March 14, 2025 - 7:46pm
Democrats in Washington are blowing a big opportunity. Party leaders were seriously mulling a coordinated effort to block the GOP’s continuing resolution to fund the government and prevent a Friday shutdown, until Senator Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signalled that the Senate would not block passage of the bill. Schumer risks making a huge tactical error.
The shutdown strategy, as most political observers well know, became a hallmark of Tea Party-turned-MAGA populism. Republican leadership, much like Schumer today, always despised it because they believed that voters would punish the party for sowing chaos. In Democrats’ case, that risk is always higher because their own voters value the services that tend to be frozen during shutdowns at a higher rate.
Now, though, government workers and programmes are already taking a huge hit from DOGE, so a weekend shutdown would look like a drop in the bucket by comparison. It could also extract some concessions from Republicans which, even if symbolic, would show the party’s deeply disillusioned base that lawmakers are ready to fight.
A lesson many of us on the Right took from the Tea Party years is that grassroots voters don’t fear chaos. They demand it. They will reward you for it. They believe the system is utterly broken and want to see lawmakers gum up the works, even just to make a point.
I posed this theory to a senior Republican source. “Since the Tea Party, grassroots conservatives have become far more willing to embrace hardball tactics that meet Democrats blow for blow. There’s no more willingness to abide concessions for the sake of fake civility or worse, to bring a sense of (fake) stability to governance,” they said. “Democrats never think twice about breaking things to get their way, and they’re the ones reliant on the government operating in the first place — there is no political advantage for Republicans to attempt to calm things down; in fact it’s the opposite.”
Democrats, the source argues, have not historically been Burkean institutionalists. They packed the Supreme Court, for instance, and regularly complain about the Electoral College. In the early 2010s, though, Republican leadership started to learn the hard way that in post-bailout politics, their loyal grassroots voters were no longer prioritising the preservation of the status quo. As Democrats sought to oppose these populist conservatives, they increasingly became the party of the institutions, retreating away from attacks on the FBI, the Pentagon or — my personal favourite — Park Avenue.
Like Sen. Schumer, you may disagree with the substance of shutdown brinksmanship. But there’s really no question it would be popular with the activist base that Democrats need to energise. By the time midterms roll around, other voters will have forgotten or moved onto more salient concerns.
Watching Charlamagne the God call out Schumer on Friday felt like listening to Rush Limbaugh in 2013. “Dems get pushed around and bullied into doing Republican’s bidding,” he said, adding, “I do hate people who are not fighting for the American people but claim to be fighting for the American people.”
This quote from a Meidas Touch video could literally be plucked from the pages of The Blaze during the Tea Party years: “Grow a spine. Vote against cloture. Vote against the CR… The American people are with you… Stop being spineless. Fight for the people.” Activists even trickled onto the streets to demand Democrats vote no on the CR.
Democrats could spend the weekend showing some genuine anger and resistance to Trump. They could be all over media proudly owning the “Schumer Shutdown” label, saying “Damn right this is a Schumer shutdown. This is a crisis and we demand a better deal, no matter what it takes.”
This would have built up goodwill with their grassroots, energised the base, and provided some moral clarity at a time when so many Democrats are lost at sea. Would they get many concessions? Likely not. Republicans would have enjoyed the schadenfreude, as Democrats usually do when the shoe is on the other foot.
Democratic leadership in the Trump era became very risk averse, attempting to benefit from GOP chaos by reigning in its own populists and calmly riding out the wave. That may work in general elections, but this shutdown fight is forcing Democrats like Chuck Schumer — who may now face a leadership challenge like Sen. Mitch McConnell — to understand their grassroots is not the same as their swing voters, and that makes a huge difference between cycles.
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SubscribeI think you’re into something with the observation about a shutdown impacting progressive-favored services more.
I think the fact is that a shut down would give the Republicans an excuse to cut back even further on their disfavored agencies and causes. I think that would be a good thing, and I think that is why Schumer blustered but caved.
Bad idea. Two wrongs do not make a right. What they make is a hypocritical. Ted Cruz and other idiots like him wanted to shut the govt down. Fetterman has the right idea – don’t shut down the govt just to be pissy. Work with others.
Oh, Emily! I had you pegged as a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, and now you’re giving Democrats (pretty good!) advice about political strategy.
It’s been some time since I sent Unherd management one of my “Concerned Subscriber” emails. I think your article just motivated me to send another.
Ha! Although i’m a bit concerned about the notion of you having Emily pegged…
(You might need to look that up!)
Eeh, by gum, Lancashire Lad, that’s a very smutty thought indeed!
Behave yourselves, boys!
It’s interesting to see British and Americans become attuned to each other’s colloquial use of the English language.
Dear Editors,
Although I am not given to writing to the publishers or editorial staff of the myriad publications of which I am a subscriber, I must now register my dismay that your journalistic standards seem to have slipped ever since the Undley Herald moved to this newfangled “on-line” format. On the new “Un-Herd.com” there has been far too much discussion of venereous deviants and this Starmer fellow, and not nearly enough discussion about what is to be done about the gypsies encamped on the common or when Her Majesty’s Government is going to take all appropriate steps to give the uppity “Americans” stationed at the local aerodrome a sharp clip on the snout. Frankly, the whole “inter-net” business smacks of Fabianism, and I am disappointed that the Herald (tragically no longer available in print) has embraced its worst excesses. For shame, sirs, and especially for shame that you have stooped to giving political advice to one of the colonial cabals, the soi-disant “Democratic Party”, of Washington, District of Columbia. For shame.
Sincerely,
Livid in Lakenheath
Emily J. I think you’re a terrific writer/journalist. But this piece is bad advice.
Schumer is a political animal that played a poor hand badly. Once the House passed the CR Schumer had to know that he was in trouble. Dems were going to own the shutdown and the head of OMB had massive latitude on what got paid and what was “not essential”. When the shutdown was over whole swaths of the government would have been shrunk.
Both parties have really good internal polling. Likely the numbers were brutal for the Dems and the MSM is no longer powerful enough to change the story.
Once the CR passed the House he should have moved quickly to reset expectations of the base. He didn’t. That was a massive blunder which will reverberate through his party at least until the mid-terms. Playing to the base that has 20% – 30% support on culture issues is not where anyone should want to be. Schumer did the right thing but moved/caved too slowly.
Enough crossed the floor as we now know.
May be too early to assess political impact but one can see the Schumer argument, and why give Trump and the Republicans chance to blame Democrats for the on-going chaos.
Trump and Johnson still got an up hill task to pass their full Reconciliation bill. The Billionaire tax cuts aren’t passed yet, nor the Billions for all the Detention Centres and Sheriff Joes. Defence Pork may dissipate with Europe’s industries gearing up, and many US folks rely on Wall st for their pension value. DOGE for all the noise miles off the Musk promise of a trillion and with each week the impact of what he’s been doing and who he really is percolates into the pores of Voters.
Let Trump and his fanboys swing for now.