It’s hard to see a way out for France. The habits of state dependency and hatred of the market are too deeply ingrained. Germany, where there is at least a constituency for reform, will eventually recover from the stupidities of the Merkel regime. In the end Poland and the non-euro states will dominate.
Hasn’t Poland been in receipt of vast EU subsidies for a long time though, as well as remittances from thousands of workers they’ve sent abroad? It would almost be harder not to grow the economy with that amount of money flowing in. How well will their economy fare once all that stops is the question
We Irish contributed to that flow of money in no small way.. we paid very generous children’s allowances to Polish men and women working in Ireland even though their children never accompanied their parents but instead stayed in Poland where granny lookafter them.. I didn’t resent that by the way but clearly Polish children living in Poland were hardly an asset or an investment into Ireland’s future. But Ireland is a rich country.. we could afford it and their young adults did contribute hugely to Ireland’s economic growth after the ECB screwed us into the floor in 2008! So good luck to the Poles I say.
Ireland is not a rich country. It is a country through which a lot of money flows, from which the Irish get to skim off the top. There are very few successful Irish companies, let alone industries.
This success of Poland’s is surely partly attributable to starting from a very low post-Soviet base, with a youngish population, and inward immigration from other, less dynamic Eastern European states.
But credit where credit’s due; they could have screwed it all up and have instead proved themselves to be admirable grafters and entrepreneurs without the ‘benefit habit’ of Western Europe.
All the high growth Eastern European nations like Poland and Hungary which have been net beneficiaries of EU subsidies for decades will become net contributors if they are outdoing the established economies. Ireland is already now a net contributor. It is even possible that they will be forced to shell out soon to for example Italy soon. That would be absolutely hilarious – I would like to see how they react when that happens. As Faust knows, deals with the devil come with a pricetag.
Dumetrius
1 month ago
Why should Sweden and Denmark carry the can ? Have they always been contributors ?
Ireland, Poland, there’s less argument as they must have received their due of support before. Particularly Poland.
Edward McPhee
1 month ago
I very much doubt that, even should France and/or Germany wish to reduce bureaucracy, that Brussels will enable that to do done easily. It’s just not the EU way.
Liam O'Mahony
1 month ago
Stein’s Law is genius isn’t it? ..eh, no. I think he nicked it from Newton, don’t you?
Richard Calhoun
1 month ago
” The question facing Europe is not whether reforms will come but when, as the current trajectory cannot go on forever. ”
I beg to differ, you are assuming they will reform before a ‘crash’ … with coalition Govts that is highly unlikely.
Edward De Beukelaer
1 month ago
a country tends to do well if people are free to enterprise and free to succeed or fail, but they need to guarantee that they can benefit form a justice that will uphold the laww that will make enterprise possible and treats all in the country as equals…. hence, all corruption causes poverty for many (and money for a few). question: how free are we really in europe to enterprise? and how just is justice….? for all …?
Rachel Taylor
1 month ago
Yes, but the question is: what happens when a population that is dependent on welfare runs out of money – including all the State employees administering the welfare? It will not be peaceful.
Jake Raven
1 month ago
Climate change lunacy and anti-capitalist socialist policies is what’s bringing down governments. When governments decide a direction of travel and force business and consumers to adhere, through regulation, it stifles competition and innovation.
Repeal climate change and ESG legislation, reduce the size of the state, and stand back. Growth will flourish.
A Great Deal of Ruin in a Nation. Adam Smith.
.
It’s hard to see a way out for France. The habits of state dependency and hatred of the market are too deeply ingrained. Germany, where there is at least a constituency for reform, will eventually recover from the stupidities of the Merkel regime. In the end Poland and the non-euro states will dominate.
Hasn’t Poland been in receipt of vast EU subsidies for a long time though, as well as remittances from thousands of workers they’ve sent abroad? It would almost be harder not to grow the economy with that amount of money flowing in. How well will their economy fare once all that stops is the question
We Irish contributed to that flow of money in no small way.. we paid very generous children’s allowances to Polish men and women working in Ireland even though their children never accompanied their parents but instead stayed in Poland where granny lookafter them.. I didn’t resent that by the way but clearly Polish children living in Poland were hardly an asset or an investment into Ireland’s future. But Ireland is a rich country.. we could afford it and their young adults did contribute hugely to Ireland’s economic growth after the ECB screwed us into the floor in 2008! So good luck to the Poles I say.
Ireland is not a rich country. It is a country through which a lot of money flows, from which the Irish get to skim off the top. There are very few successful Irish companies, let alone industries.
Ireland is a tax haven, and until very recently was a beneficiary of EU largesse themselves.
This success of Poland’s is surely partly attributable to starting from a very low post-Soviet base, with a youngish population, and inward immigration from other, less dynamic Eastern European states.
But credit where credit’s due; they could have screwed it all up and have instead proved themselves to be admirable grafters and entrepreneurs without the ‘benefit habit’ of Western Europe.
Here’s another article on France that agrees with your take. A lot of details and I can’t verify them but the trend is clear
https://mishtalk.com/economics/expect-a-financial-crisis-in-europe-with-france-at-the-epicenter/
You’re giving the term “simplistic” a bad name!
All the high growth Eastern European nations like Poland and Hungary which have been net beneficiaries of EU subsidies for decades will become net contributors if they are outdoing the established economies. Ireland is already now a net contributor. It is even possible that they will be forced to shell out soon to for example Italy soon. That would be absolutely hilarious – I would like to see how they react when that happens. As Faust knows, deals with the devil come with a pricetag.
Why should Sweden and Denmark carry the can ? Have they always been contributors ?
Ireland, Poland, there’s less argument as they must have received their due of support before. Particularly Poland.
I very much doubt that, even should France and/or Germany wish to reduce bureaucracy, that Brussels will enable that to do done easily. It’s just not the EU way.
Stein’s Law is genius isn’t it? ..eh, no. I think he nicked it from Newton, don’t you?
” The question facing Europe is not whether reforms will come but when, as the current trajectory cannot go on forever. ”
I beg to differ, you are assuming they will reform before a ‘crash’ … with coalition Govts that is highly unlikely.
a country tends to do well if people are free to enterprise and free to succeed or fail, but they need to guarantee that they can benefit form a justice that will uphold the laww that will make enterprise possible and treats all in the country as equals…. hence, all corruption causes poverty for many (and money for a few). question: how free are we really in europe to enterprise? and how just is justice….? for all …?
Yes, but the question is: what happens when a population that is dependent on welfare runs out of money – including all the State employees administering the welfare? It will not be peaceful.
Climate change lunacy and anti-capitalist socialist policies is what’s bringing down governments. When governments decide a direction of travel and force business and consumers to adhere, through regulation, it stifles competition and innovation.
Repeal climate change and ESG legislation, reduce the size of the state, and stand back. Growth will flourish.