January 22, 2025 - 7:00am
As Scotland edges closer to devolved elections in 2026, attention is increasingly turning not only to who will win that contest, but to which party will consequently form a government.
The Scottish Parliament’s electoral system is deliberately designed to avoid any one party being able to form a majority and, with the notable exception of the late Alex Salmond’s extraordinary triumph in 2011, no party has succeeded.
In the first Holyrood elections in 1999, even Scottish Labour in its pomp had to enter a formal coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats to secure a majority. In more recent years, Nicola Sturgeon and then Humza Yousaf supported a disastrous partnership with the pro-independence Scottish Green Party, creating an administration obsessed with identity politics and determined to pursue a thoroughly anti-business agenda.
On its current trajectory, the SNP is again — despite the reputational damage of Operation Branchform — remarkably on course to be returned as Scotland’s largest party, albeit still short of a majority. In that event, a new Survation poll has suggested the most popular coalition government post-2026 would not be the Nationalists and the Greens, or even Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but a grand coalition of the SNP and Labour.
Such a tie-up does, on paper, make sense. Both parties are notionally centre-left and agree on issues such as the winter fuel payment. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar also recently announced his party would be abstaining on the SNP’s latest budget, effectively allowing it to pass, because it committed to removing the two-child benefit cap in Scotland. This was albeit at an unspecified later date and with no money set aside to pay for it. Equally, given the shambolic years of the SNP-Green agreement, it is no surprise Scottish voters are less inclined to favour returning to those dark days.
As former SNP MP Stewart McDonald observed last year: “A coalition between the SNP and Labour, Scotland’s two dominant centre-left parties — similar to the Irish model that saw Fine Gael and Fianna Fail rotate the office of taoiseach — is one we might want to consider in the event of a messy result in 2026.”
Yet the political reality makes such a coalition between the SNP and Labour impossible. Scottish Labour, long confused on the issue of independence, has got its house in order under Sarwar and would be unable to govern alongside a party committed to a second referendum on secession. For their part, the Nationalists could never agree to drop their demands for one. Similarly, the rivalry between the two parties is simply too strong for a government to be effective. Both have been duking it out for dominance for decades, and it feels very much like one party needs to lose for the other to win.
This is not to suggest, however, that talk of a potential SNP-Labour agreement is without consequence. The Scottish Conservatives, struggling amid a surge in support for Reform UK, will welcome the opportunity to try and pull many of Scotland’s unionist voters back from Labour. Meanwhile for the SNP, any narrative that suggests voting Labour does not offer change from the status quo is almost surely helpful electorally.
A week is a long time in politics, never mind 15 months. But the political chasm between Scottish Labour and the SNP is unlikely to shrink before the next election: 2026 could be a messy year in Holyrood.
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SubscribeI think your second to last paragraph is the one that resonates with me. To have five more years of more of the same is something depressing in the extreme, even without the endless talk of independence. This is something that should make Reform or the Tory vote surge, depending on who can presents itself better. Reform has the advantage that doesn’t really exist, so it cannot make mistakes.
Anybody who expresses dislike of the first-past-the-post electoral system used in Westminster elections would do well to look at these alternative systems where no result other than a coalition is possible, in order to realize that however bad FPTP seems, the alternatives are worse.
Both Scotland and Wales should get away from England as fast of possible. Westminster is going to issue another four years of poison.
We will have blackouts because England can’t cope whilst Wales is self-sufficient in electricity. England can’t handle the immigrants. England is killing itself slowly with no culture left. Apart from Shakespeare, what is English culture? You can’t fly an English flag from your flagpole in the garden. You can’t shout, “I’m proud to be English.” You can’t say anything without offending somebody. Terrorist atrocities and other knife attacks occur every day. London controls everything and London is the worst of all. Even tourists are avoiding London.
I think this is an example of “Exaggeration is truth lost its temper”
Not quite sure what that means. I could have gone on and on but England would not care.
The English taxpayer gives £billions to Wales and Scotland. Is that very clever?
England has between 3-4 million Muslims and growing fast. Is that good?
Wales and Scotland have great patriotic anthems. England has ‘Swing Low Sweet Chariot’ which is about slaves in America.
Scotland has one major disadvantage, as do the Nordic countries, of having short hours of daylight in the winter leading to alcohol/drug abuse. Very difficult to solve.
England has more Palestinian flags than English flags.
England is dependent on Wales for its water.
And the list goes on and on and on. But you English guys think you are great because of history but your history is disappearing with each generation. This is not true with Scottish(Scotch) and Welsh history, which are still taught at schools with pride.
Wales is only really self-sufficient in electricity when the wind blows and Connah’s Quay is almost 70 years old.
As I sit here in my lounge I can see two neighbours flying the St George’s flag.
But I agree about London.
Wales is self sufficient but England is not.
How is Wales self sufficient , relying on English Taxpayers money. Without English money, Wales would’nt be able to afford even roads
You say England has no Anthems , we have maybe 2 of the most moving unoffical anthems ever in “I Vow to Thee, My Country” and “Jerusalem” which are English, not British anthems
Which to be honest most National Anthems are cringe, yet these 2 nothing compares
what is English culture, World Culture and not in the way people think
the Problem with England, it’s Language , it’s Culture, it became the World Default. Everyone speaks our language, it’s English Law, English Customs, English Business methods that dominated the world
you ask what is English Culture, What is Scottish, Irish, French culture
Is Scots Haggis, Welsh , Mines
We see the results of English culture, in New York, Berlin, Tokyo, because English culture become the World culture
So we had to share English culture with the world, therefore it loses it’s identity
I’m Part English, Scots, Irish and the most dominant culture out of those is English Culture, be it Literature, the influence of Empire, the dominance of English Music or media such as Bond.
How is Wales self sufficient , relying on English Taxpayers money. Without English money, Wales would’nt be able to afford even roads
you say England has no Anthems , we have maybe 2 of the most moving unoffical anthems ever in “I Vow to Thee, My Country” and “Jerusalem” which are English, not British anthems
Which to be honest most National Anthems are cringe, yet these 2 nothing compares
what is English culture, World Culture and not in the way people think
the Problem with England, it’s Language , it’s Culture, it became the World Default. Everyone speaks our language, it’s English Law, English Customs, English Business methods that dominated the world
you ask what is English Culture, What is Scottish, Irish, French culture
Is Scots Haggis, Welsh , Mines
We see the results of English culture, in New York, Berlin, Tokyo, because English culture become the World culture
So we had to share English culture with the world, therefore it loses it’s identity
so what is Welsh Culture
Richard Burton, Tom Jones,
Please explain it, because that’s how you will explain it, you will note famous Welsh people, make a reference to Mines, but won’t be able to explain what is Welsh Culture.
Not having a go at the Welsh, but you make the point Wales has Culture, England does not, explain. Because Richard Burton a fine Welshman, is one person and not a culture
English culture , what is that, well we see the byproducts of it on a daily basis in everyday life. So when we look at the US, we see the child of English Culture, Laws, Customs, methods of Politics.
When we butt up against the EU , we see the consequences of English culture i.e a more Libertarian English culture to a more statist Continential view
When we look at the modern world , how it does business , we see the results of English culture
I would find it hard to name the results of ‘Welsh culture’
Sure many of this was the Result of the British Empire, but lets me honest , that pretty much means English culture and a pinch of Scots
I’m a Brit 1st and foremost , i fully beilive in the Union , but the nonsense that England has no culture, if England does’nt then neither does Japan, Russia
English culture has been more substantial, more impactful than even US culture, it not only defined the Modern world, it created it, and it still does to this day.No other culture comes close, aside from maybe Ancient Rome
The largest employer in Wales is the Crown.
I’m proud to be English. Very, actually. Now, that didn’t hurt so much, did it?
So much for free speech. The site which believes in it gets offended by people who have other viewpoints.
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