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September 2, 2024 - 1:00pm
This weekend’s regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia have revealed significant shifts in the German political landscape, reflecting a country grappling with multiple crises. Although these were only regional elections, their outcomes carry national implications, particularly given the participation of nearly three-quarters of the five-million electorate.
Berlin’s three governing parties received a combined total of around 10-13% of the vote. Meanwhile, the Right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured over 30% of the vote in both states, becoming the first party in Thuringia. Despite this strong showing the party remains isolated, as no other party is willing to form a coalition with it. This leaves the AfD in a paradoxical position: popular, but unable to translate its success into political power.
The main opposition party, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), maintained its hold on Saxony by a tiny margin. But the party now faces a choice: change, or continue to shed votes to the AfD. The CDU’s involvement in centrist coalitions, driven by the necessity of excluding the AfD, has diluted its political identity. Also paradoxically, the rise of the AfD has been fuelled precisely by the migration policies of former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel.
The CDU now finds itself weakened, unable to form coalitions without compromising its traditional stances or striking alliances that would have been unthinkable a few years ago. One such possible alliance is with the newly formed Left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — an option that is currently being explored by both parties. Incredibly, the BSW is now the third-largest party in both states: an impressive feat for a party that was launched just a few months ago.
Sunday’s vote has confirmed that migration remains the “mother of all domestic policy problems”, and that the inability to manage migration effectively has eroded public trust in traditional parties. The AfD’s success can be attributed largely to its hardline stance on immigration, a position that has gained traction even among former Left-wing voters who now support Sahra Wagenknecht’s party.
This development suggests that migration will dominate the upcoming federal elections, turning them into a de facto referendum on Germany’s immigration policies. But opposition to the government’s belligerent approach to the Ukraine war clearly also played a role, especially among young people. Wagenknecht, in particular, has centred her platform around opposition to Nato, the deployment of US long-range missiles on German territory, and the question of détente with Russia.
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SubscribeThe possibility of this occurring in Germany perhaps reflects the more recent political reconfigurations in that state.
First, the bringing together of the smaller states into a united Germany during the 19th century; then the disruption caused by WW1 and the rise of national socialism leading to WW2 and the split between East and West Germany; finally, the reunification in the early 1990s. In other words, a relatively constant state of flux over the past 200 years.
Even in France, there have been successive changes of regime since the time of the Revolution, including having been invaded several times.
This is my point: here in the UK, our history and the development of the first modern parliamentary system leaves us with an entrenched system which will be much more difficult to overturn; but, something has to change. This will become even more glaring if other neighbouring countries manage to do just that, allowing them perhaps to catch up with their populations in terms of negotiating the challenges of the 21st century.
Surely, the old Labour/Tory hegemony can’t survive in its present form for much longer?
As well as the implications of last Sunday for the EU, there are implications for Germany itself, including the possibility of a velvet divorce between east and west Germany. As for Britain, it is time to replace FPTP with the alternative vote system in the light of the ludicrous result of the recent election and the decline of the SNP in Scotland. Now is the time to make the change, which would ensure that Parliament reflects the popular will more accurately. That is essential if Britain is to tackle its many problems.
This is what populist parties are supposed to do – push traditional parties into policy positions that better reflect the will of the people. They don’t necessarily need to win elections to do that. Immigration is clearly the number one issue for parties like the AfD, but net zero is just as consequential. If the CDU adopts immigration reform, yet maintains its destructive energy pilotices, the AfD will get stronger and stronger as the economy gets weaker and weaker.
Indeed. For me, the test is whether – this time – the Germans have truly understood how democracy is supposed to work. I.e. whether or not the political system is responsive to these clear calls from the electorate, or whether the Establishment attempts to bury their heads in the sand on the big policy issues (migration, Green policies and Ukraine) and continue to use lawcraft and their stranglehold on the media to hold back the populist pressure.
If the latter, the effects on democracy and the system will be as destructive as one might remember from the last time the dam broke.
The paradox seems to be that the Establishment parties, in their efforts to keep out those they see as authoritarian, become authoritarian in their behaviour.
The West German political system was never, and never meant to be, a true democracy.
The German ruling class, and indeed the Western Allies, did not want the possibility of another popular (in its true meaning, not as in just being liked…) party gaining power. Neither trusted the people to vote the “right way” so the Constitution was framed accordingly.
It wil be interesting to see how this all ends.
Populist parties are not supposed – by themselves – to push traditional parties in more populist policies. Their aim is – and should be – to replace the traditional parties.
When the mainstream fails, don’t complain about the response.
Also, can we stop with the dozen sets of images to confirm that we are real human beings.
The only reason the approx 50% vote for the anti-immigration parties of AFD and BSW was not a supermajority is because the ‘cruelites’ have managed to dilute the native Germans so much.
Even allowing for some ‘new’ Germans being anti more immigrants the AFD and BSW must have got more like 70% of the Germans.
If they can hold off the AFD for just a few more years they will be able to ensure the native Germans are permanently outnumbered,and thus out voted.
Its the same in other countries, many such cases
Not the case in Eastern German states like Thuringia and Saxony. From a recent check, the immigrant population in Thuringia is supposed to be about 5 percent (of about two million total pop); though admittedly immigrant figs are nearly always out of date/too low.
LOL nice to see UNHERD readers celebrating the return of White Supremacy Nazism. Hey you can only keep a Good German from being a Good German so long. Ask the Herreros in South West Africa-Namibians at the tuen of the 20th Century about how Good the Genocide German are. Fellow Unherd EUROPEANS posters should be careful what they celebrate because the Germans usually start with the weak and the visible Other. Then like a Vampire once they taste blood they can’t stop drinking blood then next thing you know they start knocking on there neighbors door in the middle of the night asking to borrow a cup of blood.
Surely there is a potential agreement between the left and the right over immigration- the right for cultural reasons and the left for the impact on wages and workers.
Yeah White People should be able to agree on ONE thing such as RACISM..Left -Right should not matter RACISM is always an easy sell in Honkkkkee Land.
In politics people vote for the least worst option. In Thuringia mainstream parties are now considered worse than AfD.
That really should make the mainstream parties think about the policies they are offering, because the set of policies they have is worse than AfD. Think about it. Their policies are considered worse than even AfD – they have made themselves worse than the what they see as the worst ever option.
Time for mainstream parties to stop looking at AfD and start thinking about where they have gone so terribly wrong.
You see, that’s the original problem.
If voters choose other parties, it’s not because the mainstream parties policies are bad.
It’s because the voters are WRONG / FAR RIGHT/ FA**IST (pick one, they all mean the same thing, which has no connection to their original meaning).
You just have to jail / terrorise / slander those defective voters, and replace them with more “correct” voters, fresh from university or the immigrant boats
We are already airborne and who knows where we will finish up. Hopefully we have a safe (unlikely to be soft) landing.
This could be the beginning of something bigger. Perhaps a little man languishing in some prison somewhere is tapping away at his keypad as we speak. History does tend to repeat
” many disaffected voters from the centre and the Left are turning to the BSW precisely because it is not the AfD”
Makes no sense. Many disaffected voters from the centre and the Left are turning to the BSW because it is expressly not woke, which all of the mainstream centre left parties now are. (The AfD is also not woke of course, but is not even an option for centre and left voters)
I’m not sure to what extent other EU capitals are waking up to the fact that the results of last Sunday’s elections (with another lander to vote on 22nd September) raise questions about the future of the EU.