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July 22, 2024 - 1:20pm
When Joe Biden announced yesterday that he was not running for re-election, he knocked over the chessboard of American politics, and now the game is changed for Donald Trump’s third bid for the presidency.
Like many presidential challengers, Trump designed his campaign as a referendum on the incumbent with a blistering focus on inflation, crime, the breakdown on the border, and crises abroad. While both Trump and Biden have high disapproval ratings, the GOP nominee hoped to draw out disengaged voters and the “double haters” who disapproved of both men.
In making this case, Trump had a singular advantage. He had actually been president before, and polls even revealed a kind of “Trump nostalgia”, as voters favourably compared his record on the economy with Biden’s. The contrast between Trump’s considerable vigour and Biden’s moments of verbal confusion only underlined the former man’s message that he was willing to take strong, decisive action to address the frustrations of the electorate. While Trump would barnstorm the country, Biden would spend day after day in his Rehoboth Beach retreat.
In dropping out, Biden upended this strategy. Whoever it ends up being, the next Democratic nominee will almost certainly be many years younger than the President — and Trump. A strategy built on appealing to “double haters” might fizzle out if Trump’s opponent does not have negatives that are as firmly entrenched as Biden’s. Though Trump’s approval rating has climbed somewhat since the end of his presidency, a majority of voters still disapprove of him according to RCP polling averages.
This changed political landscape could provide opportunities as well as risks for Trump’s campaign. The effort against Biden plays into Trump’s populist diagnosis of American politics: after all, the coordinated Democratic and media elite strong-armed a sitting president into ending his reelection bid. Trump’s team has eagerly claimed that Biden’s decision to stand down offers a fundamental vindication of Trump’s critique of his rival’s presidency: that he cannot handle the rigours of the Oval Office.
The asymmetry between the two major American political parties is unprecedented in the living memory of most voters: Republicans have been unified behind a presidential candidate for months, while Democrats need to reorient a political dreadnought — a presidential campaign — in just over 100 days. That structural difference may also work to Republican advantage — though, if your standard-bearer was as unpopular as Biden, political drama might be more appealing than staying the course.
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SubscribeTrump designed his campaign as a referendum on the incumbent with a blistering focus on inflation, crime, the breakdown on the border, and crises abroad ——-> Which he can still do. Kamala was the border czar, after all. It’s not like she isn’t part of the administration or pushing its policies.
Trump has often relied upon the unpopularity of his opponents —- Four years ago, Dem voters rejected Harris soundly. Dems. She’s already unpopular, among her and nationally.
Trump designed his campaign as a referendum on the incumbent with a blistering focus on inflation, crime, the breakdown on the border, and crises abroad ——-> Which he can still do. Kamala was the border czar, after all. It’s not like she isn’t part of the administration or pushing its policies.
Trump has often relied upon the unpopularity of his opponents —- Four years ago, Dem voters rejected Harris soundly. Dems. She’s already unpopular, among her and nationally.
Political turmoil will continue no matter which candidate they vote for. The polarisation of everyday life is making the US ungovernable.
Dems rejected Harris at a time of George Floyd, BBM etc when her strong record on prosecuting crime not an advantage in an internal race – she wasn’t deemed Left enough. Things are different now and that prosecutorial record actually a strong advantage.
Much will depend how she comes across in public next week or so. Has to show something new, something clear and persuasive quickly. If she does then Trump may well be pining for Sleepy Joe.
It’s quaint how people spend time and energy writing these pieces under the presumption that the USSA united socialist states of amerika has free and fair elections.
I read them mostly because I’ve always enjoyed fiction.
All Trump has to do is show that clip of Kamala Harris talking about how the BLM protests are ‘a movement’ and “that they’re not going to let up. And they should not, and we should not.” Intersperse this with clips of the ‘mostly peaceful protests’ and he’s onto a winner.
I think they’ll have that one ready to go. Just waiting until they can see the whites of their eyes.