February 24, 2025 - 7:00am
The English historian A.J.P. Taylor once remarked of the revolutions of 1848 that “German history reached its turning point and failed to turn.” The German federal elections will lead to a similar result: Germany was led by the Left-leaning “traffic-light-coalition” of Social Democrats into economic decline and exacerbated the migration crisis that began under conservative CDU chancellor Angela Merkel. With this result, none of this is going to change.
After a record voter turnout of 84%, a percentage that has not been reached since German unification in the early 1990s, we see the greatest disappointment among the winners. Although Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats clearly won, the result is the second worst in the history of the party: in 2021 the CDU got 24% compared to 28% this year, marking the descent of a party that until four years ago never had less than 30% of the vote. The Social Democrats, meanwhile, gained 16% of the vote, which are the worst numbers since the first federal elections in 1949.
Luckily for soon-to-be-former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as things currently stand his party will be part of the next government since Merz has categorically ruled out any coalition with Alice Weidel’s Alternative for Germany (AfD). The latter is also among the disappointed, even though the party almost doubled its share and gained around 20%. Despite support from Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance, as well as numerous terrorist attacks in recent months that usually boost the numbers of Right-wing populists, this outcome was significantly below expectations.
The only true winner is the hard-Left party “Die Linke” (the Left) which only a few months ago appeared destined for falling under the 5% threshold for parliamentary seats. After the party was weakened by the departure of one of its most popular former members, Sahra Wagenknecht, Die Linke’s prospects looked dim. However, it performed well (gaining 8.6% of the vote) by targeting young voters who once might have voted for the Greens, but now feel that the Greens are just another establishment party. The Greens, meanwhile mustered a paltry 12% of the vote, but that still means they are likely to have a minister in a future government. Wagenknecht’s party, which at one point looked set to overtake Die Linke, barely registered 5%.
These results mean two things: the two Right-wing parties in parliament (the CDU plus its Bavarian sister party CSU and the AfD) have less than 50% of the popular vote. This is a massive surprise, since the expectation was that Germany would shift decisively in a more conservative direction. It also means that CDU leader Merz will need the support of two Left-of-centre parties to become chancellor with a stable majority.
Did the Germans want a real new beginning? Were they willing to try something other than continuity of the same failed policies that began under Angela Merkel? Given that Merz’s 28% vote share is equal to the joint vote share of the Greens and Social Democrats, it will be hard for Merz to move away from the policies of the previous government if he wants to enter government with them. Together the Right-wing parties won about 55% vote share, but the FDP did not make it into parliament and Merz’s CDU doesn’t want to work with the AfD.
Before this election, the expectation was that this result would change everything. But instead it will lead to a partial entrenchment of many of the policies of the last four years. Once again, Germany reached a turning point and refused to turn.
Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.
Raphfel
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SubscribeGermany lost. Nothing is going to change.
so business as usual, a failing Germany, more terrorist attacks, a muddled energy policy, further Deindustrialisation of Germany, which in turn accelerates the end of the EU
If Germany is not able to pay, you don’t have an EU
Now a smart British Leader would take full advantage of the self destruction of one it’s main competitors, of course Labour are intent on doing the same
The Social Democrats have 16% of the vote. They have been in government for 23 of the last 27 years, and will apparently be in government again for the next 4 years. This is called proportional representation.
It seems that eight decades are not enough for the Germans to get beyond WWII and its attendant horrors. Will the Germans drive Germany into the ground? If they cannot learn again to be proud of their own country, there may not be much of a country left to be proud of.
German voters clearly have not suffered enough.
Another 4 years of green deindustrialization, islamification, terrorist atrocities, mass migration, censorship – coming right up.
They love it
‘They love it’.
Do most of these things have a peculiar resonance in the depths of the German psyche?
Green = environmentalists and conservationists welcomed the Nazi regime.
‘Islamification’ = the religious state of national socialism with a prophet as leader.
Terrorist atrocities = the assaults on Jewish businesses.
Censorship = book burning.
Mass migration = the importation into Germany of forced labourers.
No exact equivalence is intended or implied.
“Before this election, the expectation was that this result would change everything. But instead it will lead to a partial entrenchment of many of the policies of the last four years.”
Seriously? Virtually no one thought there would be serious change in Germany.
Hahaha! Spot on.
To be fair, 20% is exactly in line with expectation for AfD. That said, Germany has chosen to stick, I imagine things will be much much worse economically when they next get to vote for their government.
I’m just a newbie when “analyzing” these political stuff, but I think that if y’all actually wants the AfD to be the leader in the election, then maybe they should find a way to attract more West Germans. Many years after unification but the East and West Germans are still quite different in mindset, if I’m not mistaken. In the former West Germany, (where votes overwhelmingly goes to CDU/CSU), three states, all in the South (BW, RP, Bayern/Bavaria) has the AfD comes second. In other West German states, AfD comes third or even fourth. Die Linke also suffered from that same situation before (most electoral success can only be found in the East), but for slightly different reason: being the succesor of the infamous East German SED.
On the other hand, for a person not coming from the Western or developed world, I am really admired by how UnHerd covers and analyzes Western socio-political information from an entirely different mindset and perspective that is not seen on “mainstream” sources, no matter being on the “left” or “right”. When I see the comments here, I quickly flocked to subscribe just to comment, even if I don’t have much money. Please never give up in bringing actual reality and different perspecitves about Western socio-political situations so that everyone around the world can see the truth. Thank you.
And I also have to add more to my comment:
– in Bayern/Bavaria, CSU is somewhat more conservative compared to its federal twin, which is why won big this time. Its vote share doubles those of AfD in the state. So maybe there should be a different strategy there.
– SPD seems to be done better at the “first vote” – the FPTP seats, while nearly vanished at the “second vote” (PR seats).
– SPD also wins only in two states (of which both are cities, this explain it all) – Hamburg and Bremen.
– Berlin is more complicated this time: AfD gains one constituency in the far eastern part, the first time they gained in Berlin. The eastern part seems to favor Die Linke and AfD, while the West is mostly black (with a few greens too)
You may be ‘new’ to this kind of analysis, but you clearly have a greater understanding of the political situation in Germany than I do (and I suspect most other contributors here).
Germans have voted for economic decline and Islamic invasion, and that’s what they’ll get.
80% in the highest turnout in years didn’t vote for AfD. Not quite the result Trump & Musk hoped for, and just perhaps a broader message about how electorates really view such Parties, and maybe also the external interference of likes of Elon. They have a constituency for sure, but they also encourage their opposition and they’ll remain minority.
Of course Trump claiming credit for right-ward shift just shows what we already know – he’s a strange relationship with Maths and doesn’t do much reflection before the latest hip-shot.
For those looking in at these results we need to appreciate Coalition the German way and they are used to that. Tighter migration controls will follow and are everywhere, but the demonisation and scapegoating the Far Right leans into will be contained. That is what Germans want.
Crucially now is what message Merz sends on Ukraine. It’s likely to be firmer in support to Zelensky than Scholz.
Yes the turnout is probably the most interesting part of the election. l’s have thought, given the muddle of parties and the chaos of the previous govt, apathy would reign.
It may be that the rise of AfD mobilised supporters of other parties to get out and vote against them, like with the French elections last year. As with France, that doesn’t seem to have coalesced into any other party gaining support, at least by share, except Die Linke.
We’ve seen this story before! The Establishment will convince themselves that the populist threat has passed because the AfD “only” met expectations rather than (as they feared) exceeding them. They will therefore not feel any pressure to change, so they will change nothing. And then they will be surprised what comes next.
As I write this most think that Sahra Wagenknecht’s party didn’t quite make the 5% needed to get into Parliament, so Friedrich Merz should be able to govern with just a two-party coalition. That doesn’t seem that important, but I think it will be.
With all the faults of first past the post, it has still got to be better than this sort of nonsense.
I wonder if Germany also operates a liberal postal voting system?
Aren’t CDU/SPD and regional affiliates basically Centrists anyway along with the ousted Liberals? About 50%
You the have the AfD consolidating on 20% and the 3 ‘Left’ wing parties, one of which is anti Open Borders with about 25%
Think of Germany as a combination of the Kingdoms of Prussia and Bavaria and it starts to have a crazy logic.
When the headline is a closed question, the answer is no
It could be that Germany is just a little bit behind the curve because of historical reasons. Also it is true they have always been a bit more conservative and reactionary during revolutionary times.
If other European countries are any indication, we already know what will happen. Center-right establishment parties like the CDU will coopt anti-immigrant and populist rhetoric but since they are deeply rooted in the status quo they will not deliver. Especially a manegerial lawyer like Friedrich Merz – who enriched himself in various privileged positions in just about every crony financial multinational imaginable – seems like a guy that will reinforce everything that is frustrating normal Germans. And so dissatisfaction grows stronger and stronger.
This means that Germany will be hosed until the next election. Of course, there will be economic decay, violence from all sides, and a slide toward a third-world country. This has happened before and no one, including the present Germans, thought the results were a great idea. The parties had better work with the AFD, they really don’t have a choice. Of course, this is what you get when you have bureaucrats leading countries. No one is in charge, just shuffling paperwork.