After covering the campaign closely, McTague came to a conclusion with eerie parallels for the American Right. “Over the past six weeks, I have travelled across the country speaking to ministers, candidates, party insiders and the campaign generals on both sides to understand what was happening and why, peering deep inside the bellies of both party machines,” he wrote. “During this time, I saw a contrast of startling intensity: between one party ruthlessly committed to victory and another which had long ago lost the discipline necessary to govern and therefore even to command the respect of the country.”

The realignment that swept disaffected Rust Belt Obama-voters into Trump’s movement leaves Republicans with a predicament. Many argue that despite his style and rhetoric, Trump’s policy positions aren’t all that radical. Why, for instance, does he want to hand out green cards to foreign students? Or fund the war in Ukraine? That’s not to mention unconditionally cutting the taxes of corporations who are increasingly enemies of the Republican base and watering down the party’s traditional stance on abortion.

For Right-of-centre voters seeking an alternative, Kennedy is ideologically unpredictable. On Covid and the pharmaceutical industry, however, he’s exploited Trump’s weaknesses with a certain group of disillusioned sceptics. His critique of foreign policy and censorship is deep and detailed. In the hands of a charismatic outsider with a more conservative background, aspects of RFK Jr.’s platform could be powerful, especially when the dust is settled on Trump’s legal battles.

What’s clear from the Tory bloodbath is that centrist risk aversion illustrated by the likes of Rishi Sunak gradually breeds resentment and creates untenable political math. While it’s often an expression of decadent elitism, the strategy also happens to be a self-defeating anyway. As John Curtice explained for the BBC on Friday, “All in all this looks more like an election the Conservatives lost than one Labour won.”

Many Republicans are already looking for new options, as RFK Jr.’s modest gains show. Those become especially dangerous for the GOP when considering the trajectory of European politics. The parallels here aren’t perfect, but already the lesson of RFK Jr.’s campaign shows why a charismatic American Farage — or an army of them — could do big damage to Republicans on the top of future tickets and all the way down — if they botch the moment by returning to their centrist ways.

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Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington D.C. Correspondent.

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