March 10, 2025 - 10:00am

The contest to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada has produced its expected result: ex-central bank governor Mark Carney won an overwhelming first ballot victory with 85.9% of the party electorate’s vote. The Liberal grassroots have effectively signalled a desire to start afresh, rejecting ex-Trudeau minister Chrystia Freeland in favour of the political novice Carney.

The 59-year-old is set to navigate what is probably the most tense and volatile period of Canadian politics in 30 years. Vowing to scrap the unpopular Trudeau consumer carbon tax and capital gains tax hike, the former Bank of England governor has promised to chart a more pro-business course for the embattled governing party.

Carney will ascend to the post of prime minister in the following days without yet being an elected member of Parliament. However, he may be able to find a seat in the House of Commons soon by calling an early election. The new Liberal chief will want to capitalise on a major Trump-induced polling shift that has revived his party’s fortunes (even Trudeau received a big popularity boost).

Canada is, of course, in the crosshairs of the US administration’s aggressive and unpredictable trade war; and though a temporary partial tariff reprieve was granted, Canadians are expecting high-stakes economic brinkmanship to resume within days. It was against this backdrop of total uncertainty that Carney pitched himself as the experienced policy hand who could steer the country through the latest crisis — as he had during the financial meltdown of 2008. However, it should also be noted that this part of his record has come under attack from then-Conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper, who is disputing the Liberal leader’s claims of success. Another elder statesman, former UK chancellor George Osborne, defended Carney, praising his time at the Bank of England.

Carney’s other great strength, his extensive private sector experience, has also been targeted, with Right-wing sources pinning the blame on him for the relocation of the head office of Canadian asset management giant Brookfield — in which he served as chair — from Toronto to New York. Carney has so far weathered these charges, but questions persist around his corporate decisions and personal wealth. This may come back to bite him in a general election campaign as his chief rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, could use this line of attack against a man he will surely depict as an out-of-touch elite. Poilievre has seen his commanding lead threatened by Carney’s rise and the two are now neck-and-neck.

In fighting both Trump and Poilievre, Carney will confront a series of challenges not just to his nascent government but also to the endangered brand of managerial technocracy that he so perfectly embodies. As in 2015, at the start of the Trudeau era, when Canada seemed to stand athwart the populist revolution sweeping the Western world, Carney’s could see a dramatic resurgence of centre-left liberalism. Or, depending on any number of variables, it could amount to the shortest ministry in Canadian history. Anything could happen and, in keeping with the hockey metaphors he is fond of using, it now falls to Carney to go elbows up.


Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Associate Editor at American Affairs.
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