January 8, 2025 - 4:00pm

Sigmund Freud famously claimed there was no such thing as a joke. Listening to Trump’s latest pronouncements on America’s acquisition of Greenland and Canada, Washington’s Nato clients are increasingly inclined to agree. Threatening “economic force” to erase the “artificially drawn line” currently known as the US-Canada border, and refusing to rule out military force to wrest Greenland from Denmark, observing that “we need Greenland for national security reasons,” Trump has made the implicit power relationships of the Nato alliance explicit: the United States is an empire, and the West is its primary sphere of influence.

The relationship, indeed, is not so different from that between Russia and Belarus. That it has remained obscured for so long is the product of both the self-deception of European security elites — for whom submissive compliance to Washington’s whims has for decades been the necessary stance for career advancement — and the delicatesse of previous generations of American emperors and imperial officials, more sensitive than Trump to native mores.

Protests from loyal Atlanticist stalwarts like Denmark, whose Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen insists that America is the country’s “most important and closest ally,” now sound like long-delayed transmissions from another era. Indeed, if Trump can intimidate Nato members Canada and Denmark, he can and probably will do it to Europe as a whole — and the Ukraine war, the outcome to which he is indifferent, presents an obvious pressure point.

Europe’s Biden-era stance against Russia was predicated on the belief that, should Putin turn his gaze westward from Ukraine, the United States would always, in the end, ride to the rescue. This dependency (the product of Europe’s securocrat class, which mocked French ambitions of strategic autonomy), presents the incoming Trump administration with tremendous leverage. The Russian threat, looming in the background, now becomes a force-enabler for Trump to impose whatever demands, economic or diplomatic, he wishes on a weak, increasingly poor and divided Europe.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Putin has made it clear that any future reworking of Europe’s security architecture should happen over the heads of European leaders, through direct negotiations with Washington: this no longer appears a fanciful outcome. In a world dominated by the naked power politics of civilisation-states like Russia and China, the failure of Europe’s ancient civilisation to become a state leaves it, ultimately, at the mercy of a great state, the US, which is something less than a civilisation.

Trump’s naked expansionism is, in its own paradoxical way, a marker of imperial retrenchment. Shoring up Washington’s core empire, including its control of current and future trade routes in Central America and the Northwest Passage is a reversion to America’s 19th century mean as the hegemon of the Western Hemisphere rather than the provider of global order. For Europe, inclusion under America’s security umbrella will come at a hefty price. Trump’s vision of Nato as something closer to an arrangement for paying protection money than the visions of “progressive realism” that animate our diplomatic class may not sound well at security conferences, but at least has the virtue of being true.

In all of this there are few countries more exposed, other than the Baltic states, than Britain. Britain is unfortunate enough to have settled on a policy of pressuring America to involve itself more deeply in Ukraine than anyone in Washington desires while simultaneously running down its own armed forces to the point of near-total dysfunction. Were relations between the incoming Washington administration and the British government warmer than they are, this may have been a less perilous moment: that the British political class could put the country in this position takes a degree of focussed ineptitude that is almost admirable. Why, indeed, should America not just seize the Chagos Islands directly, and remove two troublesome but powerless clients from the equation?

As always, France’s diplomatic elite have a clearer view of things. When asked this morning about Trump’s statements, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot observed, “If you’re asking me whether I think the United States will invade Greenland, my answer is no. But have we entered into a period of time when it is survival of the fittest? Then my answer is yes.” For Europe and for Britain especially, a changing of the guard, removing those who have placed us in this situation, and replacing them with those who can guarantee our sovereignty, cannot come soon enough.


Aris Roussinos is an UnHerd columnist and a former war reporter.

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