Does Russia have the resources to annex Belarus? From a practical standpoint, this would seem to be a challenging task in peacetime, let alone when Russia’s military and other resources are severely stretched in Ukraine. From a Belarussian perspective, might this be a relatively beneficial time for a leadership change, when Russia is overcommitted in Ukraine and less able to interfere in Belarusian politics?
J Bryant
1 year ago
Does Russia have the resources to annex Belarus? From a practical standpoint, this would seem to be a challenging task in peacetime, let alone when Russia’s military and other resources are severely stretched in Ukraine. From a Belarussian perspective, might this be a relatively beneficial time for a leadership change, when Russia is overcommitted in Ukraine and less able to interfere in Belarusian politics?
Ronnie B
1 year ago
I think it far more likely that Lukashenko’s incapacitation or death may spark first a disputed handover and then renewed attempts by opposition leaders to establish themselves in country. Lukashenko has kept Belarus out of the Ukraine war as he knows his people do not support it. If Putin attempts to force the issue in Belarus with Lukashenko’s demise, he may find he has a second war, sorry I mean special operation, on his hands … and no increase in military capacity.
It is clear that those who were in the streets in the 2020 have not since settled with their domestic dictator, let alone the big brothe and his war. They are standing ready.
It is clear that those who were in the streets in the 2020 have not since settled with their domestic dictator, let alone the big brothe and his war. They are standing ready.
Ronnie B
1 year ago
I think it far more likely that Lukashenko’s incapacitation or death may spark first a disputed handover and then renewed attempts by opposition leaders to establish themselves in country. Lukashenko has kept Belarus out of the Ukraine war as he knows his people do not support it. If Putin attempts to force the issue in Belarus with Lukashenko’s demise, he may find he has a second war, sorry I mean special operation, on his hands … and no increase in military capacity.
N T
1 year ago
Are you discounting the possibility that he was poisoned by a party that would benefit from his incapacitation?
I think that should factor into this calculus. A lot of people who seem to have been less important to Putin’s ambition have taken headers off of balconies, or died by other means.
N T
1 year ago
Are you discounting the possibility that he was poisoned by a party that would benefit from his incapacitation?
I think that should factor into this calculus. A lot of people who seem to have been less important to Putin’s ambition have taken headers off of balconies, or died by other means.
j watson
1 year ago
Putin’s ability to exert influence with other near neighbours – Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc seems more limited now. The latter did a deal for Gas supplies with EU states only a fortnight ago. Difficult to see how that helps Putin and thus question – would Russia allow that if it had the strength to stop it?
Putin may also fear he’s sitting on a tinderbox and needs to tread carefully in Belarus.
j watson
1 year ago
Putin’s ability to exert influence with other near neighbours – Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc seems more limited now. The latter did a deal for Gas supplies with EU states only a fortnight ago. Difficult to see how that helps Putin and thus question – would Russia allow that if it had the strength to stop it?
Putin may also fear he’s sitting on a tinderbox and needs to tread carefully in Belarus.
Elena R.
1 year ago
The “Kremlin’s strategy of recruiting far from Moscow and St Petersburg” would not work for Belarus. I would argue that the Belorussian youth are more pro-Western and anti-war than Russian elites. In fact, they are on the opposite end of the scale to the impoverished and partially brain-washed Russian youth from places like Tuva or Buryatia
If a massive draft or mobilisation were to be declared in Belarus, there is little doubt as to how the conscripts, i.e. those who will not have left the country within hours, will act on the battlefield.
Elena R.
1 year ago
The “Kremlin’s strategy of recruiting far from Moscow and St Petersburg” would not work for Belarus. I would argue that the Belorussian youth are more pro-Western and anti-war than Russian elites. In fact, they are on the opposite end of the scale to the impoverished and partially brain-washed Russian youth from places like Tuva or Buryatia
If a massive draft or mobilisation were to be declared in Belarus, there is little doubt as to how the conscripts, i.e. those who will not have left the country within hours, will act on the battlefield.
rick stubbs
1 year ago
One wonders what the Exodus might be like when Russians try to mobilize conscript troops in Belarus? One thinks Poland and Lithuania intelligence is working over time on the resistance infrastructure.
rick stubbs
1 year ago
One wonders what the Exodus might be like when Russians try to mobilize conscript troops in Belarus? One thinks Poland and Lithuania intelligence is working over time on the resistance infrastructure.
Does Russia have the resources to annex Belarus? From a practical standpoint, this would seem to be a challenging task in peacetime, let alone when Russia’s military and other resources are severely stretched in Ukraine. From a Belarussian perspective, might this be a relatively beneficial time for a leadership change, when Russia is overcommitted in Ukraine and less able to interfere in Belarusian politics?
Does Russia have the resources to annex Belarus? From a practical standpoint, this would seem to be a challenging task in peacetime, let alone when Russia’s military and other resources are severely stretched in Ukraine. From a Belarussian perspective, might this be a relatively beneficial time for a leadership change, when Russia is overcommitted in Ukraine and less able to interfere in Belarusian politics?
I think it far more likely that Lukashenko’s incapacitation or death may spark first a disputed handover and then renewed attempts by opposition leaders to establish themselves in country. Lukashenko has kept Belarus out of the Ukraine war as he knows his people do not support it. If Putin attempts to force the issue in Belarus with Lukashenko’s demise, he may find he has a second war, sorry I mean special operation, on his hands … and no increase in military capacity.
It is clear that those who were in the streets in the 2020 have not since settled with their domestic dictator, let alone the big brothe and his war. They are standing ready.
It is clear that those who were in the streets in the 2020 have not since settled with their domestic dictator, let alone the big brothe and his war. They are standing ready.
I think it far more likely that Lukashenko’s incapacitation or death may spark first a disputed handover and then renewed attempts by opposition leaders to establish themselves in country. Lukashenko has kept Belarus out of the Ukraine war as he knows his people do not support it. If Putin attempts to force the issue in Belarus with Lukashenko’s demise, he may find he has a second war, sorry I mean special operation, on his hands … and no increase in military capacity.
Are you discounting the possibility that he was poisoned by a party that would benefit from his incapacitation?
I think that should factor into this calculus. A lot of people who seem to have been less important to Putin’s ambition have taken headers off of balconies, or died by other means.
Are you discounting the possibility that he was poisoned by a party that would benefit from his incapacitation?
I think that should factor into this calculus. A lot of people who seem to have been less important to Putin’s ambition have taken headers off of balconies, or died by other means.
Putin’s ability to exert influence with other near neighbours – Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc seems more limited now. The latter did a deal for Gas supplies with EU states only a fortnight ago. Difficult to see how that helps Putin and thus question – would Russia allow that if it had the strength to stop it?
Putin may also fear he’s sitting on a tinderbox and needs to tread carefully in Belarus.
Putin’s ability to exert influence with other near neighbours – Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan etc seems more limited now. The latter did a deal for Gas supplies with EU states only a fortnight ago. Difficult to see how that helps Putin and thus question – would Russia allow that if it had the strength to stop it?
Putin may also fear he’s sitting on a tinderbox and needs to tread carefully in Belarus.
The “Kremlin’s strategy of recruiting far from Moscow and St Petersburg” would not work for Belarus. I would argue that the Belorussian youth are more pro-Western and anti-war than Russian elites. In fact, they are on the opposite end of the scale to the impoverished and partially brain-washed Russian youth from places like Tuva or Buryatia
If a massive draft or mobilisation were to be declared in Belarus, there is little doubt as to how the conscripts, i.e. those who will not have left the country within hours, will act on the battlefield.
The “Kremlin’s strategy of recruiting far from Moscow and St Petersburg” would not work for Belarus. I would argue that the Belorussian youth are more pro-Western and anti-war than Russian elites. In fact, they are on the opposite end of the scale to the impoverished and partially brain-washed Russian youth from places like Tuva or Buryatia
If a massive draft or mobilisation were to be declared in Belarus, there is little doubt as to how the conscripts, i.e. those who will not have left the country within hours, will act on the battlefield.
One wonders what the Exodus might be like when Russians try to mobilize conscript troops in Belarus? One thinks Poland and Lithuania intelligence is working over time on the resistance infrastructure.
One wonders what the Exodus might be like when Russians try to mobilize conscript troops in Belarus? One thinks Poland and Lithuania intelligence is working over time on the resistance infrastructure.