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November 27, 2024 - 7:00am
The ceasefire announced between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon enters into force today. It does, however, contain several flaws.
The key problem is enforcement. The framework for this ceasefire is United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the previous Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006. The Resolution said there would be a 12-mile zone between the “Blue Line” (Israel-Lebanon border) and the Litani River that was “free of any armed personnel, assets, and weapons other than” those of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
Resolution 1701 also called for the “full implementation of the […] Taif Accords”, which ended the Lebanese Civil War in 1989 and “require[d] the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon”. This was clearly a reference to Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The premise of Resolution 1701 was ludicrous: there is no LAF to fill a vacuum left by Hezbollah. The LAF is an agglomeration of hostile sectarian militias, partly created and thoroughly infiltrated by the IRGC. As for UNIFIL, it was at best indifferent as Hezbollah built up its bases and forces along the Israeli border over the last 18 years.
The current ceasefire deal has set a 60-day timetable for Israel’s troops to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon. After that period, the vacated territory is supposed to be patrolled by UNIFIL and the LAF, with Hezbollah pulling back north of the Litani, and all non-official groups to be disarmed and dismantled in due course.
This time, the only new aspect is the introduction of an international “committee”, including the United States and France, to monitor implementation. Israel has protested against French involvement because of the country’s longstanding relationship with Lebanon. But the larger problem is that there is no force on the ground able and actually willing to compel Hezbollah’s compliance so, committee or not, this is a replica of the situation created by Resolution 1701.
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Subscribe“The current ceasefire deal has set a 60-day timetable for Israel’s troops to fully withdraw from southern Lebanon. After that period, the vacated territory is supposed to be patrolled by UNIFIL and the LAF, with Hezbollah pulling back north of the Litani, and all non-official groups to be disarmed and dismantled in due course.”
So doing the same thing again, and expecting a different outcome. Yes, this time it will work. Honest.
While I think you’re absolutely spot on. The IDF, which is very much a citizen army, has been hard used over the last year. Even the best need a break for the girdling of loins and catching a breath. Armies, in combat, operate tired, it’s the nature of the beast. That creates mistakes, people die. It’s a balance, but increasing casualties now, many stupid or blue on blue, against the inevitable casualties when fighting resumes. It’s a shit choice, and I’m glad I was never in a position that it was up to me.
I’m sure Israel knows exactly what this means and is prepared for the inevitable outcome.
Looking at the ceasefire as it relates to the area north of the Litani River it does put more Lebanese Christians at risk in the rest of Lebanon. Hizbolah conduct a holy war against all and any who don’t agree with their specific route to heaven.
Given that the civil war ended several decades ago and they have never staged a coup to establish an Iranian style state despite the fact that they easily could, I don’t think that’s true. I don’t like them, what they did in Syria was reprehensible, but they aren’t going to attack the other Lebanese.
“ Biden’s public support for Israel’s right to self-defence if and when Hezbollah violates the deal.”
Biden’s support? Hardly a trustworthy supporter! What did USA and UK do when Russia seized Crimea? Ignored their promises. What have we been trying to do in Gaza? Save Hamas.
This administration is a symbol of failure and betrayal, and if we are talking about the West as a whole, it has already capitulated to the “religion of peace”.
So is this the third or the fourth time that Israel has been kicked out of Lebanon? I’ve lost count.
Why do you ask ?
“Kicked out of Lebanon” presupposes that Israel ever wanted to stay in Lebanon, rather than preventing Lebanon from attacking Israel. That supposition is laughably false.
The truth is that for many years, the border between Israel and Lebanon was called “the good fence”, and there was a traffic of Lebanese visiting Israel. The saying then was that Lebanon was too weak to be the first Arab country to declare peace with Israel, but that it would be the second. However the takeover of South Lebanon by the PLO, and subsequently by Iran via Hezbollah, put an end to that dream.
The cease-fire negotiated under the aegis of Biden ans Macron does, unfortunately, leaves Hezbollah in place as a nefarious actor in Lebanon. Still, the prospect of a future peace between the countries is a bit less remote than it was just 2 months ago.