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September 29, 2024 - 7:30pm
In Austria, it has become almost natural law since the first post-war elections that either the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) or the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) win the federal elections. With a few exceptions, these parties tend to form coalition governments, making Austria a de facto two-party state that is either governed slightly centre-right or slightly centre-left.
But tonight, this law came to an end: the hard-Right Freedom Party (FPÖ) made history, coming in first with over 29% of the vote, followed by the ÖVP with 26%, while the Social Democrats continued their slow descent into irrelevance with 21%.
Since it is unlikely that anyone will enter into a shared government with the FPÖ, it looks like the Conservatives and the Socialists will either be joined by the Greens or the Liberals — both of which remained below 10% in the election — creating another first in Austrian history: a coalition government of more than two parties. The FPÖ finds itself in a similar situation to the AfD in Germany, where despite growing popularity with voters, the likelihood of being in government is getting ever smaller.
The other parties accuse the FPÖ of pandering to conspiracy theories and being too soft on Vladimir Putin — an accusation that is not entirely without merit. The party has, for example, suggested fixing holes in the budget by cancelling support for Ukraine. But even so, it is not clear whether this position hurt them with the voters.
Overall, the FPÖ’s success can best be explained by three factors. The first is migration. As an unapologetically nationalist party that does not shy away from discussing “remigration”, the party always had a strong base among those who prefer closed borders. Secondly, the Covid policies of the Conservative-Green coalition that has run the government since 2019 were some of the strictest measures in Europe. In response, the FPÖ, under its leader, Herbert Kickl, quickly seized the opportunity to become the most vocal critic of these policies. Although for many people, Covid is a faint memory, some of the most vocal opponents of the pandemic policies likely became staunch supporters of the FPÖ. And finally, voter mobilisation: with almost 80% voter turnout, it seems plausible that previous non-voters also switched to the FPÖ.
It remains to be seen whether excluding the strongest party in parliament from governing will weaken the FPÖ, but one thing is clear: there is growing frustration with the status quo across the country. Indeed, six out of 10 Austrians feel dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Freezing the FPÖ out of office could drive this number up.
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SubscribeThe Hard right = anyone with a sane immigration policy
So-called hard right populist parties are on the rise everywhere in western democracies. Maybe – just maybe – these clowns in the political and technocratic class should ask themselves why this is happening. And it ain’t just immigration.
Why is the obvious move not the OVP agreeing to support the FPO in exchange for continuing support for Ukraine/NATO. OVP could agree to support FPO on migration and remigration. I can’t believe the OVP’s voters want more Muslim immigrants.
How is cancelling “support” for Ukraine being “soft on Putin” – “support” for Ukraine in reality is not support for Ukraine, but for the continuation of a hopeless proxy war where Ukraine and Ukrainians are being sacrificed for unattainable US war aims.
At this point, Russia has not yet achieved its war aims, i.e. control of the entirety of the four oblasts it accepted into the Russian Federation in September 2022. The most difficult dilemma for Russia right now would be a genuine push for negotiations, where Russia would be pressured by its BRICS friends to show good will, and so become entrapped in settling for the line of control. With Ukraine continuing to be intransigent, with European and US support for that intransigence, Russia is under no pressure and can continue its war.
The concept of remigration has support across a much broader section of the population than those who vote for the far right. Politicians from other parties just use other words because “remigration” got a bad rep after the Potsdam meeting, the hysteria around which was trumped up.
Olaf Scholz has been quoted as saying that Germany needs to “start deporting people in a big way/deporting large numbers of people” (“Abschiebungen im großen Stil”). Why the notion of large numbers of people being deported can’t be fairly described as remigration is unclear to me. As long as the word is limited to the removal of people who have/no longer have no right to be in the country, it is appropriate for general use in the context of a problem which a large part of the public rightly want solved.