Peter Thiel is known for making and landing counterintuitive bets. But relocating to Argentina, his “escape hatch” from the risks of political turmoil in the developed world, may be his most confounding wager yet.

Countless Argentines, after all, have made precisely the opposite choice in recent decades, emigrating to Spain or the US to escape the country’s prolonged political dysfunction. But the country has gained a certain appeal to libertarian figures in the tech world since the rise to power of Javier Milei. Tyler Cowen, a libertarian guru at George Mason University, has also visited in recent years, and I hear that he has induced others in the tech world to sample the pleasures of life in Buenos Aires.

Thiel is likely to run into problems in his move. Argentina is a gamble, as its country risk score and the yields on its bonds readily indicate. Reportedly, Thiel began considering Argentina after seeking to cut his last ties to California, where voters are mulling a wealth tax on billionaires. But as many on the Argentine Right will happily tell you, the country’s Peronist opposition makes California look as business-friendly as Dubai. If Milei stumbles, the party will be back in power, likely reintroducing capital controls that Thiel sought to escape.

But even many Argentines don’t keep their money in the country. Distrust in government and in the financial system is so ingrained that many people prefer to stash their cash in foreign bank accounts or convert it to dollars. There is a good reason for this: in December 2001, the country descended into violent riots amid a staggering economic meltdown that saw bank withdrawals frozen and savings forcibly devalued. Cash practically disappeared from circulation; the country’s provinces began issuing their own Monopoly-money notes to prevent the country from returning to a barter system. Spontaneous order, as Hayek might say.

This helps to explain why Argentines are especially eager adopters of Bitcoin: despite its extreme fluctuations, it holds value better than the peso. Most real-estate transactions take place in cash, and one can speculate whether Thiel’s mansion in the capital was purchased in this manner. Habits like these help illustrate why life in Argentina might appeal to those with an anarcho-capitalist streak, and not only because they have a man after their own hearts in the Casa Rosada (Argentina’s executive mansion). Large parts of the Argentine state that have so far escaped Milei’s chainsaw resemble the caricature of government that libertarians often imagine. Yet this is precisely why many Argentines support efforts to shrink it.

Some have speculated that what Thiel is really hedging against, with his Argentine gambit, is more apocalyptic — namely, the risk of nuclear war in the developed world. Even his escape hatch has an escape hatch: he has also obtained property in Uruguay, near the resort city of Punta del Este, a perfect spot for a doomsday bunker.

Uruguay, unlike its neighbor, is eminently stable and grabs far fewer international headlines. Thiel has been advised well by his Argentine friends — maintaining a place in Buenos Aires for excitement and a place in Punta for relaxation is common practice among the country’s elites. According to reports, Thiel has dined with Argentine intellectuals — a combative bunch — in Buenos Aires, an experience which seems to have proved amenable to his tastes. If things go south, there’s always the opposite bank of the Río de la Plata.

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Nick Burns is associate editor at The Hedgehog Review and was previously editor at Americas Quarterly.

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