Last night’s Texas Republican primary for the US Senate will leave no one happy. John Cornyn, the senior senator from the Lone Star State, faced off against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The vote was split, with Cornyn gaining 42% of the vote to Paxton’s 41% — mainly thanks to a third candidate, Wesley Hunt, who finished on 13.5%. Without a clear winner, the race will go to a run-off on 26 May. This will doubtless prove gruelling, not least for those of us who have to sit through three more months of attack ads.

Until earlier this year, Cornyn never had to worry much about his re-election chances. In 35 years as an elected official, he had never lost a race. So when he decided to run for his fifth term in office, he doubtless thought he would stroll through the primary as he always had.

That was until Paxton officially threw his hat in the ring last April. With early polling frequently putting Paxton ahead of Cornyn, the veteran senator was rattled. Suddenly, it was difficult to avoid ads touting Cornyn’s loyalty to Trump, asking viewers to thank him for almost always voting with the President. The strategy may have paid off to some extent, as although Cornyn did not win outright, he did better than many expected.

The problem for Cornyn is that, despite his voting record, he cannot outdo his rival as a Trump ultra. As Attorney General, Paxton has consistently staked out conservative positions on gun rights, abortion, DEI, ESG, and immigration. But besides that, he spearheaded the legal fight contesting the 2020 election results, subsequently filing at least 100 lawsuits against the Biden administration.

This meant that Cornyn focused his attacks on his opponent’s character, which is hardly difficult, as Paxton has an extraordinary amount of baggage. In 2015, he was accused of securities fraud, a case that has dogged him through most of his time in office. It was only settled nine years later when he agreed to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution.

In 2020, Paxton was accused of corruption over his relationship with Austin real estate investor Nate Paul. Paxton fired the whistleblowers, who then sued. This led in 2023 to a rare moment of bipartisan agreement in the Texas House, when 60 Republicans joined the Democrats to vote for his impeachment. Within a few months, however, most of them had evidently had a change of heart, as only two Republican senators voted to find him guilty.

In his attack ads, Cornyn has alerted voters to the fact that Paxton’s wealth has grown exponentially while in office. But the race is more than just an internecine GOP dogfight. Polling suggests that, unlike Cornyn, Paxton could lose the seat to James Talarico, who won last night’s Democratic primary. Just weeks ago, Republicans received a drubbing in a special election for a seat they considered safe in Fort Worth. To avoid this catastrophe, the Republican establishment poured $100 million into the race, backing Cornyn.

For now, the money seems to have helped. After the results were announced, Cornyn had harsh words for his rival: “I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centred and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years. There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country.”

It would be unwise, however, to discount Paxton’s resilience. This is a man who was elected while under indictment, who has survived multiple scandals and the wrath of his colleagues. Yet, despite all that, he is a Terminator-style figure who just keeps on coming, no matter what is thrown at him. The Democrats can only hope that he pulls it off yet again.

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Daniel Kalder is an author based in Texas. Previously, he spent ten years living in the former Soviet bloc. His latest book, Dictator Literature, is published by Oneworld. He also writes on Substack: Thus Spake Daniel Kalder.

DanielKalder

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