Ukraine faces decisive months ahead as key allies gear up for crunch elections. While early presidential campaigning in the US and a looming general election in Poland will grab the international headlines, a snap election in Slovakia on 30 September may prove every bit as consequential. 

With Robert Fico — Slovakia’s former prime minister and one of the West’s most outspoken critics of the Ukrainian war effort — poised to win the vote, a change of government in Bratislava could have a profound effect on EU policymaking. Fico has promised that if his party makes it into government “we will not send a single bullet to Ukraine,” proudly proclaiming that “I allow myself to have a different opinion to that of the United States” on the war.  

Fico has also claimed on the campaign trail that “war always comes from the West and peace from the East,” and that “what is happening today is unnecessary killing, it is the emptying of warehouses to force countries to buy more American weapons.” Such statements have resulted in him being blacklisted by Kyiv as a spreader of Russian propaganda.  

Yet the former prime minister spearheads a new brand of Left-wing, anti-American populism that has become a powerful force in Central Europe since the war began. Perceptions that “the Americans occupy us” — as one MP in Fico’s Smer party evocatively put it — are shared with a similar groundswell of anti-Western opinion in the neighbouring Czech Republic.  

Yet Smer has been handed a chance to gain power thanks to the chaos which has engulfed Slovakia’s pro-EU, pro-Western forces. Personal grievances coupled with serious policy errors tore apart a four-party coalition formed after elections in 2020, leaving Fico to capitalise on heightened mistrust in establishment politics. Smer is expected to become the nation’s largest party after this month’s election, with an anticipated 20% of the vote.  

Whatever the specific makeup of the new government, if Smer is the largest party it will likely pursue a foreign policy similar to that of Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. A halt to until-now generous Slovak arms shipments to Ukraine is Fico’s central electoral pledge, while the arrival on the scene of another Orbán-style government prepared to obstruct EU aid efforts for Ukraine would create a serious headache. That is particularly the case as Brussels struggles to win support for both short and long-term war funding commitments. 

Victory for Fico would also amplify Orbán’s scepticism about the overall Western narrative on Ukraine — a scepticism which the Hungarian Prime Minister recently conveyed to Western conservatives during an interview with Tucker Carlson. Orbán portrayed Ukraine’s attempts to win back the territories taken by Russia as ultimately hopeless and claimed that Donald Trump’s promise to end the war quickly makes him “the man who can save the Western world”. 

Like Trump in America and Orbán in Europe, Fico is hated with a passion by establishment forces. But in Slovakia, the pro-Western establishment itself has become so mistrusted that power may soon pass to a man intent on shattering what’s left of European unity on Ukraine. 

Throughout the latter half of the summer, the Democrats’ long-simmering debates about the future direction of their party have come to a boil. Though some are desperate to leave these debates aside and shift the focus to the November midterms, these are fights the party would be wise to have sooner rather than later — especially over just how big their “tent” should be.

One lesson most Democrats drew from the 2024 election was that their tent had shrunk since 2016. They had lost many voters whom they’d long considered reliable parts of their coalition, such as black people, Hispanics, and young men. So, the thinking was that the party needed ways to build a bigger tent and bring more people in.

Democrats initially seemed to understand that the party had gotten too far out of step with the median American voter and believed they needed to moderate to become appealing again. However, as Trump’s second term got underway, many Democrats saw an imperative to shift away from hard debates about the party’s future and focus their energy on fighting the president. And in that fight, they decided that virtually anyone willing to join them should be welcomed into the tent.

As such, many Democrats started to normalize relations with Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and the DSA. The popular podcast Pod Save America, hosted by several Obama administration alumni, hosted Piker multiple times to discuss how to build a new coalition with him. Eventually, DSA candidates began winning primaries, and party leaders welcomed them to the caucus with open arms.

As the DSA and Piker have stepped into the national spotlight, it has become clear that they have not only overstated their ability to help Democrats build a winning coalition, but also hold alarming views that could actively hurt the party. Piker has a long digital trail of controversial statements. Several DSA-aligned candidates who have won their primaries and are likely to join Congress next year have espoused truly radical views. The national DSA itself released its program this summer, which called for abolishing police and prisons, overthrowing capitalism, and scrapping the Constitution.

This poses a big problem for Democrats. Not only does a large majority of Americans continue to view socialism unfavorably, but many of the views promoted by the DSA and its candidates are electoral poison in swing states. Moreover, at a time when politics has become hyper-nationalized, voters are more likely to see the parties as monoliths and less likely to split their tickets. If Republicans can credibly brand the Democrats as a socialist party that has been hijacked by extremists, life becomes harder for candidates trying to win in purple states. It will be even harder if the person at the top of the ticket has doubled down on their commitment to socialism.

Fortunately, not all Democrats have been thrilled with these shifts. A group of more centrist elected officials signed a pledge stating, among other things, “we are capitalist, not socialist.” One center-left think tank announced a $15 million effort to fight the ascendant DSA. Many candidates running in tough races this year have either openly denounced Piker or distanced themselves from him — including some who initially embraced him. It is clear that the Democrats who are closest to the center of the electorate and who care foremost about winning elections are aware of the danger the far-Left poses.

Many progressive Democrats have sensed that their grip on the party is growing. This is true, but the reality is that these new relationships could cost the party dearly. And if Democrats become defined by the far-Left, it could jeopardize their ability to win national elections for years to come.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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