Anyone who believes all or most of the economic data coming from Moscow is a fool. But as even the author states, most of the growth is coming from military spending. On a related issue, India is supporting a genocidal regime in return for discounted gas – it will feel SHAME for decades.
Anyone who believes all or most of the economic data coming from Moscow is a fool. But as even the author states, most of the growth is coming from military spending. On a related issue, India is supporting a genocidal regime in return for discounted gas – it will feel SHAME for decades.
It would be wonderful if the weather got a bit nicer, but I am in my seventies and don’t expect this to happen in time to benefit me. Perhaps it will help my children, though I am not convinced.
It would be wonderful if the weather got a bit nicer, but I am in my seventies and don’t expect this to happen in time to benefit me. Perhaps it will help my children, though I am not convinced.
Fascinating. When all this is over, we are going to have to have a good long think about sanctions as an economic weapon. Is it the nature of Russia’s economy that is making sanctions ineffective? Or have we completely overestimated the effects of sanctions on any national economy?
I would argue that America overestimated its ability to get most major economies to unconditionally sign on to its sanctions regime, especially when, as in much of Europe, the sanctions will, directly or indirectly, hurt the sanctioning country as much as Russia.
It didn’t help that, at roughly the same time as sanctions, the US became more protectionist (e.g., certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act) and also increased pressure on other countries to choose between the US and China.
Also, every country has seen what America can do to them if they depart from American doctrine (e.g., cut them off from Swift) and must consider lessening their dependence on the US at least slightly.
It’s worth noting that Putin prepared for sanctions for many years in the run up to invading Ukraine by building up reserves of gold etc. It will only last for so long.
Sanctions have always been bad at achieving objectives: think Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or Venezuela (my country). Also, it is incredibly easy to launder oil. You mix your black stuff with someone else’s and nobody can track where it came from.
Russia is self-sufficient in most things. Why would they have a problem?
During WW2 they dealt with bigger privations than the absence of US fried chicken and Gucci handbags.
I would argue that America overestimated its ability to get most major economies to unconditionally sign on to its sanctions regime, especially when, as in much of Europe, the sanctions will, directly or indirectly, hurt the sanctioning country as much as Russia.
It didn’t help that, at roughly the same time as sanctions, the US became more protectionist (e.g., certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act) and also increased pressure on other countries to choose between the US and China.
Also, every country has seen what America can do to them if they depart from American doctrine (e.g., cut them off from Swift) and must consider lessening their dependence on the US at least slightly.
It’s worth noting that Putin prepared for sanctions for many years in the run up to invading Ukraine by building up reserves of gold etc. It will only last for so long.
Sanctions have always been bad at achieving objectives: think Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or Venezuela (my country). Also, it is incredibly easy to launder oil. You mix your black stuff with someone else’s and nobody can track where it came from.
Russia is self-sufficient in most things. Why would they have a problem?
During WW2 they dealt with bigger privations than the absence of US fried chicken and Gucci handbags.
David McKee
10 months ago
Fascinating. When all this is over, we are going to have to have a good long think about sanctions as an economic weapon. Is it the nature of Russia’s economy that is making sanctions ineffective? Or have we completely overestimated the effects of sanctions on any national economy?
michael harris
10 months ago
Something wrong with the way we form expectations?
Most media expectations about the Ukraine war are only what the writer wants to happen. Even more so for commentators BTL. And triply so for pessimists (I am one of those).
Last edited 10 months ago by michael harris
michael harris
10 months ago
Something wrong with the way we form expectations?
Most media expectations about the Ukraine war are only what the writer wants to happen. Even more so for commentators BTL. And triply so for pessimists (I am one of those).
Last edited 10 months ago by michael harris
Adrian Smith
10 months ago
“It is worth asking whether those making decisions, in the White House and the European Commission, know what they are doing.”
Is it really worth asking when the answer on so many issues in recent times, not just sanctions, has clearly been a resounding NO!
Adrian Smith
10 months ago
“It is worth asking whether those making decisions, in the White House and the European Commission, know what they are doing.”
Is it really worth asking when the answer on so many issues in recent times, not just sanctions, has clearly been a resounding NO!
Fran Martinez
10 months ago
Why was not the effect of the sanctions on the West “expected”? Just because politicians do not articulate something does not mean it was not expected.
Fran Martinez
10 months ago
Why was not the effect of the sanctions on the West “expected”? Just because politicians do not articulate something does not mean it was not expected.
Hardee Hodges
10 months ago
Sanctions have reduced the ability of the Russians to replace equipment lost to the war. The shells rained on Ukraine are slowing down. Russia may be capable of feeding itself and replacing some consumer goods at the moment but it was already a low standard to begin with. Unclear what happens as oil field production begins to degrade from parts issues.
Germany has decided to self-destruct on the green platform. Will that lead to improvements elsewhere? German skills may move.
Hardee Hodges
10 months ago
Sanctions have reduced the ability of the Russians to replace equipment lost to the war. The shells rained on Ukraine are slowing down. Russia may be capable of feeding itself and replacing some consumer goods at the moment but it was already a low standard to begin with. Unclear what happens as oil field production begins to degrade from parts issues.
Germany has decided to self-destruct on the green platform. Will that lead to improvements elsewhere? German skills may move.
Milton Gibbon
10 months ago
“Russian minister presents overly optimistic forecast of economic growth” haven’t we heard that one before?Another statistical oversight is that if Russia loses 2% of its GDP and then gains 2% back it hasn’t regained its economy, it has still lost GDP. It would take 3 years of 1%GDP growth to regain its former standing.
Russia’s economy being smaller than Italy’s, Canada’s and Australia’s (look it up) the gulf between the West and the rest has never looked so wide. The West is objectively pulling further ahead of everyone else leaving China massively isolated. Are India going to provide a similarly tight ally to Beijing as the EU to Washington? They are the only non-western power in the top 10 and they don’t have the best relations with their neighbour.
Milton I think the comparisons with Italy, Canada and Australia are erroneous. First of all GDP figures are more a reflection of the current strength of the US led Western financial community than of tangible outputs. Purchasing Power Parity is a better but still flawed measure.Russia is totally self sufficient in everything. So a better rule of thumb would be to compare Russia with Canada but with three times the population putting Russia on about 6 trillion. This gives a rough and ready idea of the underlying strength of the Russian economy.
This was the comparison raised by the author, not me. GDP is a pretty fair measure – thus why he used it and why most people talk about it when comparing countries. Self-sufficiency is nice when you are isolated but global trade networks are a better bet in the long run.
I don’t know how PPP makes your point, Russia comes up as one of the worst countries in the world (significantly worse than some African nations). I am not an expert: Purchasing Power Parity by Country 2023 (worldpopulationreview.com)
Perhaps you are referring to a different measure?
The problem is even Russia’ military production is now insufficient to keep the war running for long.
The fact they are forced to use T-55s that are older than me suggests they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And Putin dare not call for a full-scale draft.
This was the comparison raised by the author, not me. GDP is a pretty fair measure – thus why he used it and why most people talk about it when comparing countries. Self-sufficiency is nice when you are isolated but global trade networks are a better bet in the long run.
I don’t know how PPP makes your point, Russia comes up as one of the worst countries in the world (significantly worse than some African nations). I am not an expert: Purchasing Power Parity by Country 2023 (worldpopulationreview.com)
Perhaps you are referring to a different measure?
The problem is even Russia’ military production is now insufficient to keep the war running for long.
The fact they are forced to use T-55s that are older than me suggests they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And Putin dare not call for a full-scale draft.
Milton I think the comparisons with Italy, Canada and Australia are erroneous. First of all GDP figures are more a reflection of the current strength of the US led Western financial community than of tangible outputs. Purchasing Power Parity is a better but still flawed measure.Russia is totally self sufficient in everything. So a better rule of thumb would be to compare Russia with Canada but with three times the population putting Russia on about 6 trillion. This gives a rough and ready idea of the underlying strength of the Russian economy.
Milton Gibbon
10 months ago
“Russian minister presents overly optimistic forecast of economic growth” haven’t we heard that one before?Another statistical oversight is that if Russia loses 2% of its GDP and then gains 2% back it hasn’t regained its economy, it has still lost GDP. It would take 3 years of 1%GDP growth to regain its former standing.
Russia’s economy being smaller than Italy’s, Canada’s and Australia’s (look it up) the gulf between the West and the rest has never looked so wide. The West is objectively pulling further ahead of everyone else leaving China massively isolated. Are India going to provide a similarly tight ally to Beijing as the EU to Washington? They are the only non-western power in the top 10 and they don’t have the best relations with their neighbour.
martin logan
10 months ago
As usual, the writer take a very short-term view of things.
Still, nice to not use current figures. The rouble stands at 93/$, and falling. The lowest it’s been in years. Nabiulina says it’s because of a negative trade deficit.
But what does she know? She’s not a KGB alumnus.
However, the fact that investors are disinvesting in Russia (RTS at 970, and falling) should be of some concern.
The real point is that our main economic goal in all this isn’t to see a Russian economic collapse. It’s to keep Russia hooked on a dead end commodity: oil and gas.
If we can keep Putin’s economy addicted long term to fossil fuels for all its revenue (plus production of weapons that don’t work), it will never be a threat to us again.
martin logan
10 months ago
As usual, the writer take a very short-term view of things.
Still, nice to not use current figures. The rouble stands at 93/$, and falling. The lowest it’s been in years. Nabiulina says it’s because of a negative trade deficit.
But what does she know? She’s not a KGB alumnus.
However, the fact that investors are disinvesting in Russia (RTS at 970, and falling) should be of some concern.
The real point is that our main economic goal in all this isn’t to see a Russian economic collapse. It’s to keep Russia hooked on a dead end commodity: oil and gas.
If we can keep Putin’s economy addicted long term to fossil fuels for all its revenue (plus production of weapons that don’t work), it will never be a threat to us again.
Ssssh. You’ve said the unspeakable.
Anyone who believes all or most of the economic data coming from Moscow is a fool. But as even the author states, most of the growth is coming from military spending. On a related issue, India is supporting a genocidal regime in return for discounted gas – it will feel SHAME for decades.
Anyone who believes all or most of the economic data coming from Moscow is a fool. But as even the author states, most of the growth is coming from military spending. On a related issue, India is supporting a genocidal regime in return for discounted gas – it will feel SHAME for decades.
Ssssh. You’ve said the unspeakable.
Net Zero. Even worse than war. Suck it up.
Net Zero is collective suicide.
So is current use of fossil fuels.
Checked world temperatures lately?
It would be wonderful if the weather got a bit nicer, but I am in my seventies and don’t expect this to happen in time to benefit me. Perhaps it will help my children, though I am not convinced.
It would be wonderful if the weather got a bit nicer, but I am in my seventies and don’t expect this to happen in time to benefit me. Perhaps it will help my children, though I am not convinced.
So is current use of fossil fuels.
Checked world temperatures lately?
Net Zero is collective suicide.
Net Zero. Even worse than war. Suck it up.
Fascinating. When all this is over, we are going to have to have a good long think about sanctions as an economic weapon. Is it the nature of Russia’s economy that is making sanctions ineffective? Or have we completely overestimated the effects of sanctions on any national economy?
I would argue that America overestimated its ability to get most major economies to unconditionally sign on to its sanctions regime, especially when, as in much of Europe, the sanctions will, directly or indirectly, hurt the sanctioning country as much as Russia.
It didn’t help that, at roughly the same time as sanctions, the US became more protectionist (e.g., certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act) and also increased pressure on other countries to choose between the US and China.
Also, every country has seen what America can do to them if they depart from American doctrine (e.g., cut them off from Swift) and must consider lessening their dependence on the US at least slightly.
It’s worth noting that Putin prepared for sanctions for many years in the run up to invading Ukraine by building up reserves of gold etc. It will only last for so long.
While our willingness to fund this war will be infinite?
Longer than Russia’s capacity to continue the war.
It certainly won’t be able to reconquer any territory ever again..
Longer than Russia’s capacity to continue the war.
It certainly won’t be able to reconquer any territory ever again..
While our willingness to fund this war will be infinite?
When this ia all over we will be lucky if sanctions as an economic weapon are our key concern.
Sanctions have always been bad at achieving objectives: think Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or Venezuela (my country). Also, it is incredibly easy to launder oil. You mix your black stuff with someone else’s and nobody can track where it came from.
Russia is self-sufficient in most things. Why would they have a problem?
During WW2 they dealt with bigger privations than the absence of US fried chicken and Gucci handbags.
I would argue that America overestimated its ability to get most major economies to unconditionally sign on to its sanctions regime, especially when, as in much of Europe, the sanctions will, directly or indirectly, hurt the sanctioning country as much as Russia.
It didn’t help that, at roughly the same time as sanctions, the US became more protectionist (e.g., certain provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act) and also increased pressure on other countries to choose between the US and China.
Also, every country has seen what America can do to them if they depart from American doctrine (e.g., cut them off from Swift) and must consider lessening their dependence on the US at least slightly.
It’s worth noting that Putin prepared for sanctions for many years in the run up to invading Ukraine by building up reserves of gold etc. It will only last for so long.
When this ia all over we will be lucky if sanctions as an economic weapon are our key concern.
Sanctions have always been bad at achieving objectives: think Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or Venezuela (my country). Also, it is incredibly easy to launder oil. You mix your black stuff with someone else’s and nobody can track where it came from.
Russia is self-sufficient in most things. Why would they have a problem?
During WW2 they dealt with bigger privations than the absence of US fried chicken and Gucci handbags.
Fascinating. When all this is over, we are going to have to have a good long think about sanctions as an economic weapon. Is it the nature of Russia’s economy that is making sanctions ineffective? Or have we completely overestimated the effects of sanctions on any national economy?
Something wrong with the way we form expectations?
Most media expectations about the Ukraine war are only what the writer wants to happen. Even more so for commentators BTL. And triply so for pessimists (I am one of those).
Something wrong with the way we form expectations?
Most media expectations about the Ukraine war are only what the writer wants to happen. Even more so for commentators BTL. And triply so for pessimists (I am one of those).
“It is worth asking whether those making decisions, in the White House and the European Commission, know what they are doing.”
Is it really worth asking when the answer on so many issues in recent times, not just sanctions, has clearly been a resounding NO!
“It is worth asking whether those making decisions, in the White House and the European Commission, know what they are doing.”
Is it really worth asking when the answer on so many issues in recent times, not just sanctions, has clearly been a resounding NO!
Why was not the effect of the sanctions on the West “expected”? Just because politicians do not articulate something does not mean it was not expected.
Why was not the effect of the sanctions on the West “expected”? Just because politicians do not articulate something does not mean it was not expected.
Sanctions have reduced the ability of the Russians to replace equipment lost to the war. The shells rained on Ukraine are slowing down. Russia may be capable of feeding itself and replacing some consumer goods at the moment but it was already a low standard to begin with. Unclear what happens as oil field production begins to degrade from parts issues.
Germany has decided to self-destruct on the green platform. Will that lead to improvements elsewhere? German skills may move.
Sanctions have reduced the ability of the Russians to replace equipment lost to the war. The shells rained on Ukraine are slowing down. Russia may be capable of feeding itself and replacing some consumer goods at the moment but it was already a low standard to begin with. Unclear what happens as oil field production begins to degrade from parts issues.
Germany has decided to self-destruct on the green platform. Will that lead to improvements elsewhere? German skills may move.
“Russian minister presents overly optimistic forecast of economic growth” haven’t we heard that one before?Another statistical oversight is that if Russia loses 2% of its GDP and then gains 2% back it hasn’t regained its economy, it has still lost GDP. It would take 3 years of 1%GDP growth to regain its former standing.
Russia’s economy being smaller than Italy’s, Canada’s and Australia’s (look it up) the gulf between the West and the rest has never looked so wide. The West is objectively pulling further ahead of everyone else leaving China massively isolated. Are India going to provide a similarly tight ally to Beijing as the EU to Washington? They are the only non-western power in the top 10 and they don’t have the best relations with their neighbour.
Milton I think the comparisons with Italy, Canada and Australia are erroneous. First of all GDP figures are more a reflection of the current strength of the US led Western financial community than of tangible outputs. Purchasing Power Parity is a better but still flawed measure.Russia is totally self sufficient in everything. So a better rule of thumb would be to compare Russia with Canada but with three times the population putting Russia on about 6 trillion. This gives a rough and ready idea of the underlying strength of the Russian economy.
This was the comparison raised by the author, not me. GDP is a pretty fair measure – thus why he used it and why most people talk about it when comparing countries. Self-sufficiency is nice when you are isolated but global trade networks are a better bet in the long run.
I don’t know how PPP makes your point, Russia comes up as one of the worst countries in the world (significantly worse than some African nations). I am not an expert:
Purchasing Power Parity by Country 2023 (worldpopulationreview.com)
Perhaps you are referring to a different measure?
The problem is even Russia’ military production is now insufficient to keep the war running for long.
The fact they are forced to use T-55s that are older than me suggests they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And Putin dare not call for a full-scale draft.
This was the comparison raised by the author, not me. GDP is a pretty fair measure – thus why he used it and why most people talk about it when comparing countries. Self-sufficiency is nice when you are isolated but global trade networks are a better bet in the long run.
I don’t know how PPP makes your point, Russia comes up as one of the worst countries in the world (significantly worse than some African nations). I am not an expert:
Purchasing Power Parity by Country 2023 (worldpopulationreview.com)
Perhaps you are referring to a different measure?
The problem is even Russia’ military production is now insufficient to keep the war running for long.
The fact they are forced to use T-55s that are older than me suggests they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And Putin dare not call for a full-scale draft.
Milton I think the comparisons with Italy, Canada and Australia are erroneous. First of all GDP figures are more a reflection of the current strength of the US led Western financial community than of tangible outputs. Purchasing Power Parity is a better but still flawed measure.Russia is totally self sufficient in everything. So a better rule of thumb would be to compare Russia with Canada but with three times the population putting Russia on about 6 trillion. This gives a rough and ready idea of the underlying strength of the Russian economy.
“Russian minister presents overly optimistic forecast of economic growth” haven’t we heard that one before?Another statistical oversight is that if Russia loses 2% of its GDP and then gains 2% back it hasn’t regained its economy, it has still lost GDP. It would take 3 years of 1%GDP growth to regain its former standing.
Russia’s economy being smaller than Italy’s, Canada’s and Australia’s (look it up) the gulf between the West and the rest has never looked so wide. The West is objectively pulling further ahead of everyone else leaving China massively isolated. Are India going to provide a similarly tight ally to Beijing as the EU to Washington? They are the only non-western power in the top 10 and they don’t have the best relations with their neighbour.
As usual, the writer take a very short-term view of things.
Still, nice to not use current figures. The rouble stands at 93/$, and falling. The lowest it’s been in years. Nabiulina says it’s because of a negative trade deficit.
But what does she know? She’s not a KGB alumnus.
However, the fact that investors are disinvesting in Russia (RTS at 970, and falling) should be of some concern.
The real point is that our main economic goal in all this isn’t to see a Russian economic collapse. It’s to keep Russia hooked on a dead end commodity: oil and gas.
If we can keep Putin’s economy addicted long term to fossil fuels for all its revenue (plus production of weapons that don’t work), it will never be a threat to us again.
As usual, the writer take a very short-term view of things.
Still, nice to not use current figures. The rouble stands at 93/$, and falling. The lowest it’s been in years. Nabiulina says it’s because of a negative trade deficit.
But what does she know? She’s not a KGB alumnus.
However, the fact that investors are disinvesting in Russia (RTS at 970, and falling) should be of some concern.
The real point is that our main economic goal in all this isn’t to see a Russian economic collapse. It’s to keep Russia hooked on a dead end commodity: oil and gas.
If we can keep Putin’s economy addicted long term to fossil fuels for all its revenue (plus production of weapons that don’t work), it will never be a threat to us again.