Cahaly and Trafalgar were not perfect ” Minnesota was not close and Georgia was a battleground state ” but compared to, say, Quinnipiac and You Gov (where Freddie once worked), this man and his company were extraordinarily accurate. Again.
And Doug Rivers of You Gov, who in his interview with Freddie said that “Trump isn’t toast, but he’s browning quickly,” should take Tucker Carlson’s advice and look for a job hanging drywall or opening a restaurant.
Doug said on your videocast that Biden would get 340 EC votes, have an 8-9% edge in the popular vote, that Ohio and Iowa were both “toss-ups,” (Trump easily won both) and gave Biden the following battleground state victory margins:
PA – 6%!! MI – 10%!!!! WI ” 8%!!
C’mon, man!
What is the penalty for failure in the polling business ” an apology?
It is a very close result Freddie! Or will be if it goes that way, but hope still exists, a tiny bit, a whiff…But lets admit, the election was stolen by postal voting. “what we found is that social desirability ” as it was four years ago ” is between 3% and 5%.” This is the point of the secret ballot! The ballot at home can be completely skewed by this effect, let alone being bullied by another house member, of fear of it as they could watch, or demand to see, your marked ballot!
In the militant union days, (ha) the vote by raising hands was very effective at getting the correct outcome. Thuggish reps stood behind known union members who could vote incorrectly – and if they raised their hand at the wrong time a kidney punch landed on them with debilitating pain, a punch low and unseen by the other people voting! This is why voting booths with privacy are used! These postal votes leave every home voter in the position of having to vote correctly or get the punch from a fellow, you cannot know.
Secondly, Vote Harvesting. People who have no interest in the issue and would never get down to the poling place as they just do not care enough, can be collected up as signatures and ballots ordered by interested parties who do it all for them with their permission, including the correct vote answer. If you have so little understanding or interest then you are not casting your own vote, but turning your vote over to someone who does, your vote harvested by an interested party with your consent admittedly, but it is not really your vote, your vote was harvested.
The postal vote is not democracy, but something else, something very insidious. (excepting absentee and medical)
It is a very sad day for the free world when Biden Harris take charge. Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap is how A/C D/C put it so well. Not democracy, but some other thing just happened.
If it’s Biden at 300 in the EC, it would still be very close.
If that’s the outcome, it looks like a 100-200 thousand votes across Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would have changed the result by flipping 30 EC votes.
Arizona also looks to be very close. Some outlets have called it for Biden, but Trump’s down 70k with 475k votes still out. The recent batches of AZ ballots have been coming in for Trump by 18-20 points. That’s a notable contrast with the mail-in ballots Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have been heavily Biden. Arizona’s 11 EC votes for Trump could replace Wisconsin’s 10 in hypothetical (or actual) scenarios.
Five states could end up within a point – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – where various combinations of those states decide the EC majority. That’s a very close election to me.
They’re out on Georgia, probably Nevada, a long way on Michigan… etc.
They skewed one way which helped make it look like they were less wrong, but their science is no less refined than anyone else. He absolutely shouldn’t get to objectively claim any victory here. The big pollsters have got a big error on their hands. Just because Trafalgar gave more support to Trump doesn’t remotely make them more capable of predicting this race, or any future race. They’re like a stopped clock.
Given that in 2016 also Trafalgar predicted the correct outcomes in the battleground states ” it was unique in that regard ” what exactly is the difference, Alex, between “skewing Trump” and “being accurate”?
Perhaps instead of criticizing those who get things right you might want to examine the highly-touted polling outfits who told you over and over that they’d learned from their mistakes 4 years ago, but then made the very same mistakes again.
As I mentioned, they didn’t get many states right when you actually look at the numbers, or polarity. They didn’t predict the outcome. I’m not sure why you think they are ‘accurate’.
They did a better job of showing Trump doing well, but other pollsters had lower error. And lower error is what matters here.
Their approach was a very simple ‘We think Trump will do better, so we’re going to weight him.” That isn’t science at all. That is just good guessing.
You won’t find Trafalgar being used all of a sudden by loads of multinationals, because they don’t have any science behind it.
“Their approach was a very simple ‘We think TRUMP will do better, so we’re going to weight him.” That isn’t science at all. That is just good guessing.”
Alex, you don’t have the facts on your side.
Here’s Tom Bevan, co-founder and publisher of Real Clear Politics, summing up polling performance after the 2018 midterms, when Trump was not running and which was characterized as a big Democratic wave. According to your THEORY, Trafalgar should have done very poorly.
“Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes…making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.”
“Cahaly’s method once again proved solid. In one of the most polled races of the cycle, Trafalgar stood alone as the only polling firm to correctly show a Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida ““ as well as Rick Scott winning the Senate race there.”
So, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Sounds like in fact the man knows what he’s doing.
But I repeat my question: Why cavil with the most accurate pollster of last 3 elections cycles instead of condemning the consistently ” and suspiciously ” misleading major pollsters who were so touted during the months preceding the election by the very media that openly wanted Trump to lose?
What threatens democracy more, Alex, Trafalgar’s record for accuracy, or the use of incompetent and partisan polling to help shape an unruly electorate?
Mick Jackson
3 years ago
Cahaly said “This is the guy who said Hillary had a 70% chance of being President. I dismiss that offhand.” Which means Trump had a 30% chance. I would not bet much against the odd of a two-coin toss being both heads (a 25% chance which is less than Silver’s prediction of Trump’s victory). I think Cahaly can be dismissed offhand.
Ian Steadman
3 years ago
“Like most people I have never even seen a pollster”. So says Thomas Sowell, at minute 3:15 of https://tinyurl.com/y2hvnfks – a quotation which has even more resonance today, given the latest egregious failure of pollsters.
M C
3 years ago
Cahaly’s polls had significant errors similar to the errors of other polls. He’s no more accurate than any other pollster.
However, he gets press from media outlets that lean rightwards, which goes to show again – your media lean determines your coverage.
P.s. he was also very off in 2018, when the usual pollsters were a lot more accurate.
Cahaly and Trafalgar were not perfect ” Minnesota was not close and Georgia was a battleground state ” but compared to, say, Quinnipiac and You Gov (where Freddie once worked), this man and his company were extraordinarily accurate. Again.
And Doug Rivers of You Gov, who in his interview with Freddie said that “Trump isn’t toast, but he’s browning quickly,” should take Tucker Carlson’s advice and look for a job hanging drywall or opening a restaurant.
He sure can’t do polling.
Although it now looks likely that Trump will lose, and Biden is likely to end up with around 300 EC votes so not an especially close result…?
Freddie, please.
Doug said on your videocast that Biden would get 340 EC votes, have an 8-9% edge in the popular vote, that Ohio and Iowa were both “toss-ups,” (Trump easily won both) and gave Biden the following battleground state victory margins:
PA – 6%!!
MI – 10%!!!!
WI ” 8%!!
C’mon, man!
What is the penalty for failure in the polling business ” an apology?
Didn’t Court Astrologers back under Suleiman the Magnificent get thrown off a tower or something if they got it too wrong ?
It is a very close result Freddie! Or will be if it goes that way, but hope still exists, a tiny bit, a whiff…But lets admit, the election was stolen by postal voting. “what we found is that social desirability ” as it was four years ago ” is between 3% and 5%.” This is the point of the secret ballot! The ballot at home can be completely skewed by this effect, let alone being bullied by another house member, of fear of it as they could watch, or demand to see, your marked ballot!
In the militant union days, (ha) the vote by raising hands was very effective at getting the correct outcome. Thuggish reps stood behind known union members who could vote incorrectly – and if they raised their hand at the wrong time a kidney punch landed on them with debilitating pain, a punch low and unseen by the other people voting! This is why voting booths with privacy are used! These postal votes leave every home voter in the position of having to vote correctly or get the punch from a fellow, you cannot know.
Secondly, Vote Harvesting. People who have no interest in the issue and would never get down to the poling place as they just do not care enough, can be collected up as signatures and ballots ordered by interested parties who do it all for them with their permission, including the correct vote answer. If you have so little understanding or interest then you are not casting your own vote, but turning your vote over to someone who does, your vote harvested by an interested party with your consent admittedly, but it is not really your vote, your vote was harvested.
The postal vote is not democracy, but something else, something very insidious. (excepting absentee and medical)
It is a very sad day for the free world when Biden Harris take charge. Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap is how A/C D/C put it so well. Not democracy, but some other thing just happened.
The election was stolen by ballot harvesting and the dumping of fake ballots etc in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
If it’s Biden at 300 in the EC, it would still be very close.
If that’s the outcome, it looks like a 100-200 thousand votes across Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would have changed the result by flipping 30 EC votes.
Arizona also looks to be very close. Some outlets have called it for Biden, but Trump’s down 70k with 475k votes still out. The recent batches of AZ ballots have been coming in for Trump by 18-20 points. That’s a notable contrast with the mail-in ballots Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have been heavily Biden. Arizona’s 11 EC votes for Trump could replace Wisconsin’s 10 in hypothetical (or actual) scenarios.
Five states could end up within a point – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – where various combinations of those states decide the EC majority. That’s a very close election to me.
Trafalgar are far from perfect.
They’re out on Georgia, probably Nevada, a long way on Michigan… etc.
They skewed one way which helped make it look like they were less wrong, but their science is no less refined than anyone else. He absolutely shouldn’t get to objectively claim any victory here. The big pollsters have got a big error on their hands. Just because Trafalgar gave more support to Trump doesn’t remotely make them more capable of predicting this race, or any future race. They’re like a stopped clock.
Given that in 2016 also Trafalgar predicted the correct outcomes in the battleground states ” it was unique in that regard ” what exactly is the difference, Alex, between “skewing Trump” and “being accurate”?
Perhaps instead of criticizing those who get things right you might want to examine the highly-touted polling outfits who told you over and over that they’d learned from their mistakes 4 years ago, but then made the very same mistakes again.
I believe in consequences, not stopped clocks.
As I mentioned, they didn’t get many states right when you actually look at the numbers, or polarity. They didn’t predict the outcome. I’m not sure why you think they are ‘accurate’.
They did a better job of showing Trump doing well, but other pollsters had lower error. And lower error is what matters here.
Their approach was a very simple ‘We think Trump will do better, so we’re going to weight him.” That isn’t science at all. That is just good guessing.
You won’t find Trafalgar being used all of a sudden by loads of multinationals, because they don’t have any science behind it.
“Their approach was a very simple ‘We think TRUMP will do better, so we’re going to weight him.” That isn’t science at all. That is just good guessing.”
Alex, you don’t have the facts on your side.
Here’s Tom Bevan, co-founder and publisher of Real Clear Politics, summing up polling performance after the 2018 midterms, when Trump was not running and which was characterized as a big Democratic wave. According to your THEORY, Trafalgar should have done very poorly.
“Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes…making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.”
“Cahaly’s method once again proved solid. In one of the most polled races of the cycle, Trafalgar stood alone as the only polling firm to correctly show a Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida ““ as well as Rick Scott winning the Senate race there.”
So, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Sounds like in fact the man knows what he’s doing.
But I repeat my question: Why cavil with the most accurate pollster of last 3 elections cycles instead of condemning the consistently ” and suspiciously ” misleading major pollsters who were so touted during the months preceding the election by the very media that openly wanted Trump to lose?
What threatens democracy more, Alex, Trafalgar’s record for accuracy, or the use of incompetent and partisan polling to help shape an unruly electorate?
Cahaly said “This is the guy who said Hillary had a 70% chance of being President. I dismiss that offhand.” Which means Trump had a 30% chance. I would not bet much against the odd of a two-coin toss being both heads (a 25% chance which is less than Silver’s prediction of Trump’s victory). I think Cahaly can be dismissed offhand.
“Like most people I have never even seen a pollster”. So says Thomas Sowell, at minute 3:15 of https://tinyurl.com/y2hvnfks – a quotation which has even more resonance today, given the latest egregious failure of pollsters.
Cahaly’s polls had significant errors similar to the errors of other polls. He’s no more accurate than any other pollster.
However, he gets press from media outlets that lean rightwards, which goes to show again – your media lean determines your coverage.
P.s. he was also very off in 2018, when the usual pollsters were a lot more accurate.