In the 2022 Assembly election, unionist candidates won 24,506 votes in East Belfast, over 10,000 more than Alliance. Notwithstanding Alliance gains elsewhere, in strongly unionist constituencies like East Belfast voters have noticed that Alliance is no longer a moderate pro-Union party, but is now essentially a more energetic version of the SDLP.
You seem to overlook that there were another 4,700 odd votes in the Assembly election in East Belfast cast for non-Unionist, non-Alliance candidates. Most will vote tactically for Alliance in a Westminster election. Andy Allen polled 5,200 votes for the UUP. Some will vote tactically for the DUP, but others will never go in that direction in any circumstances, and a few will even go to Alliance to stop the DUP. The constituency is also taking a chunk of South Belfast, about 10% of its new electorate – some bits good for the DUP, but somewhat better for Alliance, and also adding about another 2,500 SDLP voters to squeeze. Gavin Robinson is a competent and hard-working operator and I doubt he’s as complacent about this as you are. By the way – I was the election agent the only time Alliance actually won East Belfast in a Westminster election, so I do know what I’m talking about.
But the DUP is also vulnerable in Lagan Valley (to Alliance), South Antrim (to the UUP), and Upper Bann (to SF). Possibly also – although I don’t quite see it myself – in Strangford to Alliance and even, if SF get their act together there, in East L/Derry. Only North Antrim is genuinely bombproof this time. I think it’s unlikely they’ll be reduced that far, but only 3-4 DUP MPs remaining is quite realistic.
In the 2022 Assembly election, unionist candidates won 24,506 votes in East Belfast, over 10,000 more than Alliance. Notwithstanding Alliance gains elsewhere, in strongly unionist constituencies like East Belfast voters have noticed that Alliance is no longer a moderate pro-Union party, but is now essentially a more energetic version of the SDLP.
You seem to overlook that there were another 4,700 odd votes in the Assembly election in East Belfast cast for non-Unionist, non-Alliance candidates. Most will vote tactically for Alliance in a Westminster election. Andy Allen polled 5,200 votes for the UUP. Some will vote tactically for the DUP, but others will never go in that direction in any circumstances, and a few will even go to Alliance to stop the DUP. The constituency is also taking a chunk of South Belfast, about 10% of its new electorate – some bits good for the DUP, but somewhat better for Alliance, and also adding about another 2,500 SDLP voters to squeeze. Gavin Robinson is a competent and hard-working operator and I doubt he’s as complacent about this as you are. By the way – I was the election agent the only time Alliance actually won East Belfast in a Westminster election, so I do know what I’m talking about.
But the DUP is also vulnerable in Lagan Valley (to Alliance), South Antrim (to the UUP), and Upper Bann (to SF). Possibly also – although I don’t quite see it myself – in Strangford to Alliance and even, if SF get their act together there, in East L/Derry. Only North Antrim is genuinely bombproof this time. I think it’s unlikely they’ll be reduced that far, but only 3-4 DUP MPs remaining is quite realistic.
‘Can you feel the silence?’
Van Morrison