A very sensible woman surely we have now reached a stage where negotiations to resove the conflict are essential. Indians or Turks would make ideal intermediaries. Between the Minsk 2014 agreement, The Russian proposed Agreement for the future of European Security and the Chinese 12 point peace plan there has to be a constructive way forward.

I suspect Russia is already at the point where negotiations are acceptable. In war, the present lines of control will form the baseline for any negotiation. Pre-War borders will mean comparatively less. Thus, at present, any peace negotiation would necessarily favor Russia. Russia controls a quarter of Ukraine, which they will not be inclined to give back in a negotiation unless the other side gives something else up in return. Ukraine, on the other hand, still believes it is possible to retake some or all of this territory. So long as this remains true, they have no reason to negotiate. Moreover, most of the meaningful military support has come from the US. What they’re getting from European nations is important, but it has been mostly secondhand stuff that European nations bought from the US years or decades ago. It can easily be duplicated or bettered by the US if they so choose. It is, thus, almost irrelevant what Europe provides. They could cut off their spigot only for the US to open theirs slightly wider and Ukraine could end up better off for the exchange. Only a change in the political climate of the US or a defeat that convinces Ukraine’s leadership that retaking more territory is unrealistic will encourage them to accept any peace negotiations. European politics won’t move the needle unless the opposition to the war becomes so loud that it creates problems for the US, who is, realistically speaking, the only party other than Ukraine and Russia who have a say in the matter.

The first condition for successful peace talks is both sides stating they are intent on victory. That establishes the baseline from which they will make concessions. The second condition is both sides refusing to accept any conditions to the talks. That maximises the concessions they can make in negotiations. The third condition is that talks take place in complete secrecy. That minimises partisan interference deraiIling the negotiations. The fourth condition is that both parties participate with authority to commit and they commit simultaneously. Otherwise both sides risk their commitment moving their baseline against them.
It is difficult but not impossible. A public negotiation creates a pride of authorship in negotiators that will often create a deadlock.

Lovely post

Thanks

Neither side will begin negotiations until at least the summer.
Putin will cling to his maximalist goals until soundly beaten. Ukraine is hoarding its best troops for a spring offensive (which can only begin after the rasputitsa ends, and the ground becomes firm again). Then we’ll see whether Putin has squandered his new troops, or enough of them have survived, and are still willing to fight.
Negotiations are not a magic wand that suddenly brings peace. They can never reflect anything other than facts on the ground.
But right now no one knows just what those facts will be in six months time.
Sadly, we will only know after more fighting.

Uncle Sam (that supposed defender of democracy) wants a forever war in Ukraine. US arm manufactures are loving it and their people in both parties will ensure it carries on.