With Keir Starmer’s position in peril over the Peter Mandelson scandal, speculation is ramping up as to who might replace him. That even wildcard candidates are being considered tells us something is seriously wrong with the most senior ranks. But what are the basic conditions for suitability that a candidate must pass?

The first filter is ideological. Any potential Labour leader will almost certainly hold bog-standard liberal-Left views. Yes, the party did once turn to Tony Blair out of desperation and, 20 years later, it veered to the Left and chose Jeremy Corbyn. But this time the party will be looking for a safe pair of hands who doesn’t completely diverge from the mandate given at the election — that means neither New Labour nor Blue Labour, nor hardline socialist. That counts against Wes Streeting, given his Blairite tendencies, and it also all but rules out Shabana Mahmood, arguably the most talented Cabinet member, for her Blue Labour credentials.

However, there’s no point in dumping Starmer if the party doesn’t make a fresh start — and this provides the second condition. One might argue that mere image is of minor importance compared to matters of policy. But Starmer’s complete failure to connect with the British people is a fatal impediment. Specific events and policy failures have helped drive his approval rating down to record lows, but so has having the greyest political persona since John Major.

His replacement therefore needs to offer a complete change of energy. Being a woman would be the most obvious way to offer a contrast for a party that has never had a female leader. That’s a further point against Streeting and also Ed Miliband, who has the added disadvantage of having been Labour leader before. Nonetheless, charisma matters more than chromosomes, and it’s no wonder that many in Labour are desperate to get Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham back on board.

But that brings us to the third basic condition: a new leader would need a vaguely winnable seat. Burnham, thanks to Starmer, doesn’t have a seat at all, but just look at Rayner in Ashton-under-Lyne: according to Electoral Calculus, Reform currently has a 91% chance of taking the constituency. Other Labour stars facing extinction include Bridget Phillipson, John Healey, Pat McFadden, and Emma Reynolds. Meanwhile, Streeting, Mahmood, Lucy Powell, David Lammy and Steve Reed are safe from Reform but could lose their constituencies to the Greens or an independent instead.

Then there’s the actual challenge for a new Labour leader. For instance, how to reset economic policy after the disaster of Rachel Reeves’ chancellorship. Or how to simultaneously see off the threat from Reform UK and the Green Party. Or how to prepare for a new era of coalition politics. But before they even get to those challenges, a viable candidate needs to satisfy the three basic conditions mentioned here. One of the very few Cabinet ministers who ticks all three boxes is the Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander.

For a start, she’s mainstream Labour through and through, having been the first to resign from Corbyn’s shadow cabinet a decade ago. She comes across as a real person, and would give Labour its first female PM. Her Swindon South constituency isn’t exactly safe, but at least she’s the favourite to win it. The problem is that she is largely unknown to the wider public and would hardly have the broader support of the PLP.

The wider problems therefore remain: Labour has no perfect candidate to replace a thoroughly imperfect PM. Most of the prospective replacements will also cause unpredictable challenges in their own right. Alexander could be an antidote to the baggage that comes with the other candidates. But if she’s really the party’s most impressive option, then Labour’s problems go much deeper than just the leader.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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