July 7, 2023 - 1:00pm
In a recent interview, Chancellor Olaf Scholz claimed that Germany needed more immigration in order to save the country’s pension system. The question of just how many was answered shortly after by the chair of the Council of Economic Experts, an institution that advises the federal government. In order to account for population decline and emigration, Germany will need no fewer than 1.5 million new immigrants per year.
Just to put that number into context, during the refugee crisis of 2015 Germany accepted slightly over 1 million people, straining the capabilities of the country’s social services perilously close to breaking point, and marking the beginning of the rise of the AfD. Not to worry, argue German politicians, since these 1.5 million would be skilled workers and their families, not a wave of refugees like those who arrived in 2015.
The question remains, however, as to why such large numbers of highly talented individuals should come to Germany year after year. In the United States, 55% of startup companies valued at $1 billion or more have been founded by immigrants, like Elon Musk; this figure rises to 64% when including the children of immigrants, such as Steve Jobs. But the United States has a very different offer to make: whatever one thinks of the current state of the American Dream, the ideal remains that anyone can move to the US, start their own company and within a generation be the head of a multi-billion-dollar corporate empire. The German pitch, on the other hand, seems to consist of coming to the country, paying extremely high taxes and financing the pension of German retirees. It is unlikely that a software engineer from Taiwan or India will find this more appealing than the opportunities available in North America.
It is, in fact, not even clear if Germany is still appealing to Germans. Every year 180,000 of them leave the country, 75% of whom have higher education degrees and in many cases under the age 40. The emigration rate of 5.1% is the third highest among the 38 member states of the OECD and a clear indicator that skilled labour is not only not coming to Germany, but is actually leaving.
At the same time, 45% of the recipients of unemployment benefits don’t hold a German passport, which demonstrates that a significant part of the current migration system is draining, rather than strengthening, the welfare state. This creates a vicious cycle of an ever-growing need for higher taxes or reduced social services, which in turn makes the country less attractive to high-skilled immigrants.
Instead of solving this dilemma, there are growing calls for taxes on high-income citizens, because apparently German politicians believe that immigrants would prefer paying taxes to getting rich. This is a dangerous delusion that will continue to prevent the emergence of a German Jeff Bezos or Mark Zuckerberg while encouraging immigration into the welfare state. Not only is this unsustainable, it will also exacerbate the brain drain already taking place. Germany, clearly, is not the mecca for highly skilled labour that it was just a few decades ago.
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SubscribeEver heard of Ponzi schemes?
Haha! So right! This is just eye popping stuff. Have they no heard of robots & AI?? Is this the 1960s?? Have they also not worked out WHY EU is an Innovation Free Regulatory Hellzone? Its tragi-vomic that all EU states & our EU Clone UK are all on the same crazy Death Wish trajectory. Super high taxes!! Expand Entitled Welfarism to 6m!! F*** Business with more taxes, the end of cheap energy and Net Zero! QE Bomb & Magic Money Roger our State Finances into Hyper Debt!!! And embrace near uncontrolled Open Borders & Multiculturalism which adds 1m plus unhoused per annum (all peter pan super fit doctors & lawyers who presumably will never age and put pressure on Our broken NHS in a few decades time!!! Madness!!!
I had to destroy the country to save the pension scheme
Haha! So right! This is just eye popping stuff. Have they no heard of robots & AI?? Is this the 1960s?? Have they also not worked out WHY EU is an Innovation Free Regulatory Hellzone? Its tragi-vomic that all EU states & our EU Clone UK are all on the same crazy Death Wish trajectory. Super high taxes!! Expand Entitled Welfarism to 6m!! F*** Business with more taxes, the end of cheap energy and Net Zero! QE Bomb & Magic Money Roger our State Finances into Hyper Debt!!! And embrace near uncontrolled Open Borders & Multiculturalism which adds 1m plus unhoused per annum (all peter pan super fit doctors & lawyers who presumably will never age and put pressure on Our broken NHS in a few decades time!!! Madness!!!
I had to destroy the country to save the pension scheme
Ever heard of Ponzi schemes?
Poland is still growing despite being largely anti-immigration while the rest of Europe while being heavily pro-immigration seems to have riots and economic troubles.
Somehow I think we’re being sold a lie about immigration and that the loss of trust by too rapid immigration can carry greater costs than the influx of labour.
True. Only we’re not being “sold” the lie. It is being rammed down our throats, gratis.
I use this example a lot.
I think one thing that Poland has is a homogenous culture potentially high trust with it.
I wonder what the unquantifiable effects of decrease in trust by having such rapid immigration are to an economy (that’s not to say I’m totally anti-immigration, just not too rapid).
True. Only we’re not being “sold” the lie. It is being rammed down our throats, gratis.
I use this example a lot.
I think one thing that Poland has is a homogenous culture potentially high trust with it.
I wonder what the unquantifiable effects of decrease in trust by having such rapid immigration are to an economy (that’s not to say I’m totally anti-immigration, just not too rapid).
Poland is still growing despite being largely anti-immigration while the rest of Europe while being heavily pro-immigration seems to have riots and economic troubles.
Somehow I think we’re being sold a lie about immigration and that the loss of trust by too rapid immigration can carry greater costs than the influx of labour.
Has Scholz never heard of automation? Is he really so ignorant of cheap energy options, such as gas or nuclear power? Has he never considered making it easier for natives to have families? And where is he planning to put all these new people? Does he want the whole of Europe to be some gigantic, polyglot mega-city? These and the author’s objections are, of course, unanswerable; which is why the Scholz class has made it all but a criminal offence to make them in open forum. Threads such as this one hardly count and – to the extent that they do – the Scholz class is planning to shut them down through government control in any case. But now we know – replacement is clearly the aim; and the arguments in its favour are never direct and always false. Could there be any plainer proof that our current political masters have turned against us and are openly aiming at something akin to our destruction?
Just google the replacement theory and the first page is one “You are racist!!!!!!” article after the other. Just like that scene from The Naked Gun where a fireworks factory is exploding in the background and Frank Drebin is saying to passers by “There’s nothing to see here.”
Of course. Big Tech is under the control of the hard left. One of the founders of “Wikipedia” has denounced its bias; and if you look up “western art” you will be supplied with hostile critiques rather than praise or admiration for European culture. The result has been to drain such attacks and accusations of all their impact and – paradoxically – to liberate thought. All the left can do, meanwhile, is to indulge in a perpetual tantrum composed of infantile moralising and misdirected blame. The question which lies before us now, therefore, is the most serious yet: witnessing its own stupidity and failure, will the left draw back from current postures and restore itself to moderation? Or will it use its institutional grip to move towards another period of full blown totalitarian atrocity?
What does this rant have to do with pension funding?
What does your rant have to do with anything? Apart from pandering to your titanic smugness, that is?
What does your rant have to do with anything? Apart from pandering to your titanic smugness, that is?
What does this rant have to do with pension funding?
Of course. Big Tech is under the control of the hard left. One of the founders of “Wikipedia” has denounced its bias; and if you look up “western art” you will be supplied with hostile critiques rather than praise or admiration for European culture. The result has been to drain such attacks and accusations of all their impact and – paradoxically – to liberate thought. All the left can do, meanwhile, is to indulge in a perpetual tantrum composed of infantile moralising and misdirected blame. The question which lies before us now, therefore, is the most serious yet: witnessing its own stupidity and failure, will the left draw back from current postures and restore itself to moderation? Or will it use its institutional grip to move towards another period of full blown totalitarian atrocity?
Just google the replacement theory and the first page is one “You are racist!!!!!!” article after the other. Just like that scene from The Naked Gun where a fireworks factory is exploding in the background and Frank Drebin is saying to passers by “There’s nothing to see here.”
Has Scholz never heard of automation? Is he really so ignorant of cheap energy options, such as gas or nuclear power? Has he never considered making it easier for natives to have families? And where is he planning to put all these new people? Does he want the whole of Europe to be some gigantic, polyglot mega-city? These and the author’s objections are, of course, unanswerable; which is why the Scholz class has made it all but a criminal offence to make them in open forum. Threads such as this one hardly count and – to the extent that they do – the Scholz class is planning to shut them down through government control in any case. But now we know – replacement is clearly the aim; and the arguments in its favour are never direct and always false. Could there be any plainer proof that our current political masters have turned against us and are openly aiming at something akin to our destruction?
Scholz is either innumerate, spectacularly ill-informed or dishonest. Of course, all three qualities are not out of the question.
He is definitely dishonest. He also suffers from memory loss! https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-parliament-investigation-tax-fraud-scandal-hamburg-cum-ex/
He is definitely dishonest. He also suffers from memory loss! https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-parliament-investigation-tax-fraud-scandal-hamburg-cum-ex/
Scholz is either innumerate, spectacularly ill-informed or dishonest. Of course, all three qualities are not out of the question.
That EU Freedom of Movement is doing well, according to that link.
Top locations for Germans to emigrate to in order:
Switzerland (non-EU)
USA (non-EU)
Austria (EU)
Great Britain (non-EU)
That EU Freedom of Movement is doing well, according to that link.
Top locations for Germans to emigrate to in order:
Switzerland (non-EU)
USA (non-EU)
Austria (EU)
Great Britain (non-EU)
Of course they do
Like France, diversity is Germany’s strength
Of course they do
Like France, diversity is Germany’s strength
My mother is German, and I spent a part of my childhood (four years of primary and a few years of secondary school) in Bavaria. I left for uni, and never came back. Having lived there and having attended the school system, I speak fluent German, and I have received employment offers from a number of companies. My net income would be significantly less, and I just don’t find any of the offers competitive.
Furthermore, the societal changes that have occurred in recent years as a result of the influx of mostly Arab Muslim men, I have absolutely no desire to ever go back. If I, who has fond childhood memories and language fluency, feel that way, I can only imagine how unattractive Germany is for other skilled workers without those ties.
What a very sad comment. The West is committing mass cultural suicide.
What a very sad comment. The West is committing mass cultural suicide.
My mother is German, and I spent a part of my childhood (four years of primary and a few years of secondary school) in Bavaria. I left for uni, and never came back. Having lived there and having attended the school system, I speak fluent German, and I have received employment offers from a number of companies. My net income would be significantly less, and I just don’t find any of the offers competitive.
Furthermore, the societal changes that have occurred in recent years as a result of the influx of mostly Arab Muslim men, I have absolutely no desire to ever go back. If I, who has fond childhood memories and language fluency, feel that way, I can only imagine how unattractive Germany is for other skilled workers without those ties.
I for one welcome Germany’s tolerant attitude. Perhaps they would be willing to take some of the boat people?
I for one welcome Germany’s tolerant attitude. Perhaps they would be willing to take some of the boat people?
Perhaps European pensioners should start immigrating to poorer countries. More bang for money, and their countries would remain immigrant free.
Perhaps European pensioners should start immigrating to poorer countries. More bang for money, and their countries would remain immigrant free.
At some point the German pension system will not be able to pay benefits according to its current formula. Let’s see what happens then.
Germany also has a current fertility rate of 1.612 births per woman, not enough to sustain its population.
I think we all know what happens in Germany when their economy fails.
I think we all know what happens in Germany when their economy fails.
At some point the German pension system will not be able to pay benefits according to its current formula. Let’s see what happens then.
Germany also has a current fertility rate of 1.612 births per woman, not enough to sustain its population.
Until the west convinces women of the consequences of not birthing successive generations the native rate will continue to plummet. Replacing the native population is not the answer.
They better start liking hummus and start hiding their pride flags.
They better start liking hummus and start hiding their pride flags.
Until the west convinces women of the consequences of not birthing successive generations the native rate will continue to plummet. Replacing the native population is not the answer.
“55% of startup companies valued at $1 billion or more have been founded by immigrants”.
It would be interesting to see the racial categories of these immigrants.
“55% of startup companies valued at $1 billion or more have been founded by immigrants”.
It would be interesting to see the racial categories of these immigrants.
Olaf Scholz should immediately send C-130 troop transport aircraft to the Texas/Arizona/California – Mexican “border”. He will find all the immigrant labor he needs and more – drug and human traffickers, Chinese agents, people with serious contagious diseases, orphan children – in other words, the poor, the huddled masses and the wretched refuse of Mexico, Central and South America yearning to breath free – and who are walking across the “border” – illegally and in the millions – with the explicit consent of the President of the United States of America in clear violation of his oath of office and U.S. immigration law.
What Olaf will not find is nice, refined immigrants with advanced skills. The majority of those crossing into the United States illegally are desperate, willing to work under the radar of labor law, and take menial jobs such as working in the hotel and restaurant industries at the lowest level, yard maintenance, and any unskilled, back-breaking job they can find. Fewer than one in a thousand speak English, and they have often risked their lives, and spent every peso they ever earned
( and some they haven’t yet earned ) paying a “coyote” to smuggle them across a remote section of border – if the human traffickers don’t just abandon them to die in the southern desert. And, if the truth be told, apart from the Honduran gang members and Mexican cartel agents, most of the people immigrating illegally into the United States are not coming to do harm. They simply want a better life. ( e.g. , the murder rate in Chicago is not due to violence on the part of illegal immigrants )
And, oh, by the way you smug European progressives, it’s about time you learned some history and stopped lecturing Americans on our wicked, racist society. A society where people of Hispanic descent are now a majority in the country’s most populous state. The most free, diverse country on the planet, whose bloodiest conflict was a Civil War in which there were two million Americans casualties in the fight to end slavery. We may have our social blemishes and we a long way from being a perfect nation, but let that people who is without sin be the first to throw rocks at us. Note that when people living in developing nations are asked where they would prefer to go if they were to emigrate, the overwhelming majority say, “The United States of America”.
P.S. There are zero ( nada ) immigrants moving surreptitiously in a southerly direction across the U.S. – Mexican border. The flow is distinctly one-way: north. The reasons are manifest. And if anyone does try to enter Mexico illegally, they will be immediately arrested, incarcerated, and held without bail or appeal until the Mexican authorities get around to reviewing their case – which could be months. Unlike in America, where illegal migrants ( by the millions ) are stopped, detained briefly, and then released into the U.S. pending their “refugee” status hearing, and given – gratis – abundant financial and social services. 95% of these migrants never appear for their hearings. They disappear into sanctuary states like California, which feeds them, schools them, gives them healthcare and drivers licenses and asks nothing in return. There are nearly seven million such illegal immigrants living in California alone ( total population 41 million ) – today. Now, tell us how “racist” and “xenophobic” America is…
Olaf Scholz should immediately send C-130 troop transport aircraft to the Texas/Arizona/California – Mexican “border”. He will find all the immigrant labor he needs and more – drug and human traffickers, Chinese agents, people with serious contagious diseases, orphan children – in other words, the poor, the huddled masses and the wretched refuse of Mexico, Central and South America yearning to breath free – and who are walking across the “border” – illegally and in the millions – with the explicit consent of the President of the United States of America in clear violation of his oath of office and U.S. immigration law.
What Olaf will not find is nice, refined immigrants with advanced skills. The majority of those crossing into the United States illegally are desperate, willing to work under the radar of labor law, and take menial jobs such as working in the hotel and restaurant industries at the lowest level, yard maintenance, and any unskilled, back-breaking job they can find. Fewer than one in a thousand speak English, and they have often risked their lives, and spent every peso they ever earned
( and some they haven’t yet earned ) paying a “coyote” to smuggle them across a remote section of border – if the human traffickers don’t just abandon them to die in the southern desert. And, if the truth be told, apart from the Honduran gang members and Mexican cartel agents, most of the people immigrating illegally into the United States are not coming to do harm. They simply want a better life. ( e.g. , the murder rate in Chicago is not due to violence on the part of illegal immigrants )
And, oh, by the way you smug European progressives, it’s about time you learned some history and stopped lecturing Americans on our wicked, racist society. A society where people of Hispanic descent are now a majority in the country’s most populous state. The most free, diverse country on the planet, whose bloodiest conflict was a Civil War in which there were two million Americans casualties in the fight to end slavery. We may have our social blemishes and we a long way from being a perfect nation, but let that people who is without sin be the first to throw rocks at us. Note that when people living in developing nations are asked where they would prefer to go if they were to emigrate, the overwhelming majority say, “The United States of America”.
P.S. There are zero ( nada ) immigrants moving surreptitiously in a southerly direction across the U.S. – Mexican border. The flow is distinctly one-way: north. The reasons are manifest. And if anyone does try to enter Mexico illegally, they will be immediately arrested, incarcerated, and held without bail or appeal until the Mexican authorities get around to reviewing their case – which could be months. Unlike in America, where illegal migrants ( by the millions ) are stopped, detained briefly, and then released into the U.S. pending their “refugee” status hearing, and given – gratis – abundant financial and social services. 95% of these migrants never appear for their hearings. They disappear into sanctuary states like California, which feeds them, schools them, gives them healthcare and drivers licenses and asks nothing in return. There are nearly seven million such illegal immigrants living in California alone ( total population 41 million ) – today. Now, tell us how “racist” and “xenophobic” America is…
As a German all I can say is that Germany may now proudly claim the title of dumbest country on the planet. And Scholz is a corrupt POS (was involved in the big Cum-Ex trading and tax evasion scandal with Warburg Bank).
As a German all I can say is that Germany may now proudly claim the title of dumbest country on the planet. And Scholz is a corrupt POS (was involved in the big Cum-Ex trading and tax evasion scandal with Warburg Bank).
I hope Suella is reading this….Maybe we could substitute Germany for Rwanda. After all, our Courts, beloved of all things European as they appear to be, can hardly claim that is an unsafe country!
I hope Suella is reading this….Maybe we could substitute Germany for Rwanda. After all, our Courts, beloved of all things European as they appear to be, can hardly claim that is an unsafe country!
Death wish to Germany really. This is a country which doesn’t tolerate English at all even for beginners and expect a great deal from them. The reality that every German should know is that English has somehow managed to become the world language since the past 400 years not German. I respect German language 1000% but understand the reality of the world and work with people in peace and give room for people to practice German and get good at it. Nobody is destroying German language or culture.
Death wish to Germany really. This is a country which doesn’t tolerate English at all even for beginners and expect a great deal from them. The reality that every German should know is that English has somehow managed to become the world language since the past 400 years not German. I respect German language 1000% but understand the reality of the world and work with people in peace and give room for people to practice German and get good at it. Nobody is destroying German language or culture.
Well then, that solves our problem in the UK. Forget Rwanda.
Well then, that solves our problem in the UK. Forget Rwanda.
Perhaps Germany needs 1.5 million skilled workers a year to save their pension system. But many immigrants can’t speak German. Some are even illiterate in their native language. These people are going to be wards of the state for many years and won’t help Germany at all with its pension problems.
Perhaps Germany needs 1.5 million skilled workers a year to save their pension system. But many immigrants can’t speak German. Some are even illiterate in their native language. These people are going to be wards of the state for many years and won’t help Germany at all with its pension problems.
For further reading:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/a-texas-border-tour/
For further reading:
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/a-texas-border-tour/
Scholz is just Merkel in a suit … and it is she who is primarily responsible for the influx of economic migrants to Europe. In many countries they genuinely believe Europes borders are open and so they come.
As with so many mistaken political programs, when you look at the data that is available, there is zero evidence of a positive contribution by immigrants economically, zero evidence of the “benefits” of social diversity and zero evidence of the “benefits” of multi-culturalism. In fact where there is data, and politicians are generally very unwilling to be held to account by evidence so don’t collect it, the opposite is shown to be true. And of course the real hot potato that no politician wants to pick up is the fact that as the waves of predominantly young, muslim men gather in a country the serious crime rates rapidly increase with sexual offences soaring, as they come from cultures in which women are still chattels. There is a basic cultural incompatibilty and a general unwillingness to assimilate and put the laws of the country above the “laws” of their religion, as has been seen on the streets of Germany only last week.
The data from Denmark gives a good indication of how immigration effects a Western European country: https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-denmark “The report finds that the total net contribution in 2018 by native Danish people was +41 billion DKK. The contribution of immigrants and their descendants was net negative at -24 billion …” “Non-Western immigrants and descendants were 8.9% of the population and accounted for 25.4% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Homicide is very uncommon in Denmark, but we see a similar pattern for homicide convictions. For rape convictions, the pattern is even stronger….”
It is going to take a determined political stance to reverse the changes that have already taken place in western societies and prevent the situation worsening. That stance will require policies that in modern think will be described as racist and almost certainly islamophobic. But unless the nettle is grasped soon the societies that are proving so attractive to the worlds poor, the US, Canada and Western Europe, will no longer be the the attractive places they were.
Scholz is just Merkel in a suit … and it is she who is primarily responsible for the influx of economic migrants to Europe. In many countries they genuinely believe Europes borders are open and so they come.
As with so many mistaken political programs, when you look at the data that is available, there is zero evidence of a positive contribution by immigrants economically, zero evidence of the “benefits” of social diversity and zero evidence of the “benefits” of multi-culturalism. In fact where there is data, and politicians are generally very unwilling to be held to account by evidence so don’t collect it, the opposite is shown to be true. And of course the real hot potato that no politician wants to pick up is the fact that as the waves of predominantly young, muslim men gather in a country the serious crime rates rapidly increase with sexual offences soaring, as they come from cultures in which women are still chattels. There is a basic cultural incompatibilty and a general unwillingness to assimilate and put the laws of the country above the “laws” of their religion, as has been seen on the streets of Germany only last week.
The data from Denmark gives a good indication of how immigration effects a Western European country: https://inquisitivebird.substack.com/p/the-effects-of-immigration-in-denmark “The report finds that the total net contribution in 2018 by native Danish people was +41 billion DKK. The contribution of immigrants and their descendants was net negative at -24 billion …” “Non-Western immigrants and descendants were 8.9% of the population and accounted for 25.4% of the nation’s violent crime convictions. Homicide is very uncommon in Denmark, but we see a similar pattern for homicide convictions. For rape convictions, the pattern is even stronger….”
It is going to take a determined political stance to reverse the changes that have already taken place in western societies and prevent the situation worsening. That stance will require policies that in modern think will be described as racist and almost certainly islamophobic. But unless the nettle is grasped soon the societies that are proving so attractive to the worlds poor, the US, Canada and Western Europe, will no longer be the the attractive places they were.
Just adjust the pension scheme rules from DB to DC and do so retroactively. It really is that simple. What a lame excuse to ruin a country. German self-hatred knows no bounds. A country is more than (i) an economy, (ii) a pension system, (iii) a health system. These politicians should realize that they are in charge of the country as a whole not just the ancillary welfare state parts run by the State.
Thank God that Canada, a unique case, has a self-funding pension system, no compulsory retirement age and a selective immigration system that uses. a point system. All political parties agree that we need massive immigration, now at half a million a year, mainly for labour shortages.
Canada—We took in 1 million new people last year. There is absolutely no place for them to live! Sky high house prices–extremely unaffordable high rents. Also a health care system that has collapsed
It seems crazy given the vast land mass of Canada that there should be a housing crisis. Why is that?
It seems crazy given the vast land mass of Canada that there should be a housing crisis. Why is that?
Or
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/so-how-broke-is-the-canada-pension-plan
Canada—We took in 1 million new people last year. There is absolutely no place for them to live! Sky high house prices–extremely unaffordable high rents. Also a health care system that has collapsed
Or
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/so-how-broke-is-the-canada-pension-plan
Thank God that Canada, a unique case, has a self-funding pension system, no compulsory retirement age and a selective immigration system that uses. a point system. All political parties agree that we need massive immigration, now at half a million a year, mainly for labour shortages.