Progressives have lamented the need to do this as the country has grown more diverse and would much prefer to focus on the more exciting task of energising a multiracial coalition of young people whom they believe share their progressive views. One Harris ally told the Atlantic she hoped to see the Vice President challenge the idea “that politicians have to appease older white voters in order to be successful.”

A new CNN poll indicated that Harris may indeed do better with non-white voters than Biden, though it’s too early to know whether her improvements are a temporary boost or signs of a real shift. But even if they stick, it’s likely not enough for Harris to win. The same poll found Trump ahead by three points overall (though within the margin of error), which represents a significant shift from 2020 and still leaves her vulnerable in the Electoral College.

Ultimately, while the Sun Belt may look like an attractive target, pivoting from Democrats’ longstanding formula for success — which starts by going through the Blue Wall — is incredibly misguided. First, it fundamentally misunderstands the American electorate. The Democrats’ base voters are inefficiently distributed in a handful of major metro areas, often in deep-blue states. This makes it extremely difficult to build a coalition that can win a general election with just those voters. And if, as some of Harris’s allies claim, they want to rebuild Barack Obama’s highly successful coalition, then she by definition must cater to white working-class voters in Midwestern states, who represent a majority of the electorate in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

The contention that she has a stronger advantage than Biden with the “rising electorate” is also dubious when we step back from individual polls and look at things in the aggregate. Democratic pollster Adam Carlson has tracked average support by demographic group in recent presidential polling, comparing Biden’s performance versus Trump with Harris’s. Overall, Harris basically ties Biden with younger and non-white voters. Again, this positioning represents a significant decline from Biden’s 2020 win and would thus almost certainly not be enough to defeat Trump.

Part of the reason for this errant thinking on the part of Harris and her team is that they may be overestimating just how liberal young and non-white voters actually are. For example, only about a third of young Americans self-identify as politically liberal. And far from being animated by issues like student loans and Palestine, they care about a lot of the same issues as older Americans, including inflation and cost of living, and have more moderate attitudes about issues like immigration and gender. Similarly, black and Hispanic Americans have voted less Democratic over time, and many hold much more conservative views than their recent voting patterns would indicate.

While these realities don’t mean Harris shouldn’t try to gain back lost ground with young and non-white voters — or that doing so isn’t a crucial step for her to win — it’s a reminder that simply pivoting to these sexier “rising electorate” states won’t guarantee victory. Another way to think about it: improving her standing with these groups may be necessary but not sufficient.

At present, Trump has stronger leads in the Sun Belt states than he does in the Rust Belt. Democrats should therefore resist the temptation to get too cute. Harris’s most direct path to 270 electoral votes is through the party’s Blue Wall — something her predecessor understood well — and by finding a way to appeal to the older, whiter, and more working-class swing voters who will decide this election.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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