Israel’s ceasefire deal with Hamas is promising news — for the surviving people who live in Gaza, for hostages, and for Israel, which could receive a respite from warfare on various fronts while getting hostages back. That is presumably one of the reasons its leaders accepted terms they previously resisted, including an eventual full withdrawal of its military from Gaza and a stated goal of making the ceasefire permanent through execution of its three phases.
A ceasefire is less important to the United States, but still a good thing. US forces are now less likely to be dragged into a war by Israel’s actions, especially with Iran. And since the war in Gaza animated Houthi attacks on shipping, its end could stop that, and by extension the failed little US war in Yemen.
But whatever President Joe Biden says, he does not deserve credit. It’s true the ceasefire reflects his administration’s stated aim, and much labour by US diplomats. But the deal’s arrival only at the end of Biden’s term — and only when his successor endorsed it — shows how feckless his policy on Gaza was, even how counterproductive it was to peace.
President-elect Donald Trump is of course taking credit for the deal, and he even may deserve some of it. It’s true that his policy on a ceasefire appears to be like Biden’s long failed approach — tell Israel to do a deal to end the fighting, but attach no consequences for not doing so. But the same demand Biden made, coming from Trump, apparently resonated differently with Benjamin Netanyahu.
Maybe the prospect of having sought Trump’s support for years encouraged Netanyahu to get on his good side. It’s also possible that Netanyahu was looking for ways to sell a deal to his supporters and saw Trump’s pressure as a useful way to do so. And it’s additionally plausible that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff made promises — perhaps on some help against Iran or support for West Bank annexation — that sweetened the deal.
In some ways, though, the debate about credit for the ceasefire is a distraction from a more consequential discussion of blame for its late arrival. The agreed deal appears to be quite similar to the three-phased approach the Biden administration put on the table in May. And Hamas, despite the White House’s stubborn attempts to blame it for past collapse of peace talks, basically accepted that deal, while Israel rejected it. So arguably much of the fighting and deaths in Gaza have been futile: not a way to drive a bargain and shape the peace, but a useless and thus more deeply tragic delay.
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SubscribeThe notion that putting more pressure on Israel would have yielded a cease-fire agreement earlier is belied by the admission by Blinken himself that, “whenever there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel and the perception that pressure was growing on Israel, we’ve seen it: Hamas has pulled back from agreeing to a cease-fire and the release of hostages”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/magazine/antony-blinken-interview.html
This dynamic was already obvious in real time to anyone that cared to watch.
The truth is that a cease-fire would have been reached earlier if enough pressure had been exerted on Hamas, by demonstrating to their leadership that their situation in Gaza is hopeless and they can only survive by releasing the hostages and leaving the strip. However, by demanding provision of huge amounts of aid, which were hijacked by Hamas and used as a tool to reestablish their control on the Gaza population, the international community – and first and foremost the US – convinced Hamas that their survival is not at stake and that they can hold out with the deal.
The second truth is that anyone associating a cease fire agreement that leaves Hamas in charge of Gaza with satisfying a “desire for peace”, has no business writing opinion columns on the Middle East.
If the rumoured terms are correct, this is a VERY BAD DEAL for Israel and the world.
1) It releases thousands of Hamas murderers
2) Leaves Hamas hope of regrouping
3) Gives no guarantee of getting all the remaining hostages alive
4) Allows Hamas a net gain for its 7 Oct 2023 atrocity (they don’t care about Gazans)
5) Makes Israel’s war indecisive
6) Makes a mockery of the 850 or so Israeli soldiers who gave their lives for what should have been a decisive “never again” victory, while minimising collateral Gazan casualties to an unprecedented degree for urban warfare.
7) Not just the 850 Soldiers lives squandered, but the original 1,200 citizens and murdered hostages and Gazans killed and displaced.
8) This is the kind of “deal” that was repeated several times since 2005, and led to ever more war and finally 7 Oct 2023 and this present war.
In Arabic, “Salam” has the root meaning of “submission”. Naively, “salam” is translated as “peace”, but you do not understand the Arabs of the Middle-East, if you do not understand that their idea of “Peace” is when one side submits. The Middle East only ever has peace when one side of a conflict proves itself decisively stronger than its rivals.
If Trump wants to take “credit” he is being as misled by his [State Department?] advisors as he was by Pfizer over the mRNA Covid “vaccine”. Use it as an opportunity to expose the bogus advisors. Reject the “deal”.
The first biggest mistake the West, including Trump, has made is the idea that it can make a deal with anyone.
They tried to make a deal with Hitler’s Germany. Some people here remember the result.
They tried to make a deal with Russia after Cold War. We see the result.
They tried to make a deal with Hamas now. It’s not a problem to forecast the result.
The second biggest mistake of the West is to think that the problem is in the leaders of such opponents, the people are always innocent. Almost all educated people in the West are sure of this. Alas, the people are not innocent, and their leaders are the expression of the people’s desires, no matter how disgusting they may be. That is why the Russian army likes meat assaults so much, and the death of Palestinian children does not bother the Palestinians.
I want to make a point to all the non-Israelis that tell us with such confidence “this is a terrible deal, don’t do that”, or who are convinced that Israelis are just caving in to US pressure:
Please don’t tell Israelis what to do or not to do. You don’t understand Israeli society. Solidarity is its strength – it is what made thousands of reservists put on their uniform on October 7 in the morning, before having even been called up, and go South to fight the Hamas invasion, and North to prevent a Hezbollah invasion. It is what made hundreds of thousands enlist for reserve duty and enter the utterly booby-trapped Gaza strip to battle the entrenched Hamas army.
But this solidarity can also be a weakness: we won’t abandon Israeli hostages – they are our people, and their lives is not “a price” you have to weigh whether to pay or not. So there is tremendous pressure from inside Israel – from all parts of society – to make everything possible to free the hostages.
The bottom line is, you can’t have the strength of the solidarity without its weakness. This is what Hamas has been exploiting since October 7. The question you should ask yourself – before you give the Israelis any advice – is: in what type of society would you rather live?
Someone named Ben Friedman is irritated that Biden administration allowed Israel to conduct the war unlike the hoary heads of the EU and the universities and demonstrations who demand cease all aid to Israel for it to pursue “genocide.” B. Sanders, a senator from an all white state was one of the most vociferous of those who want aid to Israel to stop. So today, Hamas is in power, their gun toting terrorist are playing with their guns for celebration of victory and and Khalil al Haya form Quttr is crowing how this is only the beginning of Israel’s demise. So Mr Friedman, never give up hope as it looks like things are swinging your way. I tried to answer Mr. Kaye’s response….good , especially your final line.
I’m not going to hold my breath regarding this ceasefire, but I will say that it seems like we are being given a shiny object to obsess over in the next few days.
Ultimately, Israel citizens has an influence, and we do not get a lot of information about Israel and its internal conflicts. That will ultimately determine the outcome one way or another. But the question is why now? There is some background information missing for now.
Secondly, the idea that Trump appears to have solved a problem and may get Nobel prize also suggests that America is merely performing to show the world that they can make Israel stop at any time. It’s a display of power, but I believe it’s misleading because China and Russia (the real threat to US economically after all dust settles) already know America’s actual capabilities and limitations on this issue. This isn’t going to confuse them—only Americans are confusing themselves within their own citizens for control and submission.
The third and more important point is that Trump has invested far more money in the Middle East than in Israel. Trump’s weakness is his obsession with leaving his name everywhere in the world—that’s his game. It’s not just about America’s name but his own personal brand being recognized globally. Given his significant investments in the Middle East, I believe that could push him to challenge Israel now but again, I am not holding my breath! Because right now today, still he is only President-elect.
Of course, challenging Israel within the U.S. is a complex issue. It always seems to create turmoil within America. So, I’m waiting to see Trump’s real face after inauguration, meaning after he officially takes power. Once he’s back in office, he’s going to reveal his true stance.
But, if I were Israel, I’d be very careful. Considering the Russians and Turkey moves in destabilizing Syria (despite what the media says), and I never trust that situation. If one destabilizes the regions around you, you end up creating a country that functions like a military base with a daycare—where everyone’s families live within the conflict zone. This can not be good for any country including Israel! One cannot eat an apple while everybody around them is hungry! That is wishful thinking! It is a psychological damage to live in conflict zones for extended time! When all the regions around you become failed states or about to, it is either Balkans or similar to USSR fall (either use of force and splits or avoid of force to grant nation states respectfully).
Something is missing in all of this. But I think that after January 20th, after being distracted by shiny new objects, temporarily relieved of tension, and then—boom—we’ll get hit in the gut. So no, I’m not holding my breath.
It is giving me the same feeling as when Syria folded like 10 days and Assad was flown to Moscow without any spill of blood!
So thinking more to emerge in the few weeks!
I see performance!
UnHerd’s ability to find completely unbiased authors is nothing short of amazing:
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Twitter
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Post, Ben Friedman, @BH_Friedman
Jan 14
I’m all for excoriating Biden’s record on Gaza, but so far, it looks like Trump did exactly what Biden did: demand a ceasefire deal but refuse to impose consequences on Israel if Bibi didn’t go along.
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Conversation, Ryan Grim, @ryangrim
If you took the most vulgar, simplistic analysis from the very beginning — that Netanyahu was intent on genocide and would pursue it until he was forced to stop by the U.S. — you’d have been precisely correct.
No replies to comments allowed?
Yes, it’s interesting that Biden could also be accused of facilitating two genocides in that region – or failing to prevent them as is argued here.
He will get the credit whether he deserves it or not. This must be the last round in the conflict and the US must take advantage of it to take back control of its Middle East policy from Israel.