One of the lesser-discussed elements of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the large number of countries that have refused to take a side. While it may be comforting to imagine here in the West that the world is unified in its support for Ukraine, the truth is more complicated.
For one, as Glenn Greenwald noted in a recent debate with Antonio Garcia-Martinez, nine out of the ten most populous countries in the world (including Russia) have either equivocated over, or supported the invasion. And earlier this year, 67 UN countries abstained on the motion to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Officially, there are 120 nations (home to 55% of the world’s population) that are still formally part of the Non-Aligned Movement — an organisation founded at the inception of the Cold War in opposition to both the ‘first world’ of the US-led NATO security alliance and the ‘second world’, or the USSR’s Warsaw Pact.
The NAM was founded in Yugoslavia in response to the US-Russian proxy war in Korea. The organisation saw itself as opposing all forms of imperialism, advocating instead for self-determination and an end to global inequality. Though it failed on a number of key aims, the body was able to pressure both West and East on issues such as nuclear non-proliferation.
But post-1991, the idea that states could remain ‘unaligned’ diminished. The US was so dominant that most were expected to fall in line — any country that risked challenging America’s hegemony could easily be frozen out of the world order. By the time the 2016 NAM conference came around, only eight heads of state showed up.
But even as the US pressures countries to pick a side in the Russia-Ukraine war, only one officially non-aligned state (Singapore) has actually sanctioned Russia, while other major NAM members and observer states (South Africa, Brazil, China) tread lightly. Many of those who abstained on the UN vote backed a South African-penned resolution which made no mention of Russia’s role in the conflict. Outside Europe and North America, Putin is not faring so badly in the information war.
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SubscribeIs Germany now in the Non-aligned camp?
Essentially, I think, the elites of China, India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. are not at all convinced that the Ukrainians, backed by the West, will win. They are hedging their bets so they can end up backing the winners. Moral issues – the right of small states not to be attacked by large ones – do not come into it.
I suspect that if we examine the record of Europe’s small states during the 1929-40 phony war, we will see the same thing. Spain, for example, was scrupulously neutral, even though Franco owed Hitler and Mussolini for helping him win the 1936-9 civil war.