This is about the 4th time in the last 2 years that we have heard that the British economy is probably in recession but the numbers haven’t caught up yet. Meanwhile while we have had 0.3%, 0.2% and 0% quarterly growth this year, Germany, Ireland, The Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Austria, Finland and the Eurozone as a whole posted a negative Q3 and many have had two (non-consecutive) negative quarters.
Things are further complicated by the fact that the ONS keeps making retrospective changes to the GDP figures (and employment figures and population figures).
The best way to check if the economy is in recession is to ignore the stats and have a walk around your town or village at night and see how many people are in the pubs and restaurants. So far they still seem pretty busy to me.
In many places in the country the pubs and restaurants are boarded up. You live in an affluent area which will be alright no matter what. Especially if like mine many of its consumers have their spending power triple-locked.
John Riordan
6 months ago
I agree with the main point – that there’s no victory here for this hopeless Tory government, which is little more than a piece of driftwood on the ocean of world events at this stage.
However, ever since the ERM debacle 30 years ago, I’ve always thought that the technique of controlling inflation through interest rate hikes is a failure in itself. Inflation is a failure of bad monetary policy, and interest rate hikes are themselves monetary policy. So it’s destructive monetary policy to solve the problems of previous bad monetary policy. It works by two principle mechanisms: firstly that a higher return on cash makes the currency worth more on global markets, thus contributing to a deflationary effect, and secondly it sucks demand out of the consumer economy by making everyone’s debts harder to service – principally mortgage payments.
In what mad world does anyone consider torturing the consumer economy to suppress demand a justifiable means of controlling inflation? It’s just another way of making us all poorer so we can’t buy and invest as much. And the justification for this is that if the Bank of England doesn’t do it, inflation will make us all poorer. It’s the same as prescribing leeches for a headache or anything else that medieval doctors didn’t understand.
And while it may appear presumptuous of someone like me to tell the great and good of the Bank of England that they don’t know what they’re doing, I and thousands of other laymen said at the time the government printed £400billion during the pandemic and used it to pay millions of people to sit at home doing nothing that this was economic lunacy, but apparently the Bank’s experts couldn’t see a problem. So boo to them, as far as I’m concerned.
Last edited 6 months ago by John Riordan
Susan Grabston
6 months ago
So they’re celebrating that prices are still going up, but just not so fast. And all that built on a manipulated CPI, understating the base number. Certainly no victory.
David McKee
6 months ago
I expect the strategists know exactly what Philip knows. It’s the Micawberism in the politicians which persuades them to hang on. Good news is just around the corner. It has to be…
Those of us who were involved in politics in the runup to 1997 are getting a terrible sense of deja vu.
David Lindsay
6 months ago
We just know that we are not 21.17 per cent better off than we were in October 2021. Last month’s Retail Price Index rate of inflation was 6.1 per cent. In October 2022, that rate was 14.2 per cent. Can you feel the difference? An item costing £100 in October 2021, cost £114.20 in October 2022, and cost £121.17 in October 2023. While it is good to have this confirmed, we all knew it, anyway. But oh, for a Minister for Common Sense, since no party understands any of this.
Ken Bowman
6 months ago
“Rishi Sunak doesn’t realise a recession is on the horizon”.By what possible means does the author know that?
Warren Trees
6 months ago
It’s pretty much the same in the U.S. The bottom line is that no one really knew what would happen after the hangover was felt from creating and pumping trillions of dollars and pounds into the economy while people were sitting at home during the plandemic. We might be simply returning to the norm, but that is too boring of a narrative.
j watson
6 months ago
So the Author’s suggestion – ‘throw the Labour party a hospital pass and hide’. A political strategist seeking a Central Office commission?
This is about the 4th time in the last 2 years that we have heard that the British economy is probably in recession but the numbers haven’t caught up yet. Meanwhile while we have had 0.3%, 0.2% and 0% quarterly growth this year, Germany, Ireland, The Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Austria, Finland and the Eurozone as a whole posted a negative Q3 and many have had two (non-consecutive) negative quarters.
Things are further complicated by the fact that the ONS keeps making retrospective changes to the GDP figures (and employment figures and population figures).
The best way to check if the economy is in recession is to ignore the stats and have a walk around your town or village at night and see how many people are in the pubs and restaurants. So far they still seem pretty busy to me.
Everybody really needs a drink right now, and who could blame them?
In many places in the country the pubs and restaurants are boarded up. You live in an affluent area which will be alright no matter what. Especially if like mine many of its consumers have their spending power triple-locked.
I agree with the main point – that there’s no victory here for this hopeless Tory government, which is little more than a piece of driftwood on the ocean of world events at this stage.
However, ever since the ERM debacle 30 years ago, I’ve always thought that the technique of controlling inflation through interest rate hikes is a failure in itself. Inflation is a failure of bad monetary policy, and interest rate hikes are themselves monetary policy. So it’s destructive monetary policy to solve the problems of previous bad monetary policy. It works by two principle mechanisms: firstly that a higher return on cash makes the currency worth more on global markets, thus contributing to a deflationary effect, and secondly it sucks demand out of the consumer economy by making everyone’s debts harder to service – principally mortgage payments.
In what mad world does anyone consider torturing the consumer economy to suppress demand a justifiable means of controlling inflation? It’s just another way of making us all poorer so we can’t buy and invest as much. And the justification for this is that if the Bank of England doesn’t do it, inflation will make us all poorer. It’s the same as prescribing leeches for a headache or anything else that medieval doctors didn’t understand.
And while it may appear presumptuous of someone like me to tell the great and good of the Bank of England that they don’t know what they’re doing, I and thousands of other laymen said at the time the government printed £400billion during the pandemic and used it to pay millions of people to sit at home doing nothing that this was economic lunacy, but apparently the Bank’s experts couldn’t see a problem. So boo to them, as far as I’m concerned.
So they’re celebrating that prices are still going up, but just not so fast. And all that built on a manipulated CPI, understating the base number. Certainly no victory.
I expect the strategists know exactly what Philip knows. It’s the Micawberism in the politicians which persuades them to hang on. Good news is just around the corner. It has to be…
Those of us who were involved in politics in the runup to 1997 are getting a terrible sense of deja vu.
We just know that we are not 21.17 per cent better off than we were in October 2021. Last month’s Retail Price Index rate of inflation was 6.1 per cent. In October 2022, that rate was 14.2 per cent. Can you feel the difference? An item costing £100 in October 2021, cost £114.20 in October 2022, and cost £121.17 in October 2023. While it is good to have this confirmed, we all knew it, anyway. But oh, for a Minister for Common Sense, since no party understands any of this.
“Rishi Sunak doesn’t realise a recession is on the horizon”.By what possible means does the author know that?
It’s pretty much the same in the U.S. The bottom line is that no one really knew what would happen after the hangover was felt from creating and pumping trillions of dollars and pounds into the economy while people were sitting at home during the plandemic. We might be simply returning to the norm, but that is too boring of a narrative.
So the Author’s suggestion – ‘throw the Labour party a hospital pass and hide’. A political strategist seeking a Central Office commission?