass but the yanks were mightily pissed off we refused to join them.
Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan weren’t our landmass but you guys seemingly were desperate for us to get involved.
Grenada WAS UK sovereign territory but you felt it was perfectly ok to invade a Nato ally.
Perhaps Europe will be more than happy to keep out of American proxy wars/destabilisation/regime change adventures.
Then again, if Zelensky agreed to some sort of ‘mineral payment’, Americans would be in the country without boots-on-the-ground, which might serve as deterrent for another Russian invasion….and it would make American taxpayers appreciate that Ukraine isn’t taking advantage of American largesse. The Ukrainians certainly can’t expect more American funding given our own debt situation. At this point it would be politically untenable; Americans believe that Europe should be fighting this war which is in their own backyard.
Trump is determined to alienate the entire world it seems. The idea of Ukraine basically paying reparations for a U.S. proxy war is loathsome. The war could have ended two weeks after it started if it wasn’t for Biden. And while Trump isn’t responsible for the mess in Ukraine, he needs to own the actions of the previous administration.
No nation fights wars out of charity. As loathsome as it seems, every power extracts a price. Europe was forced to dissolve its empires, was divided in half, and a dollar-based global monetary system was the price extracted by the USSR and USA after WW2. Ukraine has more modest offerings so the powers will be looking for a greater share of what it does have.
Precisely right!
Britain fought World War II with funding provided on the Lend-Lease program.
Who mentioned reparations to Russia from Ukraine?
In the first place, it’s hindsight to say that now. In the second place, it’s not at all clear to me what Russia would have accepted and whether Ukraine would have been willing to give it up at that point. I don’t believe there’s been any point since the war began that Russia would have accepted anything less than a guarantee of neutrality and independence for the Donbas region and official recognition of Russia’s annexation of the Crimea. Even after their attempt to decapitate Ukraine by attacking Kyiv directly failed, Russia still had to be making the same strategic assessments as others made. Further, everyone had to be aware of the domestic political situation in the US. The nation is politically unstable and consumed by internal conflict in a way not seen since the early years of the Depression. If Zelensky actually believed Biden when he was given assurance of continuing and indefinite support, then he was a fool for not understanding the fundamental risk that America’s domestic politics would pose. The same goes for Europe. Political instability in the US was plain for all to see by that point. Putin assessed the strategic political situation correctly. Zelensky, Boris, and the EU did not. That’s the bottom line here. Trump or some other isolationist/populist Republican getting elected was a possibility that should have been considered by all concerned. Whether they knew the risks and gambled anyway or failed to consider it, that is their failure.
It’s not like this isn’t similar to what we’d end up with under Biden or some other establishment politician. There has always been a hidden layer beneath all the flowery globalist schlock about rules, order, fairness, and justice, a layer where the real outcomes are still determined by cold, rational calculations of power and interest. Consider how even during the height of globalist optimism, the US defended Kuwait from Iraq but ignored genocide in Rwanda. I think we all know the answer to why that was. Biden and the establishment would have extracted something from Ukraine as well, probably by using connections and diplomatic pressure to make sure American companies got the right contracts with the new Ukrainian government and etc., the same way it was done in Iraq and the other conflicts of the past several decades. The profits were there, accumulating in the corporate coffers of defense contractors, traders, speculators, etc. instead of directly to the government and the people.Trump’s just dispensing with the pretense, rhetoric, and ideology of globalism and he’s either cutting out the corporate profiteers or just giving the people the truth of how the US is benefiting directly. He’s showing how the sausage is made. I’m sure it’s making a lot of people uncomfortable but geopolitics is not nice, and never has been. Trump is betting his administration and legacy on the notion that yes, actually, the people can handle the truth. I suspect he’s right because the US may not have the power to bring the entire planet to heal, but the US still has more than enough to defend its vital interests and protect its people. The rest of the world, well, I’m less sure. They need to get with the times and do it quick, because international conflict is likely to get much worse in the coming decades, and it will probably be generations until, and if, it gets better.
No, he doesn’t. He is trying to deal with the reality he inherited, he has no responsibility to apologize for what Biden’s Admin did.
Anyway, if you know anything about Trump you know he always starts with a maximalist position and expects to be negotiated down from there.
And, fwiw, Zelenskyy was complicit in engineering the first impeachment of Trump back in 2019. He can put that aside in the interest of peace and US national interest, but don’t expect him to refrain from reminding Zelenskyy of his role in all that.
Trump does not need to own the actions of the previous administration. Not at all. That why the Biden regime was booted; Biden was senile & corrupt and gave the government over to Progressive radicals.
I mean, obviously it is not a great situation for Ukraine to be in, but priority number one has to be getting out of the war without being under the thumb of Russia. The Americans can be relied on to get bored and/or start to feel guilty, so if it means letting Donald Trump wet his beak then whatever, do what you have to do. Sooner or later the Democrats will be back in charge in Washington D.C., in which case Ukraine will be in a position to re-negotiate any deal signed with a by-then retired Donald Trump.
The way the Democrats are behaving right now, coming to all the wrong conclusions about why only 31% of Americans have a favourable view of them, they’re going to be out of power for a good, long time.
There’s another way out for Ukraine. Europe has $200 billion in Russian state assets sitting in its banks. The principal obstacle to using this money to buy arms for Ukraine is the German government … But there’s an election on Sunday.
I fully expect to see Ukraine sliced up in the same way that Germany was after WW2 (don’t agree or condone it but it seems inevitable.)
Ukraine without several factors more military support from US and Europe ultimately cannot win this war. The US no longer can afford to maintain current levels and Europe has drained its stockpile with no chance of replenishing them for at least a decade let alone whilst still arming Ukraine.
There’s one other avenue potentially open to Ukraine which seems to be ignored though.
China.
China is breathing down Russia’s neck in the east and would love to regain the “lost” Chinese territories. It would also love to have an economic foothold in Europe, particularly for its EVs.
An “independent” (from Russia, Nato, US) Ukraine, but under “arms length” direction, but in the EU would be economic and political gold. And even if it meant no eu membership it’s still a massive win.
It would also be a massive craw in the throat of the US geopolitically (specifically Taiwan and Chagoa Islands,) and Russia in the East.
It would also put immense economic pressure on Russia thus weakening it on the world stage.
Remember, the Chinese take the long term view when it comes to geopolitics (partly from cultural reasons but also the ability t
I do so being a one party state.)
Listening to Trumps latest rant (and believe me I certainly don’t suffer from TDS) I get the feeling that exactly my suggestion re China was not only discussed but there are indications that it’s exactly what both the US and Russia are terrified of.
Hence the urgency to solidify a deal as soon as possible.
Nice bases the US has all over the world.
Shame if something were to happen to them.
Oh look, it turns out the Americans were just using the Ukrainians to bleed the Russians.
Now they’re finished with them and expect to be paid before abandoning their proxy.
If only someone could’ve seen this coming, maybe by looking at nearly every episode of US Interventionism since the Fall of the USSR…
Oh well, Ukraine shat the bed and now Europe has to sleep in it.
It’s a lot better being a vassal of the US than of Russia. Would you rather live in Canada or Belarus?
With the current state of Canada I’d have to think very long and hard before making a decision. If Carney gets into power I’d probably pick Belarus tbh.
I suggest negotiating a better deal.
Time will tell but I’m assuming Trump is just making an outrageous demand/statement now to soften up Ukraine to accepting something softer, but something they would have rejected beforehand. I could be wrong but this is usually how Trump operates. Look how he proposed tariffs recently and then backed off a bit once the target countries said they’d be more amenable to Trump.
I think Mr Trump likes to use the ‘good policeman and bad policeman’ tactic with all his competitors. For the moment, he’s being the bad policeman with the EU and the good policeman with Russia. I say this with admiration for him, because he’s clearly a good man.
You should listen to the Dragnet police procedural radio play; 50s radio, Jack Webb as Sergeant Joe Friday. Great listening!
Firstly, if it wasn’t for the US, the Russian flag would have been hoisted in Kiev by summer 2022. It’s understandable that the US should demand something back as thanks. Likening this to reparations is just daft.
Secondly, why would this “American economic colonisation” be so bad? Maybe it would be the best and fastest way for the country to get back on its feet and prosper.
And surely such economic involvement by the US would be the ultimate in Western integration? With security baked right in as the Americans aren’t going to let their resources get captured. One author’s mafia-style protection racket is another reader’s pragmatic win-win solution…
I generally consider your comments to be both astute and interesting, but this take seems more than a little naive based on what we know of regimes the Americans have set up over the last 30 years.
Also, surely the point of negotiations for the Americans is to extricate themselves from European commitments and for the Russians to create a satisfactory buffer zone from NATO and/or defang Ukraine so thoroughly that they don’t get any more stupid ideas. American involvement in Ukraine after the war doesn’t therefore strike me as something the Russians would easily acquiesce to.
Economic involvement is nowhere near as disturbing as military involvement and so I would see it as an adequate compromise for the Russians who also can’t demand the moon on a stick.
Yes well the Americans have a nasty habit of being unable to distinguish between economic and military involvement (have a listen to Mike Benz on USAID), which is why I expect Russian recalcitrance.
Aside from that, maybe the Russians cant have the moon, but they can still keep going in Ukraine and a single breakthrough against exhausted and demoralized defenders could be (even more) catastrophic for Ukraine.
Time will tell how it turns out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump make a mineral/gas/oil deal with Putin directly (if he feels he can get away with it, though considering the state of Europe…).
Considering that the 2014 civil war in Ukraine began because of disagreements between pro-Russian and pro-European forces, I don’t think that splitting the country into two parts is a bad thing. In fact, many Ukrainian soldiers don’t understand why they should fight to retake Donbass if the local population isn’t waiting for them there.
It’s a double whammy! Europe, UK and USA guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nuclear arsenal. Now they might be charged for the privilege of recompensing the nations that failed to carry out their promises. It’s immoral and shameful.
It was also immoral to topple their government and talk them into a war they were never going to win (while only supporting them enough to not crumble under pressure).
Turns out the west does a lot of immoral and shameful things, it’s just that most westerners forget as soon as the next manufactured crisis is rolled out and then have the gall to be surprised the next time around. The rest of the world remembers though.
Maybe next time your government wants to play with other peoples lives you’ll remember the Ukrainians would’ve been better off without your “help”.
Talked them in to war? What utter nonsense!
Right… Bojo was just randomly visiting the Dnieper Riviera on an April afternoon with Zelensky to discuss their unending love of freedom and democracy.
Returning to reality… There were negotiations and a tentative deal on the table a month after the start of the war (which offered them basically everything but Crimea back, with some strings attached – but before most of the country was devastated) that the Ukrainians naively refused because they were told the West would take care of them.
It has been reported multiple times in this very publication (& elsewhere) and has also been basically confirmed by Zelenskys negotiator and close confidant, Erdogan and the former Israeli prime minister (Bennett), who were all present.
Out of curiosity, why do you bother reading a publication that doesn’t (only) feed you propagandistic drivel when you already fully buy into it?
The US got > 174 billion worth of real war research, without which they would be spending more than this on ultra complex systems that don’t work – instead of swarms of cheap drones. They have saved a vast sum.
It’s morally bankrupt and will badly damage US rep for some time right round the World with consequences they’ve not computed. But Trump couldn’t care less about that of course, if he can even comprehend it. So little point using that angle. Zelensky’s smart and knows this is all about ‘what’s in it for me’. Europe needs to think the same. Trump won’t be in charge for ever.
That said it’s also difficult to discern a clear US Strategy. Hegseth and Vance’s WWF show now contradicted by much more measured Rubio. Kellogg having to lean with the Boss but without the performative B/S. Military respects him, whereas they haven’t much time for the Draft Dodger in charge. There are thus a couple of adults around at least. Truth is though trump ain’t got a strategy. It seems the standard ‘seat of the pants’ whatever comes into my head today nonsense. However let’s hope a bit more to it behind the scenes.
After the initial sense Trump would do some deal in days it’s clearly bogging down too and this negotiation unlikely to come to as quick a conclusion some may have thought or hoped. That’s a good sign for Ukraine. US are noticing that Putin is going to make fools of them if they show weakness. The German elections are going to be v important too for what position solidifies in Europe. Clearly no real European line poss in advance, but it’s only days away. Danger of course is a tortuous drawn out coalition negotiation but the external and internal threats might just focus minds.
This does not bode well for anyone receiving aid or weapons from the U.S. Trump has effectively signaled that even those purchasing weapons could end up indebted to the U.S. I believe he is using this as a tactic to show the so-called allies—Canada, the EU, and Israel—that if they defy him, he will cut them off and make them pay the price. It’s a governance style reminiscent of the Wild West—more suited to the 19th century than the 21st.
I believe Zelensky is a dead man walking now – he is being dumped. My biggest concern, however, is the long-term destabilization of Europe, where covert wars become more frequent than open conflicts. The major powers are acting with reckless arrogance, while smaller players will find their own ways to subvert the system. This is far worse than the Cold War—at least then, you knew who your enemy was and what they looked like.
Russia will never fully align with the U.S. but will certainly exploit the opportunity. A major conflict between Russia and China is VERY unlikely due to their deep economic ties, extensive shared border—far larger than Alaska’s—and cultural and demographic connections. However, with Trump signaling friendship, Putin will undoubtedly set traps within the U.S. government to advance Russia’s strategic interests.
Do not be surprised if you see Trump moving rags under a lot of people who were not expecting!
I guess the coming months will show how well your predictions work out. I think you are making a lot of unwarranted assumptions, but as Donald Trump likes to say, we’ll see what happens.
Why are you coming to the comment section and complaining about speculative of ideas? LOL
Anyhow, if Trump can ask for repayment of Ukraine, what makes you think he will not use that same tactic for all other negotiations to get a deal (he loves deals)? Trump loves cornering his adversaries where he often has the upper hand (remember asking EU to pay more for NATO and now the conversation is around what NATO?). With Russia and China, he is actually quite reasonable because he knows his position!
As far as predictions go: everything I said so far, there is not one thing that is proven wrong if anything; actually, I was too conservative with my assessments. and I will even go further now and say, Russia’s goal is Iran get nukes! and cough cough with the blessing of US – now you should worry!
What does Russia wants? hmmm
Our leaders, supported by the Media, have collectively got Ukraine into a disastrous situation, that has no good way out. No happy ending is possible. None of the outcomes that each party would consider ideal, would compensate for the pain and suffering, let alone the physical and economic harm. Of the leaders responsible (Biden, Zelensky, Putin, the EU leaders), Biden has thankfully gone. Zelensky will certainly soon also go. We’ll have to accept that some other leaders will continue. Of course, We the People chose those leaders, so none of us are innocent.
What a bizarre piece.
In Versailles, it was the victors who imposed the treaty terms on the vanquished. The “deal” the US is “offering” Ukraine is not being imposed by the victor, but by the vanquished belligerent-by-proxy on its devastated proxy. I know of no comparable situation.
Ukraine economically did reasonably well – despite rampant corruption – until the “partnership” deal with the EU. That deal forced Ukraine to stop its lucrative engineering exports to Russia, without any compensating export opportunities to Europe, Ukraine’s economy deteriorated dramatically.
And far-right influence is not a vague future threat – the overweening influence of the small but violent far-right in Ukraine has been amply documented. They were instrumental in the 2014 Maidan coup, in the ensuing persecution of Ukraine’s ethnic Russians, (which prompted the departure of Crimea and the civil war in the Donbass), and again in scuppering the peace plan platform on which Zelensky had been elected by a landslide.
Europe is fine; we may lack borders or a decent army, but we have the biggest regulations and taxes in the world.
Without America’s direct funding for 3 years, Ukraine wouldn’t still exist. Europe should hang their head in shame. All the major players have had their heads up their backsides until Trump started throwing shade, now their all having the conniptions.
The truth is Europe couldn’t defend itself from an external threat without going nuclear. Our political class have demonised and ostracised the only people who would be capable of manning the army, young white male patriots. This week Germany were organising dawn raids on people who posted spicy memes on the internet, it’s really unbelievable. Do you think the Pakistan and Taliban ex-pats would fight for Europe if it came to war? It’s laughable.
Without the US’ interference in 2014, Ukraine would still have Crimea.
Without the US’ interference in preventing the implementation of the Minsk Accords, Ukraine would still have the four oblasts.
Without the US’ interference in March/April 2022, Ukraine would have a million fewer dead.
The Europeans should hang their heads in shame at being the brainless warmongering cheerleaders they are, but protagonists they weren’t and aren’t.