February 21, 2025 - 7:00am

More than any recent conflict, the war between Israel and Hamas has demonstrated the affective power of symbolic images.

Since the release of the first Israeli hostages on 19 January, a new set of images have emerged that might yet again change the direction of the war and threaten chances for peace in the region. The hostage handovers have been organised by Hamas in a manner guaranteed to inflame public opinion in Israel and beyond. From the crisp, clean uniforms and spotless green headbands of their gunmen, to the gleaming Toyota pickup trucks, to the podiums on which hostages are displayed before their release, like a sinister Olympic medal ceremony. Behind them, Benjamin Netanyahu is depicted as a blood-sucking vampire.

The latest images, of the coffins of deceased hostages — Shiri Bibas and her two children, Ariel and Kfir, and the elderly Oded Lifshitz — suggest that Hamas is deliberately trying to provoke Israel into breaking the ceasefire agreement. This has been compounded by new reports suggesting that one of the bodies received was not that of Shiri Bibas, with the military unable to identify the body.

Not only are these optics particularly heinous and cruel, but Hamas is playing a shrewd game by giving the impression that its battalions are very much intact, and that the IDF has totally failed in its mission. Although thousands of Hamas fighters have been killed since October 2023, and much of their arsenal of weapons and tunnel network destroyed, the visual evidence of the past few weeks suggest that the group remains far from defeated. According to a recent report from US intelligence, Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new members since the start of the conflict.

Of course, most of those will be young, untrained, and unequipped — for now, at least. Assuming that the ceasefire holds, the extent to which Hamas poses a threat to Israel in the future will depend less on its ability to recruit than on how well it can rearm. Given the end of the Assad regime in Syria, the humbling of Hezbollah, and the broader tactical and strategic weakening of Iran, it is unlikely that Hamas will soon recoup its lost weaponry or be able to swiftly commence rebuilding the destroyed tunnels.

Despite receiving military and logistical assistance in the past, much of this was done before the death of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani, killed by an American drone in Baghdad in January 2020. Today, with Soleimani gone and Iran on the back foot — hamstrung by its deteriorating economy, loss of important allies, and the apparent destruction of its air defence systems — it is unlikely that Hamas will be resupplied from the outside any time soon.

Nonetheless, part of the current ceasefire and hostage release plan entails Israel giving up the Philadelphi corridor between Gaza and Egypt. If the IDF moves out, then smuggling via tunnels under the Egyptian border may yet provide Hamas a way to rearm.

This is one of the reasons why it is hard to see the ceasefire lasting through stages two and three, since it would be so difficult militarily and politically for Israel to give up such important strategic positions.

And then there is the issue of Donald Trump. It was Trump who ordered the assassination of Soleimani in 2020, and his appointment of committed supporters of Israel to key positions — Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Elise Stefanik at the UN — coupled with his recent comments about “cleaning out” Gaza, suggests he is in no mood to see Hamas regroup.

Perhaps his wild comments about Egypt and Jordan accepting Palestinian refugees are part of a ploy to force Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to go to greater lengths to prevent smuggling from his side of the border. Either way, the impact of visual images on Trump is well known, and seeing the hostage release videos is unlikely to mollify his attitude to Gaza. Therefore, while Hamas may have survived for now, it is not hard to see a further Israeli offensive unfolding — this time with the enthusiastic rather than reluctant support of the US.


David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

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