I have some history in Afghanistan, long ago, but substantial, and have tried to be optimistic on the Taliban here on Unherd since I began posting; explaining my understanding of their history, and where I felt they could end up.
That aid is necessary is a huge factor – but I feel the bigger one is stability is needed to attract foreign investment in the resource extraction which is 100% needed to allow the country to function. 3 Trillion $ is laying there, but massive investment and infrastructure needed.
When I was looking in commodity metal mining to invest in (as I saw the collapse of the stock market – which grows instead so far…but I still distrust it) I found CEO/Management/Company, And the actual metal in the ground, how much and how difficult, were just 2 parts of 3 of the mining stock value. The third variable is geopolitical Risk. Thus Ivanhoe Mines in Congo carry a big discount to any other comparable deposit. No one can mine unless some security exists. (it takes a decade to get a big mine operational, it is a long term thing)
Afghanistan must carry the greatest mining discount Stock value of any place on earth. China is the likely one to get the mines, pipelines, roads, power grid, going first as they have great ability to deal with this sort of risk. This means the Taliban not only have to try to keep the West on side, but show the world they will try to make the people satisfied. Everyone knows how Afghani are masters of the IED, the guerilla attack, and if the people were in revolt new industry would be the best target to bring down the government. Every household has an AK-47, the people must be ruled by consent for the nation to work.
This is why I think it may end up working, China, USA, Russia all need to be shown the Taliban can govern, so they have to govern, not merely rule. They also are much more cosmopolitan from their origin of rural boys sent to the harshest and most hard line boarding schools in The Western Frontier, Pakistan, to memorize the Koran in Arabic (Madrases) and learn radicalized fighting and religious law – then turned onto the urban places to manage them… (Talib means religious student)
As far as the West and aid – this is always done through NGOs – those horrible things run by the most agenda driven Liberal/Lefty (also corrupt) cultural Imperialists. Let us hope they, for once, put their gender politics aside and work on giving aid. If the Taliban go half way, I hope the NGOs do as well (But I doubt it – think of the most Post-Modernist, third wave Feminist university graduate – that is who likely runs it, and the huge chains of corrupt developing world employees tho manage it on the ground.)
PS My optimism is based on people doing what is best.
Also, although my very strong USA (and UK) Patriotism should not like it, I do think the flag picture is really amazing on so many levels – and think it a good sign that they show this symbol as it is coolly ironic, and also shows, I expect, they do it in the same spirit as the original, not just to mock, but with pride too. Even if you despise them for all their cruelties, they did pay their dues to get there.
Last edited 2 years ago by Galeti Tavas
Mike Bell
2 years ago
Apparently, one reason so many government forces just melted away in recent months is that Taliban simply contacted them on social medai/whatsapp etc and persuaded them.
Maybe we have just seen the first offensive where WhatsApp was the major weapon?
I had never thought of that – I am sure it is true, how the world has moved on from what I knew.
rick stubbs
2 years ago
Wait, maybe the Talis will hoist the LGBTI2s flag next? Same one flown over US Embassy which they now occupy. Hope we negotiate its return to US by august 31 so Joe can fly it over WH on September 11 20th anniversary.
Has anyone noticed that the Taliban can tweet while Trump cannot? With the greatest respect, may I suggest that the Taliban have done more to women than grabbing them by the p@%$#?
But snaps to Jack for keeping Trump off Twitter. Doesn’t seem like Biden tweets much. Is it possible that this is because his physical frailty and severe cognitive decline makes this impossible?
I have some history in Afghanistan, long ago, but substantial, and have tried to be optimistic on the Taliban here on Unherd since I began posting; explaining my understanding of their history, and where I felt they could end up.
That aid is necessary is a huge factor – but I feel the bigger one is stability is needed to attract foreign investment in the resource extraction which is 100% needed to allow the country to function. 3 Trillion $ is laying there, but massive investment and infrastructure needed.
When I was looking in commodity metal mining to invest in (as I saw the collapse of the stock market – which grows instead so far…but I still distrust it) I found CEO/Management/Company, And the actual metal in the ground, how much and how difficult, were just 2 parts of 3 of the mining stock value. The third variable is geopolitical Risk. Thus Ivanhoe Mines in Congo carry a big discount to any other comparable deposit. No one can mine unless some security exists. (it takes a decade to get a big mine operational, it is a long term thing)
Afghanistan must carry the greatest mining discount Stock value of any place on earth. China is the likely one to get the mines, pipelines, roads, power grid, going first as they have great ability to deal with this sort of risk. This means the Taliban not only have to try to keep the West on side, but show the world they will try to make the people satisfied. Everyone knows how Afghani are masters of the IED, the guerilla attack, and if the people were in revolt new industry would be the best target to bring down the government. Every household has an AK-47, the people must be ruled by consent for the nation to work.
This is why I think it may end up working, China, USA, Russia all need to be shown the Taliban can govern, so they have to govern, not merely rule. They also are much more cosmopolitan from their origin of rural boys sent to the harshest and most hard line boarding schools in The Western Frontier, Pakistan, to memorize the Koran in Arabic (Madrases) and learn radicalized fighting and religious law – then turned onto the urban places to manage them… (Talib means religious student)
As far as the West and aid – this is always done through NGOs – those horrible things run by the most agenda driven Liberal/Lefty (also corrupt) cultural Imperialists. Let us hope they, for once, put their gender politics aside and work on giving aid. If the Taliban go half way, I hope the NGOs do as well (But I doubt it – think of the most Post-Modernist, third wave Feminist university graduate – that is who likely runs it, and the huge chains of corrupt developing world employees tho manage it on the ground.)
PS My optimism is based on people doing what is best.
Also, although my very strong USA (and UK) Patriotism should not like it, I do think the flag picture is really amazing on so many levels – and think it a good sign that they show this symbol as it is coolly ironic, and also shows, I expect, they do it in the same spirit as the original, not just to mock, but with pride too. Even if you despise them for all their cruelties, they did pay their dues to get there.
Apparently, one reason so many government forces just melted away in recent months is that Taliban simply contacted them on social medai/whatsapp etc and persuaded them.
Maybe we have just seen the first offensive where WhatsApp was the major weapon?
I had never thought of that – I am sure it is true, how the world has moved on from what I knew.
Wait, maybe the Talis will hoist the LGBTI2s flag next? Same one flown over US Embassy which they now occupy. Hope we negotiate its return to US by august 31 so Joe can fly it over WH on September 11 20th anniversary.
What exactly is ‘shitposting’ please?
Lies and rumours, I suppose.
Has anyone noticed that the Taliban can tweet while Trump cannot? With the greatest respect, may I suggest that the Taliban have done more to women than grabbing them by the p@%$#?
But snaps to Jack for keeping Trump off Twitter. Doesn’t seem like Biden tweets much. Is it possible that this is because his physical frailty and severe cognitive decline makes this impossible?