The author’s argument makes sense but I don’t know enough about the oil and gas market to assess the cost to Russia of reducing its energy sales to Poland and Bulgaria. The author says that the resulting rise in oil and gas prices will offset the loss of revenue to Russia from Poland and Bulgaria. But how long can Russia play that economic game before its loss of revenue bites?
I first read about Russia cutting energy supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in Politico yesterday. Their author argued it would have little effect on these countries which were already diversifying their energy sources. Who to believe if you’re not an expert?
I’d like to read an Unherd article that discusses these issues at greater length. Have China and India been scared off buying Russian gas and oil by the Americans? How easy is it for Russia to switch distribution of its oil and energy to China and India and away from the West?
Certainly Poland is attempting to diversify its sources.
Google “Baltic Pipe” a project that will bring Norwegian and Danish gas to Poland . The most troublesome and delayed part is not the subsea pipe, but where it crosses Jutland.
It doesn’t take too much imagination to think that Putin’s people might be encouraging protestors, as they were known to have done with the anti-frackers. It’s certainly in his interest to.
Snapper AG
2 years ago
Poland has been preparing for this. They will be free of the need for Russian gas by year end. The Poles will be fine.
Tim Lever
2 years ago
Europe is simply stupid and is being played by the US. Instead of having a stable and mutually beneficial trading relationship with Russia we have behaved in a aggressive and confrontational way by encouraging Ukraine to expect NATO and EU membership. When it came to it we are actually not prepared to go to war to protect Ukraine (thank God). Now Russia reacts and Europe destroys it own economy, buys loads of US weapons and imports expensive US gas – who exactly is benefiting from this? Certainly not Ukraine or Europe.
If nothing else, yours is a masterpiece of propagandist language – Lenin or Hitler would be proud! So, it is the United States that the problem! I for one am rather glad that the hegemonic power has been up until now the US and not some of the obvious competitors: Nazi Germany (killed millions), the Soviet Union (killed many more millions) or Maoist China (killed even more millions)!
This kind of analysis might have seemed half plausible until Putin decided to launch the largest invasion since the 1930s and attempted to utterly destroy a neighbouring country, with which it had signed a treaty recognising mutual borders only in 1991. I’ve yet to hear any half convincing argument as to why this aggression – of course not Putin’s first – differs in any meaningful way from Hitler’s modus operandi in the 1930s. It has a similar set of bogus, contrived grievances, and a desire to collect all the Russian / German speakers in his empire, whether they like it or not.
Ukrainians would like to live in a free nation, and certainly not form a part or a puppet of the kleptocratic tyranny which very sadly is being steadily consolidated in Russia without any help from us. Ukraine poses no threat to Russia at all, except of course as an increasingly free nation. To avoid ‘provoking’ Putin then, why don’t we save ourselves the bother and let him decide how to run our own societies?
But that was okay, as was Libya, Afghanistan and the countless other sovereign nations that the USA (with a little help from the UK) has invaded and often completely trashed with shock and awe tactics so that American contractors then had to go in and rebuild them (making huge profits), and thankfully the kind folks at the US arms dealers had lots of weapons to sell countries (making huge profits). It is a good job America are the good guys 😉
You are right in everything you say! It seems to me that decisions were made by the leaders of European countries (and especially the UK) without thinking the situation through, There was an assumption that the Russian people would turn against their leader and, if not that, then Putin would crumple under pressure. There was no indication that that was likely..
The UN Secretary General has shown himself to be wise in all his utterances this week. It should be left to him to negotiate between the two sides (with only Ukraine and Russia present) restoring peace in that region and hastening the return of prosperity for ALL his members wherever they live. Every countries is now affected by this conflict..
Depends if you believe BBC/Financial Times reports today that Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Austria are ready to pay for gas in roubles via conversion through a Swiss gazprombank.
Larry Adlard
2 years ago
These are U.S. inspired sanctions. Naturally, they select goods that will only have a minimal impact on them. It has a bigger impact on their competitors.
Agree on the “embargo” point, but I have not read the contract(s). Was payment currency stipulated? If Russia accepted payment in USD, as they apparently had for a long time, did the contract give Russia the right to limit the payment currency? If not, might not Russia also be in non-compliance?
The author’s argument makes sense but I don’t know enough about the oil and gas market to assess the cost to Russia of reducing its energy sales to Poland and Bulgaria. The author says that the resulting rise in oil and gas prices will offset the loss of revenue to Russia from Poland and Bulgaria. But how long can Russia play that economic game before its loss of revenue bites?
I first read about Russia cutting energy supplies to Poland and Bulgaria in Politico yesterday. Their author argued it would have little effect on these countries which were already diversifying their energy sources. Who to believe if you’re not an expert?
I’d like to read an Unherd article that discusses these issues at greater length. Have China and India been scared off buying Russian gas and oil by the Americans? How easy is it for Russia to switch distribution of its oil and energy to China and India and away from the West?
Certainly Poland is attempting to diversify its sources.
Google “Baltic Pipe” a project that will bring Norwegian and Danish gas to Poland . The most troublesome and delayed part is not the subsea pipe, but where it crosses Jutland.
It doesn’t take too much imagination to think that Putin’s people might be encouraging protestors, as they were known to have done with the anti-frackers. It’s certainly in his interest to.
Poland has been preparing for this. They will be free of the need for Russian gas by year end. The Poles will be fine.
Europe is simply stupid and is being played by the US. Instead of having a stable and mutually beneficial trading relationship with Russia we have behaved in a aggressive and confrontational way by encouraging Ukraine to expect NATO and EU membership. When it came to it we are actually not prepared to go to war to protect Ukraine (thank God). Now Russia reacts and Europe destroys it own economy, buys loads of US weapons and imports expensive US gas – who exactly is benefiting from this? Certainly not Ukraine or Europe.
Vote Putin!
So no argument or refutation merely an insult.
“Reacts”!!
If nothing else, yours is a masterpiece of propagandist language – Lenin or Hitler would be proud! So, it is the United States that the problem! I for one am rather glad that the hegemonic power has been up until now the US and not some of the obvious competitors: Nazi Germany (killed millions), the Soviet Union (killed many more millions) or Maoist China (killed even more millions)!
This kind of analysis might have seemed half plausible until Putin decided to launch the largest invasion since the 1930s and attempted to utterly destroy a neighbouring country, with which it had signed a treaty recognising mutual borders only in 1991. I’ve yet to hear any half convincing argument as to why this aggression – of course not Putin’s first – differs in any meaningful way from Hitler’s modus operandi in the 1930s. It has a similar set of bogus, contrived grievances, and a desire to collect all the Russian / German speakers in his empire, whether they like it or not.
Ukrainians would like to live in a free nation, and certainly not form a part or a puppet of the kleptocratic tyranny which very sadly is being steadily consolidated in Russia without any help from us. Ukraine poses no threat to Russia at all, except of course as an increasingly free nation. To avoid ‘provoking’ Putin then, why don’t we save ourselves the bother and let him decide how to run our own societies?
Didn’t the invasion of Iraq and Syria – both sovereign nations create a precedent?.
But that was okay, as was Libya, Afghanistan and the countless other sovereign nations that the USA (with a little help from the UK) has invaded and often completely trashed with shock and awe tactics so that American contractors then had to go in and rebuild them (making huge profits), and thankfully the kind folks at the US arms dealers had lots of weapons to sell countries (making huge profits). It is a good job America are the good guys 😉
I think you only see crimes committed by (semi-)official state enemies but are blind to the ones committed by us and our allies. That’s very loyal.
You are right in everything you say! It seems to me that decisions were made by the leaders of European countries (and especially the UK) without thinking the situation through, There was an assumption that the Russian people would turn against their leader and, if not that, then Putin would crumple under pressure. There was no indication that that was likely..
The UN Secretary General has shown himself to be wise in all his utterances this week. It should be left to him to negotiate between the two sides (with only Ukraine and Russia present) restoring peace in that region and hastening the return of prosperity for ALL his members wherever they live. Every countries is now affected by this conflict..
Putin toady.
What are these indications?
Wishful thinking for a pro Russian joinsliy
Depends if you believe BBC/Financial Times reports today that Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Austria are ready to pay for gas in roubles via conversion through a Swiss gazprombank.
These are U.S. inspired sanctions. Naturally, they select goods that will only have a minimal impact on them. It has a bigger impact on their competitors.
Further to my comments below, check this article on Baltic Pipe delays (due to concerns of disturbing Danish bats and mice) from July 2021:
Prescient, or just stating the bleeding obvious?:
https://www.dw.com/en/baltic-pipe-delay-to-push-poland-back-into-russias-arms/a-58318657
Who wrote the headline? What Russia is doing is not an embargo, but suspension of supplies due to contractual non-compliance.
Agree on the “embargo” point, but I have not read the contract(s). Was payment currency stipulated? If Russia accepted payment in USD, as they apparently had for a long time, did the contract give Russia the right to limit the payment currency? If not, might not Russia also be in non-compliance?