January 5, 2025 - 5:30pm

Even his most enthusiastic supporters can hardly deny the charge that Elon Musk tends to take a “tweet first, ask questions later” approach to big questions. After a frantic few days on X, during which he has done sterling work to amplify appalling revelations about the Pakistani rape gangs scandal, on Sunday he stated that Nigel Farage “doesn’t have what it takes” to lead Reform because Farage has distanced himself from Tommy Robinson.

What a change from just a few weeks back, when there was talk of Musk giving Reform a huge donation. Among some US conservatives, Robinson is often misunderstood as an intrepid campaigner ruthlessly persecuted by the authoritarian British state. In fact, Robinson is a criminal and a grifter, winking at thuggery, who contributes very little to serious Right-wing politics in Britain. He makes a good deal of money from his travelling circus of provocation and confrontation, and achieves almost nothing of any value. That he has sometimes been more harshly treated by the authorities than a completely non-political figure would be, does not change this truth.

Farage undoubtedly has his faults and weaknesses. But he is surely correct that at such a potentially important inflection point for British politics, there is very little point in embroiling himself with a man like Robinson.

Reform is at 22% in the polls, only three percentage points behind the Tories and five behind Labour. No other party has significantly improved on their score in July’s general election; Reform has added eight points in just six months. It is not at all inconceivable that they will be leading the polls this time next year. One recent projection suggested that with the party’s current vote share it would gain over 100 seats at a general election.

The Tories are still floundering, and struggling to honestly confront the reasons for their disastrous defeat. They are themselves implicated in the ongoing breakdown of the British state’s legitimacy, given their failures across the board, from energy policy to immigration.

Reform under Farage is therefore extremely well-placed to benefit from growing dissatisfaction with the status quo, especially given the impressive performance of their MPs and its growing membership. However, the party still has a mountain to climb in terms of establishing a widespread public image as an effective and civilised party. That 22% figure is impressive, but to become a serious player in the next Parliament, Reform needs to sustainably add five or 10 points to that total. It needs to take votes from ex-Tory moderates in the South as well as disaffected ex-Labour voters in the North. Many of these people will, for various reasons, be repulsed by Tommy Robinson.

Farage’s determination to draw a clear red line between himself and Robinson can certainly do very little harm in his ongoing mission to create a positive image for the party. It may complicate relations with some of his American cheerleaders, but in concrete terms that may not matter very much, especially given the money now flowing in from Reform’s growing membership. What really matters is Reform’s ability to exploit the ongoing crisis of legitimacy in British politics.

On the whole, then, what looks like a blow to Farage’s prestige may well turn out to be nothing of the sort. It’s possible, indeed, that it will be a net benefit, as he and his backers can point to the criticism from the world’s richest man as a proof that he is not beholden to anyone, and can chart his own course. Where that course will take Reform, and the country, remains to be seen.


Niall Gooch is a public sector worker and occasional writer who lives in Kent.

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