Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the Israeli-US strikes on Iran could shift the Ukraine war in Russia’s favor. He is correct, and European governments should draw the necessary conclusions while there is still time.

According to CNN, the Pentagon has already notified Congress that it is diverting anti-drone technology supplies from Ukraine to US forces in the Middle East. If the war continues and Iran doesn’t capitulate, this threat to Ukrainian defenses will only get worse.

Even more significant would be if Iran were to persist in blocking the Strait of Hormuz while simultaneously targeting oil and gas infrastructure across the Arab Gulf states. These actions could severely disrupt a chokepoint responsible for around a fifth of global crude and LNG exports, sending global energy markets into turmoil and threatening a new energy crisis in Europe. Gas intended for Europe is already being re-routed to Asia. Vladimir Putin has warned this week that he may cut all remaining gas supplies to Europe if the spike in global prices continues.

If Israeli and US military action plunges Iran into long-term chaos and civil war, then the consequent reduction in energy production and dependence on Russia’s oil and gas will strengthen it for some time to come. Given that oil prices have already risen over 10% since the strikes last weekend, this plays into Russia’s hands.

What’s more, with oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf cut, countries around the world will have no choice but to buy from Russia. India was showing signs of partially bowing to US pressure to reduce its purchases of Russian energy. That is now almost certainly over. So, most probably, are US and European moves to seize ships of Moscow’s “shadow fleet”. Russia will also be able to strengthen significantly its bargaining position with China.

As Paul Pillar has written: “The Israeli government probably would be satisfied with a Libya-type situation of chaos and weakness. One of the last things the Netanyahu government would want to see emerge in Iran is a stable, moderate democracy that enjoys good relations with the United States.”

Until last Saturday, there was reason to hope that economic stress and inflation in Russia would undermine the Kremlin’s will to continue the war. As long as the Iran conflict continues, this hope is empty. If Ukrainian defenses are visibly and rapidly diminishing, then the Russian hardliners who want to fight through to such a victory will be enormously strengthened, and Putin may lose any willingness to compromise. After all, Moscow’s willingness to compromise stems from the fact that its advances on the ground over the past two years have been extremely slow and costly. It does not mean that the dream of a much bigger victory has gone away.

This means that if European governments want a peace settlement which preserves an independent Ukraine in control of more than three-quarters of its territory, they are under serious time pressure to achieve it.

Events in Iran should force European leaders to the negotiating table. Until now, the European Union has refused to discuss sanctions relief and renewed purchases of Russian energy as part of a peace settlement. It has only made vague suggestions that sanctions could be reduced over time if Moscow abides by a settlement. War in Iran means that, for its own sake, Europe needs to propose an end to sanctions and openness to Russian energy as part of a settlement. The sooner the Europeans arrive at this conclusion, the sooner they will be able to contribute usefully to the security of their own continent.

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Anatol Lieven is a former war correspondent and Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington DC.

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