Reform voters will be most difficult for Tories to win back

Which party’s ‘switchers’ will be hardest for Conservatives to regain, according to all voters

The polling also showed no consensus on the reasons for the recent Tory defeat. Four in 10 (38%) members of the public say the Conservatives lost because they weren't moderate enough, while 25% say they weren't Right-wing enough. Meanwhile, 31% of Conservative voters say it's because the party wasn't Right-wing enough, with only a quarter (25%) saying they lost because they weren’t sufficiently moderate.

At the last election, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won the third-largest share of the national vote at 14.3%. It is estimated that Reform splitting the vote cost the Tories directly around 80 seats. In this context, it will be essential for any future Tory leader to win a large share of those voters back. This polling shows that task won’t be easy for two main reasons: the frustration of Reform switchers and the competing diagnoses of failure which could confuse the future direction of the party.

Reform voters are considerably more likely to say their 'switchers' will be difficult for Tories to win back

Which party's 'switchers' will be hardest for Conservatives to regain, according to each party's voters

Farage’s party bled voters from the Conservatives by setting out its stall as being tough on immigration. The data backs up the idea that immigration is a priority of Conservative voters, given that they are 11 percentage points more likely than the general public to think failures on immigration were the reason the Tories lost. More popular reasons for the defeat among the public include: cost of living (40%), scandals and sleaze (35%), incompetence (29%), healthcare (27%) and the economy (23%).

Some former Conservative MPs on the Right of the party who lost their seats at the last election have been vocal about winning back Reform switchers. Former home secretary Suella Braverman told a Popular Conservatism event in July that the rise of Reform UK was “all our own fault” as a result of failing to curb “out of control population growth”. Jacob Rees-Mogg told the same event: “We thought our core vote had nowhere else to go. They did.” He went on: “And we cannot just assume that the pendulum will swing back to us or that all the Reform voters will suddenly repent. We need to win them over one way or another.”

When the leadership candidates were asked by the Spectator’s Katy Balls why the Conservatives lost the last election, only Robert Jenrick specifically mentioned immigration. Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly all said that it was down to failed promises or a lack of focused leadership. Jenrick put a finer point on it: “Failure to address immigration and to heed the warnings that I gave at the turn of the year. That was the real reason.”

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Max Mitchell is UnHerd’s Assistant Editor, Newsroom.

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