An excellent summary of our current situation, imo. I don’t know why Unherd doesn’t give Mr. Pilkington the opportunity to write a full-length article. I’d rather read about the economy (any suggestions for a way out of our current mess, Mr. Pilkington?) than how yoga became feminized.
Agreed. As a long-time male yogi myself that article and its tee-hee tone was particularly irritating. Yoga is a very hetero zone, unlike gyms bursting with gay men (here in Miami anyway) whose over-developed musculature means they can barely walk straight. Sorry to be off topic but thanks for the excuse!
Agreed. As a long-time male yogi myself that article and its tee-hee tone was particularly irritating. Yoga is a very hetero zone, unlike gyms bursting with gay men (here in Miami anyway) whose over-developed musculature means they can barely walk straight. Sorry to be off topic but thanks for the excuse!
J Bryant
1 year ago
An excellent summary of our current situation, imo. I don’t know why Unherd doesn’t give Mr. Pilkington the opportunity to write a full-length article. I’d rather read about the economy (any suggestions for a way out of our current mess, Mr. Pilkington?) than how yoga became feminized.
Jim R
1 year ago
Let’s not forget the part where raising interest rates instantly devalues treasury bonds and obliterates shareholder equity. Banks park money in “safe” treasury bonds that are issued at market interest rates – but when the central bank raises rates, the existing bonds lose value. Silicon Valley Bank was holding $91 billion worth of treasuries before rates went up – they were quickly devalued to $76 billion and that wiped out all their equity and started the run on deposits. These banks didn’t blow themselves up – they are being brought down by rate hikes, made necessary by inflation, caused by out of control government borrowing and money printing. If they made mistakes, it was perhaps listening to the central bankers and politicians and media who smugly denied inflation could be caused by money printing, then denied that inflation was happening.
Inflation is always caused by an increase in the money supply. The supply chain shortage merely accelerated the trend that was already put in motion by Covid-induced biblical money printing.
Inflation is always caused by an increase in the money supply. The supply chain shortage merely accelerated the trend that was already put in motion by Covid-induced biblical money printing.
Both the banks and the executives were too young in those cases. None of those banks were around 40 years ago, the last time we had serious inflation, so they have no institutional memory of how to handle it.
Bank deposits are short term liabilities, subject to withdrawal at any time. Long term treasury bonds are, well, long term assets. It was the mismatch in maturity that brought those banks down, not the Fed rate hikes. It was incredibly irresponsible for those banks to invest the way they did. Well managed banks don’t invest billions in fast-money deposits in 30 year MBS or Treasury bonds at rock bottom interest rates. Anyone at all familiar with bond math understands this. The bank’s management certainly did.
Both the banks and the executives were too young in those cases. None of those banks were around 40 years ago, the last time we had serious inflation, so they have no institutional memory of how to handle it.
Bank deposits are short term liabilities, subject to withdrawal at any time. Long term treasury bonds are, well, long term assets. It was the mismatch in maturity that brought those banks down, not the Fed rate hikes. It was incredibly irresponsible for those banks to invest the way they did. Well managed banks don’t invest billions in fast-money deposits in 30 year MBS or Treasury bonds at rock bottom interest rates. Anyone at all familiar with bond math understands this. The bank’s management certainly did.
Last edited 1 year ago by Donald Lipkin
Jim R
1 year ago
Let’s not forget the part where raising interest rates instantly devalues treasury bonds and obliterates shareholder equity. Banks park money in “safe” treasury bonds that are issued at market interest rates – but when the central bank raises rates, the existing bonds lose value. Silicon Valley Bank was holding $91 billion worth of treasuries before rates went up – they were quickly devalued to $76 billion and that wiped out all their equity and started the run on deposits. These banks didn’t blow themselves up – they are being brought down by rate hikes, made necessary by inflation, caused by out of control government borrowing and money printing. If they made mistakes, it was perhaps listening to the central bankers and politicians and media who smugly denied inflation could be caused by money printing, then denied that inflation was happening.
Steven Campbell
1 year ago
I’m sure that our valiant crew at the Fed is readying the printing machine and quantitative easing gizmo to flood the economy with money to stop the mess. The housing market will collapse making for a windfall in the affordable housing crowd. And, as the currency becomes worth less and less we can take care of the reparations whine with a printing of $ Trillion notes to be distributed according to color, gender, sex, species or whatever. What a wonderful world.
My worry is they are casting about for the next war to get rolling too, as that is one of their main go-to’s.
Steven Campbell
1 year ago
I’m sure that our valiant crew at the Fed is readying the printing machine and quantitative easing gizmo to flood the economy with money to stop the mess. The housing market will collapse making for a windfall in the affordable housing crowd. And, as the currency becomes worth less and less we can take care of the reparations whine with a printing of $ Trillion notes to be distributed according to color, gender, sex, species or whatever. What a wonderful world.
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago
I predict an as yet ignored cause/effect trigger to the crisis. The collapse of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway empire due to their massive over exposure to the non-life reinsurance sector, coupled with the sectors stone age inability to embrace electronic trading, securitisation and hedging derivatives, and being run by monopoly brokers with very low levels of qualification, sophistication and financial training. The US , Bermudan and London markets in this industry are in a denial that makes pre Lehman 2008 look positive genius! … watch this space…
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago
I predict an as yet ignored cause/effect trigger to the crisis. The collapse of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway empire due to their massive over exposure to the non-life reinsurance sector, coupled with the sectors stone age inability to embrace electronic trading, securitisation and hedging derivatives, and being run by monopoly brokers with very low levels of qualification, sophistication and financial training. The US , Bermudan and London markets in this industry are in a denial that makes pre Lehman 2008 look positive genius! … watch this space…
Prashant Kotak
1 year ago
The trigger to look for is a sudden acceleration in unemployment rising while at the same time the huge numbers of vacancies in western economies start to rapidly decline. Also a tailing off of rising wages across the board.
Chat GPT 5 can do 80% of Western Jobs according to some highly credentialed guy I never heard of before, but he sounded right.
All is needed is the interface between the customer and the business that Chat fills. Just that – spoken, written, Doctor, Lawyer, newsman, insurance seller, really – everything, because Chat can do your job better than you can.
I think there is your surge in unemployment lurking. I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…..trying to figure how to tie a butcher knife on the end of a stick for defense…. it will get rough….
“…I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…”
At your local variety store I assume. Better get some fork handles while you are there, just in case. And don’t forget the barbecue spice-mix with that – the flavour of the gold doesn’t come through without that.
The jobs that will survive,maybe their scarceness and competition for them will raise the status of them when top category people are going for them. Maybe we’ll get a slew of books or even movies about how I was an investment banker then a bot took my job so I became a janitor and now I run a company supplying janitors,and they’ve all got degrees.
The jobs that will survive,maybe their scarceness and competition for them will raise the status of them when top category people are going for them. Maybe we’ll get a slew of books or even movies about how I was an investment banker then a bot took my job so I became a janitor and now I run a company supplying janitors,and they’ve all got degrees.
“…I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…”
At your local variety store I assume. Better get some fork handles while you are there, just in case. And don’t forget the barbecue spice-mix with that – the flavour of the gold doesn’t come through without that.
Chat GPT 5 can do 80% of Western Jobs according to some highly credentialed guy I never heard of before, but he sounded right.
All is needed is the interface between the customer and the business that Chat fills. Just that – spoken, written, Doctor, Lawyer, newsman, insurance seller, really – everything, because Chat can do your job better than you can.
I think there is your surge in unemployment lurking. I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…..trying to figure how to tie a butcher knife on the end of a stick for defense…. it will get rough….
Prashant Kotak
1 year ago
The trigger to look for is a sudden acceleration in unemployment rising while at the same time the huge numbers of vacancies in western economies start to rapidly decline. Also a tailing off of rising wages across the board.
An excellent summary of our current situation, imo. I don’t know why Unherd doesn’t give Mr. Pilkington the opportunity to write a full-length article. I’d rather read about the economy (any suggestions for a way out of our current mess, Mr. Pilkington?) than how yoga became feminized.
Agreed. As a long-time male yogi myself that article and its tee-hee tone was particularly irritating. Yoga is a very hetero zone, unlike gyms bursting with gay men (here in Miami anyway) whose over-developed musculature means they can barely walk straight. Sorry to be off topic but thanks for the excuse!
Agreed. As a long-time male yogi myself that article and its tee-hee tone was particularly irritating. Yoga is a very hetero zone, unlike gyms bursting with gay men (here in Miami anyway) whose over-developed musculature means they can barely walk straight. Sorry to be off topic but thanks for the excuse!
An excellent summary of our current situation, imo. I don’t know why Unherd doesn’t give Mr. Pilkington the opportunity to write a full-length article. I’d rather read about the economy (any suggestions for a way out of our current mess, Mr. Pilkington?) than how yoga became feminized.
Let’s not forget the part where raising interest rates instantly devalues treasury bonds and obliterates shareholder equity. Banks park money in “safe” treasury bonds that are issued at market interest rates – but when the central bank raises rates, the existing bonds lose value. Silicon Valley Bank was holding $91 billion worth of treasuries before rates went up – they were quickly devalued to $76 billion and that wiped out all their equity and started the run on deposits. These banks didn’t blow themselves up – they are being brought down by rate hikes, made necessary by inflation, caused by out of control government borrowing and money printing. If they made mistakes, it was perhaps listening to the central bankers and politicians and media who smugly denied inflation could be caused by money printing, then denied that inflation was happening.
I thought inflation was caused by COVID-induced supply chain shortages?
Inflation is always caused by an increase in the money supply. The supply chain shortage merely accelerated the trend that was already put in motion by Covid-induced biblical money printing.
Inflation is always caused by an increase in the money supply. The supply chain shortage merely accelerated the trend that was already put in motion by Covid-induced biblical money printing.
Both the banks and the executives were too young in those cases. None of those banks were around 40 years ago, the last time we had serious inflation, so they have no institutional memory of how to handle it.
Bank deposits are short term liabilities, subject to withdrawal at any time. Long term treasury bonds are, well, long term assets. It was the mismatch in maturity that brought those banks down, not the Fed rate hikes. It was incredibly irresponsible for those banks to invest the way they did. Well managed banks don’t invest billions in fast-money deposits in 30 year MBS or Treasury bonds at rock bottom interest rates. Anyone at all familiar with bond math understands this. The bank’s management certainly did.
I thought inflation was caused by COVID-induced supply chain shortages?
Both the banks and the executives were too young in those cases. None of those banks were around 40 years ago, the last time we had serious inflation, so they have no institutional memory of how to handle it.
Bank deposits are short term liabilities, subject to withdrawal at any time. Long term treasury bonds are, well, long term assets. It was the mismatch in maturity that brought those banks down, not the Fed rate hikes. It was incredibly irresponsible for those banks to invest the way they did. Well managed banks don’t invest billions in fast-money deposits in 30 year MBS or Treasury bonds at rock bottom interest rates. Anyone at all familiar with bond math understands this. The bank’s management certainly did.
Let’s not forget the part where raising interest rates instantly devalues treasury bonds and obliterates shareholder equity. Banks park money in “safe” treasury bonds that are issued at market interest rates – but when the central bank raises rates, the existing bonds lose value. Silicon Valley Bank was holding $91 billion worth of treasuries before rates went up – they were quickly devalued to $76 billion and that wiped out all their equity and started the run on deposits. These banks didn’t blow themselves up – they are being brought down by rate hikes, made necessary by inflation, caused by out of control government borrowing and money printing. If they made mistakes, it was perhaps listening to the central bankers and politicians and media who smugly denied inflation could be caused by money printing, then denied that inflation was happening.
I’m sure that our valiant crew at the Fed is readying the printing machine and quantitative easing gizmo to flood the economy with money to stop the mess. The housing market will collapse making for a windfall in the affordable housing crowd. And, as the currency becomes worth less and less we can take care of the reparations whine with a printing of $ Trillion notes to be distributed according to color, gender, sex, species or whatever. What a wonderful world.
My worry is they are casting about for the next war to get rolling too, as that is one of their main go-to’s.
My worry is they are casting about for the next war to get rolling too, as that is one of their main go-to’s.
I’m sure that our valiant crew at the Fed is readying the printing machine and quantitative easing gizmo to flood the economy with money to stop the mess. The housing market will collapse making for a windfall in the affordable housing crowd. And, as the currency becomes worth less and less we can take care of the reparations whine with a printing of $ Trillion notes to be distributed according to color, gender, sex, species or whatever. What a wonderful world.
I predict an as yet ignored cause/effect trigger to the crisis. The collapse of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway empire due to their massive over exposure to the non-life reinsurance sector, coupled with the sectors stone age inability to embrace electronic trading, securitisation and hedging derivatives, and being run by monopoly brokers with very low levels of qualification, sophistication and financial training. The US , Bermudan and London markets in this industry are in a denial that makes pre Lehman 2008 look positive genius! … watch this space…
I predict an as yet ignored cause/effect trigger to the crisis. The collapse of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway empire due to their massive over exposure to the non-life reinsurance sector, coupled with the sectors stone age inability to embrace electronic trading, securitisation and hedging derivatives, and being run by monopoly brokers with very low levels of qualification, sophistication and financial training. The US , Bermudan and London markets in this industry are in a denial that makes pre Lehman 2008 look positive genius! … watch this space…
The trigger to look for is a sudden acceleration in unemployment rising while at the same time the huge numbers of vacancies in western economies start to rapidly decline. Also a tailing off of rising wages across the board.
Chat GPT 5 can do 80% of Western Jobs according to some highly credentialed guy I never heard of before, but he sounded right.
All is needed is the interface between the customer and the business that Chat fills. Just that – spoken, written, Doctor, Lawyer, newsman, insurance seller, really – everything, because Chat can do your job better than you can.
I think there is your surge in unemployment lurking. I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…..trying to figure how to tie a butcher knife on the end of a stick for defense…. it will get rough….
“…I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…”
At your local variety store I assume. Better get some fork handles while you are there, just in case. And don’t forget the barbecue spice-mix with that – the flavour of the gold doesn’t come through without that.
can ChatGPT unclog my toilet?
The jobs that will survive,maybe their scarceness and competition for them will raise the status of them when top category people are going for them. Maybe we’ll get a slew of books or even movies about how I was an investment banker then a bot took my job so I became a janitor and now I run a company supplying janitors,and they’ve all got degrees.
The jobs that will survive,maybe their scarceness and competition for them will raise the status of them when top category people are going for them. Maybe we’ll get a slew of books or even movies about how I was an investment banker then a bot took my job so I became a janitor and now I run a company supplying janitors,and they’ve all got degrees.
“…I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…”
At your local variety store I assume. Better get some fork handles while you are there, just in case. And don’t forget the barbecue spice-mix with that – the flavour of the gold doesn’t come through without that.
can ChatGPT unclog my toilet?
Chat GPT 5 can do 80% of Western Jobs according to some highly credentialed guy I never heard of before, but he sounded right.
All is needed is the interface between the customer and the business that Chat fills. Just that – spoken, written, Doctor, Lawyer, newsman, insurance seller, really – everything, because Chat can do your job better than you can.
I think there is your surge in unemployment lurking. I am buying gold, vegetable seeds, and canned foods…..trying to figure how to tie a butcher knife on the end of a stick for defense…. it will get rough….
The trigger to look for is a sudden acceleration in unemployment rising while at the same time the huge numbers of vacancies in western economies start to rapidly decline. Also a tailing off of rising wages across the board.