March 2, 2024 - 8:00am
Political parties are Britain’s least-trusted institution, according to new research. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that only 12% of the public trust political parties, while 68% don’t.
This attitude bleeds out into our politics. The polls suggest the Conservatives are on track to be smashed at the next election, but there is little popular excitement at the prospect of Sir Keir Starmer entering Number Ten.
Who can blame them? Neither of the big parties seem to have even a convincing diagnosis of what ails Britain today. Less than a week before what might be the pre-election Budget, Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves are busy stealing one another’s tax plans.
On the face of it, the ONS’ findings suggest that there is plenty of room in British politics for one or more new parties (“populist” or otherwise) to break through. Yet evidence of a convincing challenge is thin on the ground.
Reform UK has finally managed to start posting double-digit vote shares in by-elections, but they remain a marginal force, with questionable leadership and a negligible campaigning machine. George Galloway triumphed in Rochdale on Thursday, but he’s never managed to turn any of his personal parties into a significant national force.
In truth, Labour and the Conservatives have been extremely fortunate. For all the chaos caused by David Cameron’s referendums in the last decade, they have (for now at least) undermined the would-be challengers to the status quo.
The SNP’s defeat in the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 left it adrift in government, playing for time with increasing desperation as the scandals and failures piled up.
The party is now the unpopular incumbent in the Scottish Government, and in no state to make a fresh push for breaking up the United Kingdom even if there was political room for a second referendum — and after 2014, there isn’t.
Brexit, meanwhile, has hurt this country’s nascent populists in two ways. First, it associated their big achievement — leaving the European Union — with all the problems that have befallen this country since 2016.
In more practical terms, Brexit also reset the clock on the long, hard slog to build a national party. UKIP not only built a local government base and won seats in the Welsh Assembly, it came second with 100 seats in 2015; had the referendum not taken place, it would almost certainly have had a significant breakthrough at the next election.
Reform UK has had to start from scratch, without either Nigel Farage or the clear demand (Brexit) that allowed them, over decades, to build up to where they were in 2015.
But the major parties shouldn’t get complacent. Our electoral system works in part by delaying the breakthrough of minor parties (except those with concentrated geographic appeal, such as the SNP), giving Labour and the Conservatives time to adjust and keeping most voters inside the tent.
But that depends on the big parties being able to adjust, and willing to move with shifting public opinion to keep ahead of their challengers. Neither Starmer nor Rishi Sunak have shown any sign of doing so; if their successors won’t or can’t, Britain may yet get its populist revolt.
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SubscribeVery weak assertion that “Brexit has hurt the nations populists”. Quite difficult to read on after that (unsubstantiated) statement. No obvious insights followed.
All he means is that there is no longer a major unifying cause to rally round, along with a belief in the wider population that Brexit has been disastrous.
Particularly infuriating when it was the sell out of the democratically expressed will of the people, by politicians on all sides, who actively worked to get as bad a Brexit deal as possible in the hope Brexit could be reversed that has led to us failing to take the many opportunities Brexit offered. The person most responsible for this sell out from the Labour side? Sir Kier Starmer.
Jeez you got to laugh. We ended up with a v hard Brexit and you clowns are still not happy.
Oh for sure – very hard. We are still members of the European Court.
An act of monumental self harm represents agency to people who feel they have none.
I know exactly what he meant. He is wrong. The outcome of the unifying cause has yet to be enacted so remains as valid as before Brexit. The current U.K. government is yet to “take back control”, and will be punished by the electorate as a result.
Please substantiate your “disastrous” suggestion, I.e which polling organisation and details of their polling strategy.
You may think of Brexit as having not been enacted, but that doesn’t mean all the people that voted for it think the same as you. Some will think simply leaving was enactment, and given that that is all it said on the ballot paper they’ve got a pretty good point.
If that’s the case for a large number of Brexit voters then it’s now a less viable political rallying call.
Of course not everyone thinks the same as me. I think you (and the author) seriously underestimate the proportion of Brexit voters who still feel the same way as they did on the day they voted to Leave.
The Conservatives would love this article to be accurate, but all indications are that the Leave wrath will bury them.
They’ll be buried, but it’ll primarily be because most people think they’re useless and self-serving.
All of the above …
Once you’ve removed a Scapegoat the Populist has to find another. Mobs, Progressives, Blobs…groan. So obvious and so pathetic.
So said an old Bolshevist the other day about the Soviet experiment. Just wasn’t done right.
Do you guys not grasp how silly this looks? I think majority of the public does.
Well they have been told it is disastrous 24/7 by the BBC!
Yes, and every other bit of the remain side too. But regardless of whether it’s a disaster or not, the fact that a large chunk of people believe it makes it less likely to attract voters.
The BBC are now struggling to maintain their false narrative that open-border immigration is a major benefit for the country. This is almost certainly driving many of the Leave voters away from the Conservatives – and towards a new party that will “finish the job”.
Err Farage said is was a total disaster. To my knowledge he doesn’t work for the BBC. Inconvenient that isn’t it.
As I’m sure you know that’s a misleading quote. Farage said it was a disaster because of the way Brexit has been done, not because of Brexit itself. Kind of like what Ian is arguing.
Thanks Dennis – spot on.
Good grief you guys might actually believe that twaddle. ‘The way it’s been done’…jeez you couldn’t make it up.
Since Brexit we have had bad economic impacts from the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the Truss debacle. Those three have all affected the economy more than Brexit, and their effects have been plain to see. Whether you were pro or anti Brexit, its effects have been overshadowed. It promised to be a game-changer, one way or another, and it hasn’t been. That’s all.
And from a major Conservative Blog too…shocking. But the truth hurts too doesn’t it.
The two main parties still don’t get it. The Conservatives deliberately removed the possibilities (however slight) of a change of course by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Labour are struggling to be both pro-Palestine and Antisemitic, Woke and socially conservative, at the same time.
We have ended up with Rishi Sunak trying to sell an empty sack, and Keir Starmer trying to keep a sack of fighting cats closed. Neither is a basis for addressing what ails us in the immediate future.
Many say that the next General Election will be the most important of recent times. I suspect it will actually be the one after that, or later still.
Look at France. Mainstream centre right wins in 2007. Mainstream centre left wins in 2012. Now both centre right and centre left parties are smashed. The centre has not held in Ireland either, with the three mainstream centrist parties falling from over 90% of the seats 15 years ago, to less than half today.
Some parallels in Germany too with the disaffection with the centrist ‘Traffic Light’ coalition.
Why are we calling parties that support open borders, crippling covid policies and net zero centrist?
Eventually if people find that “reasonable” parties stop listening to their concerns, and indeed implement policies to immiserate them, they will vote for “unreasonable” parties.
Good question! The SPD and the Greens are certainly not centrist, they are left-of-centre, and have been moving further left every year.
“centrist” is a psephological term, not a political one.
It simply denotes a party sufficiently close to others to consider winning voters away from their rivals to be a better electoral strategy than engaging non-voters further out.
Hence the old saw about elections being won in the centre.
In this sense, Corbynism was not “centrist” because it was was much more interested in encouraging non-voters (especially young voters) to start voting than it was in persuading, Mondeo man, or Stevanage woman, or whatever the latest avatar of the floating voter is, to switch.
Yes , i agree. It’s curious why the centre hasn’t held in many western democracies. I don’t know the answer . We like to blame politicians obviously, but maybe it us.? We all took the Pax Americana for granted and became fat , dumb and happy.
(I speak only for myself obvs)
My suspicion is that the ‘centre’ is more attractive to those of a bureaucratic mind. Those who choose to believe that everybody should follow the rules and all will be well.
But bureaucrats are managers rather than leaders. They will happily document mission statements and plans but they will not create them from scratch. And after years of ‘documentation’ the lack of ‘action’ is revealed as hollow progress.
You have a good point. Almost eight decades of peace and relative prosperity have probably made us complacent or as you put it “fat, dumb, and happy”. My mother, a child of the 1950s, was genuinely shocked when war broke out in the Balkans in the 1990s. What? War in Europe? Inconceivable! I was still in my teens when that happened, but I remember looking at her and saying something along the lines of: “Why are you so surprised? Do you really think that people change so much in a generation or two as to make war and other armed conflicts impossible?”
Boris Johnson is a demon. He did exactly what he set out to do – he destroyed the Parliamentary system. He hates you – he wants you destroyed. My guess is he was teased as a boy because he is a knee-biting backstabber, and so set out to get revenge by destroying Britain. He has succeeded.
The thing is there is not one St George in the ranks to rise up and kill the Dragon he created. The Conservatives spent the time since Thatcher guaranteeing there could never be another. Talent and morality are kicked out. Mediocrity and corruption are the only allowed risen in power.
Where is Cromwell?
‘‘“You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.””
And ideally (after a legal trial) in boat and tumbrils from the Tower, via Traitors Gate to the place of Justice for the traitors of the State, to Tyburn Dock. Every last one of the MPs and all but some Hereditary Lords, and maybe MP Bridgen would make their deserved trip
This – or 2000 years of Great Britain is ended. A lizard King sits over the final days, and I suppose that is fitting.
“Many say that the next General Election will be the most important of recent times. I suspect it will actually be the one after that, or later still.”
Shrewd comment, and I agree. (Assuming all the gung-ho idiots don’t get us into a war before then, of course.)
I would argue we are further along on the “populist” revolution than the Europeans.
Populist means 1. In favour of low rates of immigration, strictly controlled, 2. against woke sex and race nonsense (particularly in schools), 3. In favour of promoting your own nation, her culture and history and not denigrating it, 4. Against the excesses of the green movement – particularly high utility prices and JSO types blocking traffic.
When Europeans elect “populists” they find they are bound from doing these things by membership of the EU and being signatories of the ECHR. Consequently, they cannot deliver.
Not only have we left the EU but I suspect there is now popular support for resiling from the ECHR (given the right campaign).
What we need now is a new Tory leadership that can fashion a policy platform that delivers the above within a wider traditional Conservative platform. It needs to have a convincing plan for weeding out wokery/anti-nationalism/green lunacy within the institutions.
It will take a spell in opposition and also learning the lessons of Trump2 and other populist governments during that time.
But we will get there. And “populist” or post-liberal or traditionalist intellectual communities like this very comments section are all part of the work.
When in fact the Tories are finished for a decade, and may be replaced by a party that WILL enact Conservatism.
I think a replacement party is unrealistic. I also think Labour under Starmer will be a one-termer. Starmer, for all his luck with the Tories and SNP imploding, is duff. Less able than Liz Truss or Teresa May. And that’s saying something.
Are you sure Starmer is for one term only? He wants to give votes to 16 year olds. He’s also talked about voting rights for foreign nationals like EU citizens.
Then there’s the problem of ageing Tory voters. As they die they aren’t being replaced by younger ones. I think that Labour will win, and I’m not sure that they will ever be dislodged.
Starmer is much more likely to follow the path of Wilson / Callaghan than Blair / Brown. 1979 – winter of discontent, 50 years on, 2029 whole year of discontent?
If only.
I’m not convinced by your definition of ‘populist’. It seems to exclude left-wing populists like Galloway. Of course, all too often, the term is used as a simple pejorative, whatever the recipient stands for!
Your definition of populism is excellent!!
Canada is about to kick the tar out of the current ultra progressive party. The Liberal Party of Canada which has existed for a over 100 years will never recover.
I think you’d find most Centrists not got a big prob with your key 4 definitions of Populism. The issue is the degree to which. Remarkably though your 4 are silent on cost of living, what’s gone wrong with UK capitalism, growing inequality, public services and our urgent need to strengthen our military/security.
Totally agree with the article. Unfortunately it seems too late for a populist movement with the right message to make a difference at the next GE, if there was one however, it would definitely do well.
Had Cameron won the Brexit referendum in 2016, I do wonder if the right-wing backlash would have led to a faster exodus from the Tories. Obviously the electoral system has often helped the Tories, but I do wonder if the referendum going the way it did and the Tories being the (extremely imperfect) vessel that could or would implement the referendum result in some shape or form gave the party a stay of execution, at least compared to say France and Italy where the populist right have eclipsed the ‘moderates’.
Sadly with an low energy leader like Tice Reform don’t appear to be going far.
Reform can only surge with Farage as leader. Unless and until he steps in, they’ll hover around 13% – enough to hurt the wet Tories, but not enough to break through.
Conversely, I can quite understand if Farage feels he has done his bit and wants to hang back. It’s also problematic for a movement to be so dependent on one individual.
What we have to hope is the Reform politicians get more air-time, so it becomes more obvious they do not have a coherent policy platform and are crackpots and charlatans rattling around in silly echo-chambers.
I’d like to see Ben Habib running the party. He’s articulate, well informed and reasonable. I agree with a lot of Farage’s policies, but he’s too ‘Marmite’ to gain widespread support.
Reform does not need MPs to punish the Tories into rethinking future strategy, so Tice will probably achieve enough.
If there is no evidence of a party other than the Tories or Labour making a breakthrough at a General Election, what are these ‘forces’ that the Prime Minister refers to in his Friday Downing Street sermon as threatening to ‘tear us apart’?
Some people in Rochdale vote the ‘wrong way’? They couldn’t tell the difference between a Labour candidate and a man wearing a hat?
One of the established political parties has to collapse entirely before another can take its place. The author’s observation that the EU referendum deprived UKIP of its only political leverage is pertinent. Can the Gazan war be used as leverage by other parties or candidates? Can assurances and formulas of words negative that dinosaur bone of contention?
In Rochdale 60% of the electorate decided it was preferable to sleep out on the moors rather than be in any ‘tent’.
You have to laugh – an article by the Head of Conservative Home (owned by yet another Tory multi-millionaire Non-Dom tax avoider) conveniently avoiding taking any accountability for the utter shambles of last 14years nothing to do with him or them. From recollection this clown supported Mad Liz.
What he does do though is highlight the obvious – Brexit has made the Right look stupid and damaged their credibility. But shamelessly he tries to put some distance between himself and the Brexit folly presenting himself and Conservative Home mere side-line commentators. Comical.
Enough of the British public have grasped the Populists have made a total mess with slogans before good thoughtful government. The terrible events in Gaza have given them one last chance to stoke division and fear in a desperate attempt to gain electoral advantage.
How has Brexit made the Tories look stupid? The economy in Europe might actually be worse than Britain, which is saying something. Voters aren’t turning their back on Tories because of Brexit. And what populists have been discredited and why?
Well given the Author of Conservative Home said as much and Farage said it’s been a disaster, I guess I can add to it. How about the state of the UK economy now? How about the increase in taxation, highest ever outside of wartime, and cost of living crisis? How about the increase in legal migration from rest of the World at greater cost and with more family members alongside? How about the shambles in NI that led to the Windsor agreement? How about a visit to Dover to see all the additional delays? How about a chat with our Fisherman or Farmers? How about how made it more difficult for us, and esp our young, to work and travel in Europe? How about the longest waiting lists ever despite the £350m per day on the side of the Red Bus? How about all the wasted time spent on the fallacy which we could have spent solving other problems? How about all the wonderful free trade deals we’ve landed since…err is there one? I could go on of course go on, but how about it’s supporters point to any benefits that people can feel?
Europe must accept the fact that America’s nuclear umbrella is now closed. America is no longer the arsenal of Democracy. All its industry moved to China for short term profits. Woke fools run the country and it is divided into two nations which cannot split up because America is a sea of red rural areas with a smattering of blue cities. 50 miles from any city one finds MAGA countryside. The cities call the rural areas deplorables. The rural areas despise the urban elite. Europe is on its own in the next war. America is scheduled to be destroyed as per Revelation 18.
“Labour and the Conservatives have been extremely fortunate. For all the chaos caused by David Cameron’s referendums in the last decade, they have (for now at least) undermined the would-be challengers to the status quo.”
Actually, the first party to be a casualty of Cameron’s referendums was Labour itself.
By 2015, austerity was a political millstone and, but for Brexit, the Conservative Government might normally have been expected to fall to an anti-austerity Labour party at the following election.
As people seem constantly to forget, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems were fully aligned on Brexit. In each case, MPs, membership and electorate were completely aligned on leave/remain. Labour’s misfortune was to be split – with PLP and membership overwhelmingly for remain but the electorate almost evenly divided.
That made it furiously difficult for Labour to construct a position on the most salient polical issue in either 2017 and 2019. Not least because it created a division between the remain voting chattering class supporters in London – blithely fulminating over Brexity knuckle draggers outside the capital – and the 65% of Labour constituencies that voted leave.
It subsequently emerged that the Labour right (firmly on team Remain) was so desperate to be rid of its leader that at least some of them didn’t even want to win in 2017. Which explains why they weren’t interested in reconciling that gulf – hence Corbyn’s portrayal as a closet Brexiter.