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The centre of Europe’s migrant crisis has shifted

Giorgia Meloni's success in tackling migration has not alleviated Europe's wider problem. Credit: Getty

August 31, 2024 - 1:00pm

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was elected on a pledge to tackle illegal migration to Italy across the Mediterranean. Now data suggests her hardline approach — which has seen another NGO migrant rescue ship impounded this week — is reaping rewards.

The Geo Barents search and rescue vessel, operated by Médecins Sans Frontières, was detained for 60 days after the ship disembarked 191 migrants in Salerno, a port city south of Naples. The ship had carried out a night-time rescue operation in the central Mediterranean after crew members saw people falling overboard from a small boat. Out of the 191 migrants rescued, three are women and 23 are unaccompanied minors.

Meloni and her government maintain that the operation of these foreign NGO rescue ships constitutes a major “pull factor” encouraging migrants to make the perilous voyage across the Mediterranean. Médecins Sans Frontières, meanwhile, claims it has “no choice” but to rescue those in need and that the impounding of the Geo Barents was an “arbitrary and inhumane decision”. The ethics of the activities of NGO rescue ships remain a topic for passionate debate: on Wednesday Pope Francis condemned “those who work systematically and with every means to reject migrants.”

Cold, hard facts cannot be ignored, however, and Meloni’s approach appears to be having a significant impact in curbing people smuggling in the Mediterranean. Figures from the International Organization for Migration show a decrease of 63% from the previous year in illegal boat migration to Italy, contributing to a wider 30.6% fall in irregular seaborne arrivals to the EU as a whole.

The ultimate drivers of mass illegal migration flows are, of course, beyond the control of Meloni or any other individual leader — and the migrant crisis never ends, but simply moves elsewhere. While the Italian government celebrated a dramatic year-on-year decrease, the Canary Islands bewailed a 126% increase in small boat arrivals during the same period. The Greek islands also experienced a 57% increase in the last year.

When it comes to illegal migration, good news for one country often means bad news for another, as demonstrated by the EU’s ongoing, bitter internal disputes over “solidarity” in the form of compulsory migrant relocation. In this fraught context, EU leaders have been increasingly shifting their focus to external solutions in order to tackle migration at the source – with Meloni again shaping the bloc’s approach.

A controversial new Italian move to normalise relations with Syria appears to be the latest gambit in an EU programme incentivising North African states to deter people smugglers, while providing logistical and financial support. Having cut ties with Damascus in 2012 alongside EU allies, Italy is now pushing for resumed EU cooperation with the Assad regime, explicitly citing the continued outflow of Syrians into other countries as a reason for the EU to re-establish diplomatic ties.

Whether or not other EU countries follow suit will say much about Meloni’s ability to mould EU foreign policy in line with her anti-migration agenda. The appointment of a new Italian ambassador to Damascus and the hotly-debated impounding of the Geo Barents suggest Italy’s approach will only become sterner in light of its success to date in cutting seaborne migration. It seems, though, that the epicentre of the problem has only shifted elsewhere in Europe.


William Nattrass is a British journalist based in Prague and news editor of Expats.cz

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Michael Clarke
Michael Clarke
2 months ago

Restoring stability to Libya would also help. If the ICC and/or the ICJ opened an investigation into the destruction of Libya that would help restore stability to that country and give its people some justice. (Maybe they have.) And it would help if the Global North focused more on the other fifty or so wars going on around the world at the moment, the extent to which, if at all, the Global North is responsible for any of them (Ukraine and Gaza/West Bank/South Lebanon are not the world’s only conflicts) and what the Global North could do to bring them to an end.

Adrian Smith
Adrian Smith
2 months ago

The best answer is for the EU and all nations to work together to secure their borders effectively. There needs to be legal routes for both genuine refugees and economic migrants, which operate effectively outside the border, before allowing only those who qualify in. Unfortunately the EU, as an institution, is totally incapable of doing its part of that, hence why some individual nations, under pressure from their electorates, are acting for themselves and not necessarily achieving the overall best outcome for everyone (migrants and indigenous population). So whilst theoretically I sort of agree with some of what Starmer says about working closely with our EU partners, in reality it is a total waste of time and worse than that it is just diversion therapy from doing what we as a non EU sovereign country needs to do to protect the real interests of its own population, rather than pander to some perception of how we might be viewed on the world stage.
With effective and fair legal routes in place anyone going outside of those routes is by definition a criminal and the way to deal with criminality is to tip the risk reward balance dramatically against them, which is what Meloni is trying to do. The problem we have at the moment is the system is so soft, and aided by certain NGOs to be that soft, that balance is dramatically in favour of the illegal migration routes.

Arkadian Arkadian
Arkadian Arkadian
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian Smith

In all honesty, I don’t think that will make ANY difference at all. If you have legal routes (as you should), then the usual number of people will come through illegal routes anyway as the source “material” is virtually infinite.

You need to stop the illegal migration one way or another, although it feels like emptying the ocean with a thimble

Adrian Smith
Adrian Smith
2 months ago

I agree those who don’t qualify legally will use illegal routes. It just makes the justification for increasing the risks they face and reducing the rewards they get much stronger when faced with the bleeding heart human rights grifters.

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian Smith

The business model we need to smash first is that of the immigration lawyers.

Sun 500
Sun 500
2 months ago
Reply to  Adrian Smith

Zero asylum. Zero legal routes. Possible temporary worker systems like the Middle East but no routes to citizenship. Asylum is used to gain entry to the west. This has to stop if we are to avoid an Afro Islamic future.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
2 months ago

Chappeau to Ms Meloni; one of the principle planks of her election campaign was that she would do something about illegal immigration and she has duly done so. Conservatives should take note.

That illegal immigration itself acts like a water filled balloon (squeeze it in one place and it bulges in another) is a fact that the political classes across europe largely seem to be unable to get their heads around. The reality is that as long as the perceived rewards of illegal immigration outweigh the perceived risks then it will continue.

The strategy of trying to work with originating countries to deter people smuggling looks flawed; these are not people that these countries want to keep, or in many instances can even afford to keep. Much easier for them to become someone else’s problem.

Chipoko
Chipoko
2 months ago

Stab a water-filled balloon and it will instantly fail and its contents will dissipate.

Lancashire Lad
Lancashire Lad
2 months ago

As usual, the “pontificator in chief” in the Vatican can’t resist coming out with some pabulum about migrants, completely ignoring the criminality that feeds what’s essentially a ‘trade in human beings’.
Well done, Popey.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

They’re all at it. Waste-of-Space Welby was wittering on in HOL last year about the immigration bill being morally unacceptable whilst blithely ignoring the fact that illegal immigration is a crime. Francis is another plump, scented, performative hand-wringing prelate – who happens to be the head of an institution which is one of the largest property owners in the world; surely they would be able to find space in their extensive portfolio for nearly all illegals into europe . . . Ahhh, but would cost wouldn’t it? Words, they’re so much cheaper.

Loco Parentis
Loco Parentis
2 months ago

Exactly. Once I see 10 immigrant families living alongside him in the papal residence, Francis statements will carry more water.

Peter B
Peter B
2 months ago
Reply to  Loco Parentis

His statements will still be just as wrong and immoral even if that happens.

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago
Reply to  Loco Parentis

Minimizing the intentions of somebody who has walked the walk seems easy for you.

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago

There’s no room at the inn?

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
2 months ago
Reply to  Bret Larson

Excellent!

j watson
j watson
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

I’m no religious believer but I know enough that while we can’t know exactly what Jesus would say about illegal migration, we can look at his teachings and have a pretty good idea. JC emphasised love, compassion, and care for the marginalised and the stranger. Surely you’ve read the Good Samaritan Parable? – the importance of helping those in need, regardless of their background or status. So Francis just being consistent even if it’s uncomfortable.
It’s not the Vatican that has failed to tackle the criminality sufficiently. Likes of us in the UK fixated more on Rwanda as a solution than going harder after the smugglers, their organisation and money. That needs to change quickly.

Andrew R
Andrew R
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson
Dr E C
Dr E C
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Hang on JW. Are you pro or anti the Christian message (depending on when it suits)?

Martin Goodfellow
Martin Goodfellow
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

They can stll be helped and treated with compassion, without being allowed to migrate to countries that have no room for them. The Good Samaritan cared for the unfortunate traveller, but didn’t make him a resident of his own house.

alan bennett
alan bennett
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

The Good Samaritan gave him a drink and bound his wounds.
He did not take him home and serve up his daughter as a penance.
Instead he put him on his donkey and sent him on his way.

elaine chambers
elaine chambers
2 months ago
Reply to  alan bennett

Excellent point

Sun 500
Sun 500
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

The smugglers aren’t the problem. You’ll never stop them anyway. The pull factor is. Weak legal system that is easy to game and lots of free stuff. End that. Problem solved.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

“JC emphasised love, compassion, and care for the marginalised and the stranger”

Yes…. except for fig trees, that didn’t produce any fruit for him to eat, despite the fact that ‘it was not the season for figs’ – those he cursed so they withered and died ….

Don’t piss off a hangry JC seems to be the moral here…

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

Maybe the Catholic Church sees a possible future supply of children.

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
2 months ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

I would be very interested to see some verbal response from those who downvoted …

Lancashire Lad
Lancashire Lad
2 months ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

I upvoted, whilst bearing in mind:
“Suffer little children, and forbid them not, to come unto me: for of such is the kingdom of heaven”.
It’s getting to something when i’m quoting the bible! But j watson thinks i should take note of parables, so who am i to resist?

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

Ahh a Protestant? They are the usual ones who think they can parse the intentions of the bible.

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

Not up to the task?

Dr E C
Dr E C
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

Yes & the cruel irony of lecturing from his walled city – built by Pope Leo IV in C9 to keep out Saracen (Arab) pirates…

elaine chambers
elaine chambers
2 months ago
Reply to  Dr E C

Why didn’t he like pirates?

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
2 months ago

I’m guessing that would now cast him as a racist – Labour will probably add “identifying as a pirate” to the ”protected characteristics” nonsense list.

Andrew Thompson
Andrew Thompson
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

And ultimately destroy Christianity too. Good idea Mr Pope.

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago
Reply to  Lancashire Lad

It’s his job.

Francis Turner
Francis Turner
2 months ago

it is IMMIGRATION not migration!!!!

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
2 months ago
Reply to  Francis Turner

If men can be women, I’m sure immigration can be migration. Makes perfect sense.

Ian Wigg
Ian Wigg
2 months ago
Reply to  Francis Turner

It’s “migration” from whence they came and “imigration” from the perspective of their chosen destination.

denz
denz
2 months ago

It seems that a lot of Afghan refugees are going back there for “holidays”. Certainly a lot of the Somalis living in the UK go back to Somalia, for varying reasons, including the mutilation of children’s genitals. For some reason, FGM seems off the radar. However if it was the “far-right” in our midst doing it, I’m sure the practice would receive the attention it deserves

Jeremy Bray
Jeremy Bray
2 months ago
Reply to  denz

FMG is, of course, an extreme conservative practice so is by definition extreme right wing, but somehow it is only native white conservatives that get attacked as extreme right wing – others seem to get a free pass. White privilege in operation?

Bored Writer
Bored Writer
2 months ago

The real cause of the migrant problem, the one whose name dare not be discussed, is of course Islam. Islam has a neutron-star-sized chip on it shoulder. It will not assimilate and its adherents will cheerfully kill anyone who “offends” its tenets. The only possible solution is to “be kind”. To them. Best of luck with that.

David McKee
David McKee
2 months ago
Reply to  Bored Writer

Bored Writer seems to think that refugees / illegal migrants are purely a Western problem. It isn’t. It’s a global phenomenon, and it’s getting worse. Remember Trump, and his promise to build a wall along the border with Mexico? Well, India has built a fence, right round Bangladesh. All 2,000 miles of it.

So no, it’s not a problem with Islam – or with any other simplistic explanation.

Mike Michaels
Mike Michaels
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

Yes David maybe they’ll kill you last. Good little boy.

Anna Bramwell
Anna Bramwell
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

Yet Bangladeshis are Muslems.

alan bennett
alan bennett
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

The Islamic ones are the ones doing terrorism and the mass murders of children, although the Venezuelans give them a close run on depravity.

Btw, Bangladeshi are Muslims, very strict ones at that.

j watson
j watson
2 months ago
Reply to  Bored Writer

And Bored W must be an easily Bored Reader too as you display zero awareness of Christianity and the teachings of it’s founder, challenging and difficult those these sometimes are. Yet ironically rage against Muslims lumping them all ignorantly together as some doyen of religious study.
It’s always a little remarkable how easily some willingly display their prejudice and ignorance on these comments. I think it’s the herd mentality encourages it.

Dr E C
Dr E C
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Can you quote where Jesus said you should kill those who don’t convert to Christianity? I must have missed it…

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

The pomposity is out of control again JW. Go and lie down. What he is saying has nothing to do with Christianity which, by the way, has no ‘founder’. It’s not the WI.

Andrew R
Andrew R
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Virtue psychopathy isn’t going to save them JW, that gnostic utilitarian utopia of yours won’t come to pass.

Ian Wigg
Ian Wigg
2 months ago

I don’t actually understand why the people smugglers actually exist as it appears to be perfectly possible for all and sundry to define as a “needed” occupation priority and come here legally. As an example, there must be hundreds of thousands of Somalians who can put together a bunch of flowers and hence fill our skills gap in the florestry sector

John Tyler
John Tyler
2 months ago

Working together is wonderful so long as the resulting action is effective. We’re the whole of Europe to agree to be tough we might get somewhere; while the consensus is that wringing one’s hands might work for the first time in history the problem will persist.

From a selfish UK perspective, why not rescue illegal migrants and their boats mid-Channel and then set them afloat off the coast of some human-rights heaven such as China or Iran?

David McKee
David McKee
2 months ago
Reply to  John Tyler

Mr. Tyler might be interested to learn that Iran is currently the unwilling host of around three and a half million refugees – mostly from Afghanistan.

Andy M
Andy M
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

Poetic justice, I’d say!

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

Fewer than the U.K. then …

John Tyler
John Tyler
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

I wasn’t being entirely serious, but making an unsubtle and perhaps clumsy point about human-rights activists.

Mike Michaels
Mike Michaels
2 months ago
Reply to  David McKee

Great. They’ll fit in nicely there.

Brett H
Brett H
2 months ago

I wasn’t aware that Médecins Sans Frontières was doing this. It’s hard to believe how foolish they are, and with the money of those who unwittingly donate to them. Of course their actions encourage illegal immigration. it’s a powerful selling point by the people who trade in people that if you try to enter illegally by sea you will be picked up by Médecins Sans Frontières. The only way to resist is to break the back of this business at its source by making clear that if you pay someone to get you into a country illegally not only will you lose your money, you will be returned to your place of departure or another location.

Chris Milburn
Chris Milburn
2 months ago
Reply to  Brett H

Like previously reasonable orgs like the ACLU, Amnesty International, and a few other notables, MSF “jumped the shark” several years ago. They were woke before woke was cool.

William Shaw
William Shaw
2 months ago

So Pope Francis condemned those who work to reject migrants.
He obviously doesn’t know that up to a billion people could potentially invade Europe.

j watson
j watson
2 months ago
Reply to  William Shaw

And you, despite one assumes living in a culture formed by Western Christendom, have zilch understanding of the tenets and teaching behind that religion.

Brett H
Brett H
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

It’s interesting, though, that the tenets you refer to will be smothered by those who have no time for them, and with them the tenets they felt were the only way to live,

Jeremy Bray
Jeremy Bray
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

I suspect the Good Samaritan would have passed on the other side if instead of instead of a traveler set upon be thieves and wounded he had been faced by a vigours young man intent on thrusting himself onto the charity of a foreign tribe that didn’t wish to welcome him.

Jesus certainly didn’t provide any useful parable to cover the situation Europe faces with an influx of foreigners wishing to improve their situation by moving to richer and more stable countries. “Suffer the little children” might not have applied to bearded youth implausibly claiming childhood.

Certainly the slaughter of those who failed to pronounce shibboleth correctly doesn’t seem to have received divine disapproval and Christian crusades against the infidel received papal blessing in the past.

Sun 500
Sun 500
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Being naive and gullible to the point of allowing your Saftey, civilisation and culture to be utterly destroyed certainly wasn’t one one of them.

Andrew Thompson
Andrew Thompson
2 months ago
Reply to  William Shaw

WILL eventually not could eventually. An unlimited supply, an infinite number

Fafa Fafa
Fafa Fafa
2 months ago

To all those wailing about illegal immigration to Europe: kindly make more children, then there would be not incentive for the “perceived rewards of illegal immigration to outweigh the perceived risks”, as Santiago Excilio commented. If European women had 3 children on average, the unassimilated foreigners would only have one incentive: to assimilate or leave. But whatever would happen to self-realization, financial independence, fitness, social activism or getting drunk in Mallorca if they had 3 or more children? Oh no, not me, it is not Me Too, it is definitely Me Neither for the young ladies of Europe!

Brett H
Brett H
2 months ago
Reply to  Fafa Fafa

Yes, if they had children they might take the future more seriously. Who cares about education if you have no children? Who cares about culture if you think men can have periods?

j watson
j watson
2 months ago

What we seem to always forget is the amount of money being made out of illegal migration. This is big business. Think about it – 50 poor souls on a dingy across the channel all paying c£5-6k, and you’ve £250k. The dingy you fabricated in Turkey and drove across Europe. You have a chain of command and a detailed organisation running this.
We just aren’t going hard enough after these criminal organisations. If we can track terrorists down when needed we can track these grifters and hit them hard. Instead we fixate on the poor sods who are trying to escape a situation none of us would find manageable. We don’t know how lucky we are.
(By the way – there is a v good reason the majority are males – it’s dangerous and risky)

Peter B
Peter B
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

Agreed. There’s little more despicable than a people smuggler.
But remember that the “poor sods” are also knowingly engaged in criminal activity here. They are not the blameless victims people make out.
Back to your original point. I’d be surprised if the NGOs don’t have some useful intelligence on the people smuggling cartels. I never hear anything about how they’re helping the authorities to shut down these activities. Are they pulling their weight here ? Or just turning a blind eye to it all ?
Funnily enough, it was the Royal Navy that put the previous group of international people smugglers out of business (the slave traders). So we do know how to do it.

j watson
j watson
2 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

22 yrs RN myself. RN won’t get involved in the Channel.
Have a look at the story about people smuggler – Scorpion. Google it.

Andrew R
Andrew R
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

It’s good to know NGOs are enabling criminal gangs. There are other places for them to go to other than Europe.

Mike Michaels
Mike Michaels
2 months ago
Reply to  Andrew R

They’re UN soldiers and will shortly be doing things British troops may have refused to do.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
2 months ago
Reply to  j watson

I think my finger accidentally flagged you. Sorry.

Steven Carr
Steven Carr
2 months ago

Mass immigration in South Africa has led to the rise of the political party ‘Operation Dudula’.
South Africa is a warning to us all.

Peter B
Peter B
2 months ago

“on Wednesday Pope Francis condemned “those who work systematically and with every means to reject migrants.””
And what did he have to say about elected governments responsibility to their electors to enforce the laws of their country against illegal immigration ? Or doesn’t that matter ?
And what did he have to say about those who “work systematically to enable people trafficking and illegal immigration” and turn a blind eye to criminal activities ?
Aren’t there some instructions in a book he knows about “rendering unto Caesar what is Caesar’s” ?

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
2 months ago

End game, anyone?

Stephen Feldman
Stephen Feldman
2 months ago

If the Sest still needed i skilled migrant labor it would establish registration and job placement services to migrant use. But that tome has passed. The Geneva Conventions need amendment re asylum. And the Pope?

Let him denounce openly Pius XII anti-Semitic migrant policy. Frances, a hypocrite won’t.

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
2 months ago

Would it be churlish of me to mention that until NATO overthrew him, Libya’s Muammar Ghadafi was cooperating in denying migrants’ access to the Mediterranean through that country? And the NATO-supported civil war in Syria vastly increased the pressure?
Yes, Ghadafi was and Assad still is an odious dictator, sitting on some oil. So what? was it all worth it?

Without even getting into Merkel’s 2015 lunacy,

Stupid is as stupid does.

Kiddo Cook
Kiddo Cook
2 months ago

All governments need to support families, promote family friendly policies ; extending child support beyond 2 children would be a good start. After all immigration is only to maintain numbers above the replacement rate and drive down wages. Many European countries celebrate large families and reward parents for their investment in the future but the U.K. prefers to import them. We all know the consequences of two parents working has far greater impact on children than denying them the latest tech., and multiple holidays. If only politicians could break free from surveillance capitalism and the tyranny of the WEF.

Bernard Brothman
Bernard Brothman
2 months ago

People will migrate if they feel life could be so much better in the destination than the origin and if the risks of death or harm in transit are less than the perceived improvement in their lives, they will take the risk.
Destination countries, if they want to stop migration, need to make life for migrants worse (or less desirable). Imagine if upon recuse from the sea, the migrants were arrested and then put on a ship and disembarked on the nearest port or shore point in North Africa. No visa, no entry.

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 months ago

Throw the directors of the NGO’s in jail and their 5 biggest supporters. That would make a difference.

James Knight
James Knight
2 months ago

Mass immigration has been a disaster for Western nations.

Deb Grant
Deb Grant
2 months ago

We can’t allow undocumented economic migrants to make a mockery of legal immigration channels. It’s not good for anyone except people smugglers. It’s certainly not good for genuine asylum seekers because it turns populations against any form of immigration.

That’s daft, because the UK’s existing working age people don’t want to do certain more onerous jobs on low wages. Don’t tell me businesses and public sector employers should pay them more, because that just results in higher prices and higher taxes or cuts in public services for everyone.

The UK isn’t the only country where the sheer number of immigrants in a short space of time has been impossible to absorb harmoniously, but it’s the worst, given our population density. The population has increased by 10 million in 30 years – the size of Portugal, Greece, Sweden and Israel.

International cooperation is essential to get the best solutions for struggling countries and struggling individuals.