Manhattan, New York

In what may be a new and as-yet-undefined stage of capitalism, the prediction-market site Polymarket opened New York City’s first free grocery store today. Stealing a march on Zohran Mamdani, “The Polymarket” makes a humble promise: to provide New Yorkers with the chance to “achieve food security” at a time when grocery prices are surging. Even the Mayor is begrudgingly impressed.

There are, of course, a few caveats to this venture. The pop-up store will be open for just five days, and only for a few hours each day. Entry is capped at 300 customers per day, and supplies are limited. (This is still a business after all, even if its trading volume exceeded $9 billion last year).

I arrived just as The Polymarket opened its doors in Manhattan’s West Village, where the average rent for a studio apartment is $4,925. Already, a lengthy line snaked over three blocks, with the earliest arrivals getting there at 3am. Inside, it looked less like an ordinary grocery store and more like a scene from Pluribus, with spotless blue-tiled floors and a NASDAQ-style chyron reading “3,000,134 served”. The products, however, were reassuringly quotidian: discount socks, detergent, Honey Nut Cheerios and frozen chicken.

I came expecting to see swarms of hype beasts, influencers and students jostling to take selfies outside the store. There was plenty of that, but the reality was rather more grim. Nearly all of those at the front of the line were women, each one armed with what the French call chariots de course. Many appeared to be genuinely in need, with one telling me that she was struggling to keep up with the cost of groceries. “I got here five hours early because my bills are getting so high,” she said. “I can’t afford to miss out on free food.” Another woman, who was one of the first to arrive, declared as she left the store: “I’m so relieved! This helped a great deal. I’m waddling with all this stuff!” Others could not speak English, but told me that they were “muy feliz” several times after collecting their items.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, none of these women had even heard of Polymarket. If it wasn’t for the local news, they wouldn’t be here. Poor, very-offline immigrants are hardly the company’s target demographic. Online prediction markets are a young man’s game. But the platform is growing. Since receiving CFTC approval last year, Polymarket has expanded rapidly, boasting 450,000 monthly active traders in January. Now Americans are free to bet — sorry, “predict” — on everything from US strikes on Iran by 20 February (14% chance) to whether Jesus Christ will return by 2027 (4% chance).

There is a certain irony to a late-stage capitalist company appropriating the concept of a free public grocery store idea from the city’s socialist mayor. But at a time when the Wall Street Journal is chastising young people for “splurging out” on rotisserie chicken and buy-now-pay-later apps are financing pizza orders, perhaps The Polymarket is a necessary corrective. This might have been a publicity stunt, but it worked — a little too well.

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James Billot is UnHerd’s Newsroom editor.

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