What I am drowning in is a sea of projections & computer models – and not being told their assumptions.
I am told that the benefits of lockdowns/tiers will take 2 or 3 weeks to take effect. Yet Liverpool is seeing a drop in positive cases already – why?
Deaths from other causes are far higher than from/with Corvid yet we do not receive these figures on a daily basis.
There is no context given to judge the seriousness of Corvid, all the media seem to just frighten people. Unfortunately most do not have the time/inclination/numeracy to understand this.
Do not kid yourself that data is not designed to engage your emotions, that is exactly the point of all the (misleading) graphs.
Unable to wheedle out any bad news from the current Liverpool data, the BBC decide to go for full ‘Italy in March’ coverage of a Liverpool hospital. And lo and behold mass testing came to pass. Shameless.
Andrew Harvey
3 years ago
Sorry, but reason, data and evidence are exactly what is needed right now, and exactly what we are not be provided with. Where is the cost/benefit analysis behind the governments actions? How many quality adjusted years of life are we gaining, and at what cost, by locking down? This isn’t a difficult exercise (using reasonable assumptions) and should be the basis of the governments actions, but it’s no where to be seen.
I would include C4 News, ITV (Peston) and Sky in that. Oh and chuck the Grauniad in for good measure!
Warren Alexander
3 years ago
The government, knowing full well that their appalling overreaction to covid has resulted in the devastation of our economy, the destruction of hundreds of thousands of jobs and businesses, the deaths of countless thousands from the lockdown and not from covid, now needs to find a way out of the mess of their own creation, that absolves them from any blame.
By ordering a lockdown, at a point in the natural history of the virus when it is likely to be fading (and the statistics seem to be pointing to a reduction in the already lower rate of infections), they can claim, in four or five weeks, that their “decisive action” is responsible for saving us from this disease.
Unfortunately most people are-tragically.Try having a reasoned discussion about this and prepare to be amazed at the lack of knowledge.
Alex Lekas
3 years ago
what is the end game and what does “safe” look like? To the latter question, I suggest that no one has any idea, meaning that no one will be able to recognize a ‘safe’ environment. In more concrete terms, however, is safe zero new cases? Is it X cases during Y period of time? Because this could, ostensibly, continue for some time at an enormous economic and social cost that only a few are talking about, almost none of them holding political office.
This week, the BBC released ‘Isolation, In your words,’ a song cycle, commissioned as part of the Culture in Quarantine series. This is absolutely perverse. Isolation is not the natural state of people. Even loners will interact with people from time to time. I don’t recall a time when “cases” was another word for hospitalizations or deaths, or a time when man thought a virus could be eliminated by hiding from it. There is enough data to know which populations are mostly adversely affected, yet again, the approach is to treat all as being under equal threat.
End game is never discussed. Here in NZ we have (for now) eliminated it, but there is absolutely no consideration anywhere of what we do if (when) no vaccine is forthcoming and the rest of the world learns to live with it.
Go Away Please
3 years ago
Some very rational comments for this article. I enjoyed reading it. Many thanks Elizabeth. After all we are more than just rational beings. And often, we aren’t even that.
Michael Whittock
3 years ago
Thankyou Elizabeth for this article. Very important to be reminded how important the inner life is. As the Man said ” You shall not live by bread alone”.
Rickard Gardell
3 years ago
Whats wrong with actual data? For the last two weeks covid cases in the uk has been stable between 20-25,000. This means it is not growing and has reached a peak, which questions the purpose of a lockdown. Just like last time…..
James Moss
3 years ago
Who on earth would want to quantify the effects? It’s much easier being able to refer to all the terrible consequences without any quantification of any of them and simply assert that they are far worse than the alternative.
A few folks like Toby Young had a stab at such quantification back in the Spring. His analysis got laughed at. He learnt his lesson.
Now the favoured approach is to claim there is no virus left and all the deaths are faked. Much easier.
I am not drowning in a sea of graphs & figure.
What I am drowning in is a sea of projections & computer models – and not being told their assumptions.
I am told that the benefits of lockdowns/tiers will take 2 or 3 weeks to take effect. Yet Liverpool is seeing a drop in positive cases already – why?
Deaths from other causes are far higher than from/with Corvid yet we do not receive these figures on a daily basis.
There is no context given to judge the seriousness of Corvid, all the media seem to just frighten people. Unfortunately most do not have the time/inclination/numeracy to understand this.
Do not kid yourself that data is not designed to engage your emotions, that is exactly the point of all the (misleading) graphs.
Garbage in garbage out. There are serious doubts about the tests on which all of the governments strategy is based.
Per Nick’s thoughts, perhaps the garbage is intentional. That should be a more prevalent concern.
mf
Unable to wheedle out any bad news from the current Liverpool data, the BBC decide to go for full ‘Italy in March’ coverage of a Liverpool hospital.
And lo and behold mass testing came to pass.
Shameless.
Sorry, but reason, data and evidence are exactly what is needed right now, and exactly what we are not be provided with. Where is the cost/benefit analysis behind the governments actions? How many quality adjusted years of life are we gaining, and at what cost, by locking down? This isn’t a difficult exercise (using reasonable assumptions) and should be the basis of the governments actions, but it’s no where to be seen.
More guff from the BBC is the last thing we need.
I would include C4 News, ITV (Peston) and Sky in that. Oh and chuck the Grauniad in for good measure!
The government, knowing full well that their appalling overreaction to covid has resulted in the devastation of our economy, the destruction of hundreds of thousands of jobs and businesses, the deaths of countless thousands from the lockdown and not from covid, now needs to find a way out of the mess of their own creation, that absolves them from any blame.
By ordering a lockdown, at a point in the natural history of the virus when it is likely to be fading (and the statistics seem to be pointing to a reduction in the already lower rate of infections), they can claim, in four or five weeks, that their “decisive action” is responsible for saving us from this disease.
They must think we are all fools.
Unfortunately most people are-tragically.Try having a reasoned discussion about this and prepare to be amazed at the lack of knowledge.
what is the end game and what does “safe” look like? To the latter question, I suggest that no one has any idea, meaning that no one will be able to recognize a ‘safe’ environment. In more concrete terms, however, is safe zero new cases? Is it X cases during Y period of time? Because this could, ostensibly, continue for some time at an enormous economic and social cost that only a few are talking about, almost none of them holding political office.
This week, the BBC released ‘Isolation, In your words,’ a song cycle, commissioned as part of the Culture in Quarantine series.
This is absolutely perverse. Isolation is not the natural state of people. Even loners will interact with people from time to time. I don’t recall a time when “cases” was another word for hospitalizations or deaths, or a time when man thought a virus could be eliminated by hiding from it. There is enough data to know which populations are mostly adversely affected, yet again, the approach is to treat all as being under equal threat.
End game is never discussed. Here in NZ we have (for now) eliminated it, but there is absolutely no consideration anywhere of what we do if (when) no vaccine is forthcoming and the rest of the world learns to live with it.
Some very rational comments for this article.
I enjoyed reading it. Many thanks Elizabeth. After all we are more than just rational beings. And often, we aren’t even that.
Thankyou Elizabeth for this article. Very important to be reminded how important the inner life is. As the Man said ” You shall not live by bread alone”.
Whats wrong with actual data? For the last two weeks covid cases in the uk has been stable between 20-25,000. This means it is not growing and has reached a peak, which questions the purpose of a lockdown. Just like last time…..
Who on earth would want to quantify the effects? It’s much easier being able to refer to all the terrible consequences without any quantification of any of them and simply assert that they are far worse than the alternative.
A few folks like Toby Young had a stab at such quantification back in the Spring. His analysis got laughed at. He learnt his lesson.
Now the favoured approach is to claim there is no virus left and all the deaths are faked. Much easier.