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August 23, 2024 - 5:00pm
To a German, the UK’s new Labour government feels eerily familiar. Listening to the musings of Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband is strongly reminiscent of how Germany’s Greens have been speaking about the Energiewende (energy transition) for the last 14 years. Although Miliband — in post for less than two months — can hardly be blamed for British industrial electricity costs remaining the highest in Europe and this autumn’s energy price cap hike, he can be blamed for his misguided faith in renewables to bring down those costs.
The German story is illustrative, and Labour should heed its lessons. There, investment in renewables has so far failed to bring down prices and is a major cause of the country’s deindustrialisation. The German government banned fracking in 2017, deepening its dependency on Russian energy and plunging many citizens into energy insecurity.
Yet even this seems to be less of a warning and more of an instruction manual for Miliband, who upon entering office almost immediately banned all new drilling in the North Sea, overruling previous decisions by his own officials. Keir Starmer’s government believes that fossil fuels will no longer be needed, because the “rooftop revolution” will satisfy Britain’s energy needs.
This policy is in fact even more suicidal than what the Germans have tried to do. The solar power potential in the UK is less than it is in Germany, given the former’s smaller land mass and cloudier weather. On average, the capacity factor of solar farms in the UK is around 10%, meaning the actual electricity production is about one-tenth of the full capacity (what could be generated under ideal conditions, i.e. no nights and no clouds — ever). By comparison, a well-maintained nuclear power plant can operate at over 90% of its full capacity, almost entirely independent of weather conditions.
The expected gaps from solar will supposedly be filled by wind turbines, using strong winds in the North of England. The problem, however, is that much of the country’s industry is located in the South, so Miliband’s electricity abundance will be where nobody needs it, unless the Government builds expensive and extensive long-distance transmission lines, which in turn pushes up costs. It is ludicrous to think that industry and people would move north, closer to cheaper energy. Instead, they will simply leave the country altogether. As Make UK, one of the most important domestic industry lobby groups, said of Miliband’s Net Zero plan: “Steel or other energy-intensive industries would have no realistic option to relocate their very heavy assets to more favourable pricing zones and would instead be forced to shut down. Moreover, encouraging a factory to move makes it open to moving out of the UK entirely, as it will reconsider all its options for the best location.”
Just like in Germany, if you force your steel or aluminium industries to move, they will not go to the place with the cheapest wind or solar energy, but instead to wherever energy is cheapest in total. That realistically means somewhere close to the natural gas fields in the US, coal power in China or — a competitor few seem to have on the radar — Saudi Arabia. The Gulf state not only has fossil fuels in abundance, but is also better positioned for solar power.
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SubscribeI continue to be gobsmscked that some people – people in actual positions of power – think wind and solar are legitimate sources of energy. Anyone with functional math and reading comprehension skills can see through these unicorns immediately. After 25 years and trillions in investment, there is not a single energy grid anywhere in the world run by wind and solar.
Apart from China.
According to the IEA, renewables made up 23% of Chinese electricity generation in 2021. Coal made up 63%.
Yet even this is deceiving. The vast majority of China’s renewable power is hydro. It makes up 18% of China’s energy mix. Wind and solar make up 5%.
23% is very significant, seems they have come a long way.
Wind and solar are not 23%. Not even close.
Is that why the Guardian reported that China led the world in the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the first half of 2024?
China bought 52 million tonnes of Australian coal in 2023. They must be doing something with it.
They are fanatics. You might as well ask why Mao launched the Great Leap Forward.
In reality the windiest part of the UK is the north of Scotland, not the north of England. The time and cost required to build out transmission lines from there to the big population and industrial centres in the south are enormous. Renewable energy projects are so capital intensive, and have such low load factors relative to nuclear or fossil fuel powered plants, that they require high guaranteed and inflation proof electricity prices for 35 -40 years to payback their investors with an adequate return. But hey, it’s not as if the UK is debt laden, expensive and economically sluggish already, so no doubt it can afford all this.
There are very large power losses in transmission lines because transmission generates heat. So birds can warm their feet in the winter. The longer the line, the bigger the losses. For hundreds of miles you are talking about 10-15%. There is no way to avoid this, except perhaps by using DC current. But with DC you need a return – so two lines instead of one. Basic physics.
The only way to provide cheap, CO2 free (if that’s your thing), plentiful, reliable electrical power is with nuclear, supplemented by CCGT plants to manage the demand peaks, and in the demand troughs the plants can switch to producing hydrogen. This has been obvious for decades, and the waste concerns (the usual chimera with nuclear) are easily manageable. However, generation after generation of the political classes have been blind to the blindingly obvious which means that in a few years 7 of our 8 nukes will have reached end of life and we will have brown-outs and black-outs (in winter of course when renewables are largely useless). Hurray.
Renewables should be part of the UK’s energy solution, the main provider of which must be nuclear. This is the only way that the crucial net zero targets will be met. There was never any intention to reduce bills in this process however, in fact people reduce energy consumption when the cost is higher.
The net zero targets are not crucial. We can reach them, or not and it will make no difference.
I must say that this whole enterprise is reminiscent of the construction of the Egyptian pyramids.
According to the search engine :-
‘The National Grid emphasizes the need to build five times more electricity transmission infrastructure over the next six years than has been constructed in the past three decades. This is crucial to connect new renewable energy projects to the grid quickly, which is essential for achieving net zero and reducing energy bills’
What are the odds on that happening?
What happens at nighttime on a still evening with no wind?
‘Global energy storage developer Eku Energy has broken ground at two new UK battery storage projects in Basildon, Essex and Loudwater, Buckinghamshire, together representing 130 MWh of installed capacity…. operational by the end of 2024. ‘
130MWh would keep Britain powered for approximately 40 seconds.
What a chilling quote from Ed. Not wearing a seatbelt is illegal. Seatbelt use only became common when it was made illegal. Wind energy isn’t saving any lives like seatbelts.
Given how tiresome Ed finds criticism, and how elevated he thinks his ideas are, I can see why Ed might want to criminalise opposition to his ideas. I’d wager there are a fair few police and judges that would happily oblige the prosecution for him.
Every day the ideologues march further. Every day the dysfunction gets worse, services get poorer, costs increase. You think rationality will one day restore order. Then you remember that Ed grew up at the knee of man who marvelled at East Germany even as the contradictions and shortages required ever greater repression of ever more citizens for the greater good.
East Germany lasted 45 years and only collapsed when the ideologues had tested their ideas to absolute destruction. The destruction of the country and its society leaving scars we can still see in demographics, economics, (ill) health, and (un) happiness. Behind Ed stand many more fellow travellers. His ideologues have only just begun.
Criminalising disagreement with government plans is a good idea. We could call all such crimes, “political crimes’ and build special prisons for political prisoners. Or perhaps we could send them to work camps on Orkney, or another remote island.
Giant concentration camp in Kent? Buchenweald?
Cracks me up, every time. A handful of comments here except mine – seems there are some Unherd readers that are so weak minded they have to use the moderation system to avoid debate. You are so sad.
Not sure what you’re getting at here. Are your comments being censored? If so, not cool. I am willing to debate this subject all day long.
It will, it wiil. You just have to believe, and no that doesn’t make me a climate change denier.
These people are maniacs. We should be exploiting the North Sea and the Morecambe Bay gas fields. Even if it does run out in a generation or 2, we should be using the abundant energy and economic prosperity to work on genuine successor industries.
It’s obvious isn’t it?
I, like you, are genuinely aghast at the stupidity of our politicians.
So what about nuclear waste and a messed up geology and water from fracking.
I accept wind and solar won’t cut it, it can be part of the mix. But we don’t have vast areas of not many people to screw up the ground water with fracking chemicals and nuclear waste.
You’re all talking up the cons of renewable and benefits of frack/nuclear,can someone who knows about this stuff put my mind at ease?
Nuclear waste is easily solvable, it’s the Govt’s lack of will which has been kicking the can down the road wanting to spend scarce funds on vanity projects rather than nitty gritty important stuff.
As for fracking, words fail me. As the Royal Society / Royal Academy of Engineering June 2012 report by Prof Robert Mair made clear, fracking can be done safely and cleanly under the UK’s tight regulatory environment. Rather than the geological / groundwater issues, the major challenge will be in gaining planning permission for the necessary work, as we see now with wind farms, solar farms and transmission lines.
However, it’ll be a different story when the lights start going out and we end up in a situation in which the South Africans are having to endure, for different reasons.
Ed Davey recently admitted that as energy secretary in the coalition he looked shut down fracking in the UK on his own dislike for it on ideological grounds by creating a regulatory framework that was impossible for the fracking companies to comply with. He stated he took great pleasure in destroying this nascent industry.
“lthough Miliband — in post for less than two months — can hardly be blamed for British industrial electricity costs div > p > a”>remaining the highest in Europe and this autumn’s div > p > a:nth-of-type(2)”>energy price cap hike”
Stop right there !
If there’s one person who’s done more than anyone else to raise the price of electricity in the UK it’s Ed Miliband with the 2008 Climate Change Act. It’s been downhill ever since.
Corrected headline: “Ed Miliband’s Net Zero Drive Will Drive Up Energy Bills”. Carve it on a tombstone.
Or carve it on his EdStone?
Tedious little eco sandaloid non-entity: this zero carbon stuff is a neo religion substitute, driver by interweb Pied Pipers: as far as I am concerned our air is just perfect. How I love seeing the toyliTesla drivers stuck without charge, after rain or heat when their ” range” has lasted less time that one of their driver’s efforts to gain entry to White’s or The Jockey Club….
How often has sibling rivalry caused so many problem in British politics? Ed Miliband’s usurpation of his far more talented brother fundamentally damaged the Labour party and left us with a second-rater in a position of influence he did not – and still does not – deserve.
China is not at war forever…that is why they can diversify their energy! Just saying…
They have been seeking world domination through any means for a long time. We have been at war with China for many decades but our politicians are too stupid and complacent to recognise it.
China is on a war footing now. Noticed the buildup of armaments at all? Their navy etc?