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Millionaire exodus will hurt Labour in the long run

Easy come, easy go. Credit: Getty

October 21, 2024 - 10:00am

Jean-Baptiste Colbert, chief minister to Louis XIV, understood the art of taxation. It was about “plucking the goose to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”.

Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, also fancies herself a clever plucker. Ahead of her first budget next week, she’s been trailing various cunning plans to increase tax revenues. By targeting the wealthy, she reckons she can minimise public anger. And sure enough, there’s plenty of polling to show that squeezing the rich is popular. Then again, taxing other people is always popular. You could double the rates on every odd-numbered house in the land and the people across the street would heartily approve.

The trouble comes when the geese fly away. The richest people in the country are also the most mobile — and with Reeves bearing down on them, they’re already fleeing. According to Fraser Nelson in the Telegraph, nearly 10,000 millionaires are set to quit the UK this year, which is double last year’s total. Nelson also points out that the top 1% of earners pay 18% of all income tax receipts and the top 0.01% over 5%. Our public finances are therefore vulnerable to an exodus of millionaires and billionaires.

Faced with the possibility of full-on capital flight, the supposed solution is an exit tax. This would relieve the departing rich of at least some of their wealth. Unfortunately, it would also turn this country into the equivalent of a dodgy strip club — the sort that promises you a good time only to charge you an exorbitant (and violently non-negotiable) sum for each drink. There are two points to bear in mind here. Firstly, this is not an autobiographical detail; and secondly, it’s a non-repeatable scam. Anyone fleeced in such a manner is unlikely to return.

Some, such as Polly Toynbee in the Guardian, argue that an exit tax could raise £500 million a year, but for how long? The disincentive to new investment is obvious and has the potential to cost us much more.

The mainstream Left can moan all they like about our well-heeled, footloose elites, but this is the globalised economy that they signed up to. If cheap labour can flow back and forth across our porous borders, then how much easier is it for plutocrats to withdraw themselves and their wealth once a revenue-hungry Labour government comes calling?

During the Brexit wars, Remainers were forever lamenting the loss of UK access to the European Single Market and its “four freedoms”. The first of these is the freedom of movement of people across borders, which receives a big tick from the liberal Left. Most progressives also like freedom of movement for goods and services. What they forget, however, is the fourth freedom, which is of capital — i.e. rich people’s money.

Reeves is in a particularly poor position to complain. An ardent Remainer, she also flew out to the World Economic Forum in Davos, where she banged the drum for foreign investment in the UK economy.

Well, easy come, easy go.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
1 hour ago

Socialists have little tolerance for millionaires and would sooner be rid of them and the revenue they would collect. This government belives in levelling down based on the politics of class envy. Whatever the masses can not have, then nobody will have, a ‘policy’ of failure really and the result is state ridden mediocrity.

AC Harper
AC Harper
1 hour ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

In the Socialist fever dream of the glorious Utopia everyone is happy to live on the minimum wage. Except for Party apparatchiks whose jobs are too important to be constrained by income.

Matt M
Matt M
1 hour ago

The damage to my pocket-book is outweighed by the sheer delight of watching this Labour government collapse after just 3 months! How beastly for their supporters who thought this was the Return of the Grown Ups.
Either of the Tory leadership candidates should be able to hole the government below the waterline in pretty short order. They will limp along like the last government did for a few years – probably jettisoning 2TK along the way (especially if the rumours turn out to be true).

Brett H
Brett H
2 hours ago

Not long now, England, before you hit the bottom.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
1 hour ago

Yep, let’s go on taxing productive activity and bringing in millions of immigrants so that the suburban middle class can go on getting richer every year thanks to artificially inflated house prices, unfunded pensions and all the other perks we shower them with so they’ll vote for us.

So long as the most reliable way to get rich in Britain is to work for the government and get a mortgage the economy will continue to stagnate.

Michael Kellett
Michael Kellett
1 hour ago

Yes, it will hurt Labour in the long run but they don’t care, because like all politicians in our benighted country, they’re only able to deal with the short term. Their main objective is simply to retain power, not to look after the long term good.

Last edited 53 minutes ago by Michael Kellett
j watson
j watson
1 hour ago

Crying wolf. There won’t be an exodus. This is not a 90% tax rate c1975. The UK is also looking much more stable than alot of alternatives right now.
There was some research on this earlier in 24 by the LSE. Concluded such emigration deterred by career risk, burden of moving – it’s a proper admin hassle, family upheaval, attachment to the place one calls home. And the cultural desert some of the places like Dubai or Cayman Isles turn out to be an additional factor – nice for a holiday, but beyond that not all it’s made out to be.
Then maybe Spain? Oh yes they have a Wealth tax already.
Classic story put out by the Rich to frighten the rest of us. Hardly a surprise a story played in here on Unherd as owned by a Billionaire who may find themselves paying a bit more tax. It’s why such Billionaires buy up chunks of media – all the better to influence narratives.

Last edited 1 hour ago by j watson
Susan Grabston
Susan Grabston
1 hour ago
Reply to  j watson

Since.learning a little bit more about this world it is a great.deal more.nuanced than.you suggest. Kids in boarding school, summer in chanmel isands, winter in caymans favoured by Finance crew as an example. Of course Reeves in and of herself won’t cause an exodus but she may prove to be the last straw. A great seal of disquiet was caused by Russian sanctions (if it can happen to them, it can happen to anyone) and push factors like the perceived randomness and viciousness of London street crimeall bear on decisions. The Conservaives also did a pretty good job of soaking the millionnaire class as the IFS is the first to admit. Reeves may simply bear the consequences of.a much deeper, multi-factorial decision made over years rather than months.

j watson
j watson
57 minutes ago
Reply to  Susan Grabston

No evening out at the Convent Garden Opera on the Cayman’s SG. The millionaires don’t live where knife crime etc happens either. That clusters in the poorer areas not in Mayfair, Chelsea, or the weekend retreat in the Cotswolds.