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September 27, 2024 - 4:00pm
Japan’s incoming new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is a 67-year-old former banker who has served as defence minister and has headed up the agriculture department. Having narrowly defeated his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) colleague Sanae Takaishi in a vote of “law makers” (MPs) in the Japanese Diet today, he will formally take over from Fumio Kishida at the beginning of October.
Excitement here in Tokyo has been restrained, given how often Japan changes leaders without any significant consequences. However, there are reasons to believe that Ishiba, if he can assert himself in the notoriously Machiavellian world of Japanese politics, could be a genuine instigator of change, and that his elevation could have consequences for the region and the wider world.
Perhaps the key area to watch is Ishiba’s defence agenda. During his campaign, his most headline-grabbing policy proposal was for a parallel Asian Nato to be established. He is also apparently open to the idea of Japan developing its own nuclear weapons. Neither of these ideas are feasible in the near term but they do reveal a man who understands that, in a region of increasing threats and global instability, Japan needs to become more capable of mounting its own defence.
The country’s relationship with the US is crucial in this regard. Donald Trump, if he is elected in November, would no doubt approve of Japan doing more for itself. It is hard to see Trump and Ishiba replicating the easy-going “odd couple” friendship the former US president shared with Shinzo Abe, but there does seem to be a basis for a relationship there. However, the knotty issue of Nippon Steel’s proposed takeover of US Steel — which Ishiba supports and Trump opposes — would have to be overcome first.
If Kamala Harris wins, Ishiba will no doubt stress his intention of maintaining Kishida’s fulsome support for Ukraine and increased military spending overall. And as Time magazine points out, he is unlikely to seriously upset the “US-led orthodoxy” in the early part of his premiership. America’s ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, has warmly welcomed his appointment.
As for the UK, there may be areas for fruitful cooperation. A slightly more self-reliant Japan would surely be open to developing its relationship with a post-Brexit Britain and even reviving the spirit of the successful alliance between the two countries from 1902-22. Whether the more pro-EU Keir Starmer-led government is quite so keen is another matter.
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SubscribeThis kind of foreign affairs article is one of the reasons i subscribe to Unherd. You just wouldn’t read about this in the msm.
Doesn’t matter if the author is right or wrong; it simply raises awareness of events that may have global implications.
In my view a great many things well beyond the US shores depend on the outcome of the November election. It feels more consequential than most.
I’ve seen many a US election, and many an election that was billed as “crucial”. In the end, I don’t think it has made much of a difference for us outside the US.
Of course, as we are constantly reminded, past performance is no guarantee of continuation into the future…