
Avec l’imposition de ses règlements des ‘trois lignes rouges‘ en 2020, Xi Jinping a mis fin à l’épopée immobilière de la Chine. Au cours des deux décennies précédentes, l’immobilier avait joué un rôle énorme dans l’économie chinoise, rivalisant seulement avec les exportations vers l’Occident. Mais Xi a mis un terme à l’immobilier en tant que classe d’actifs.
Pour Xi, la frénésie de construction en Chine avait un seul but : urbaniser la nation. Et maintenant, la Chine en a assez. Depuis 2004, 12,7 milliards de mètres de logements ont été construits en Chine. En 1999, 65 % de la population chinoise était rurale ; lors du recensement de 2020, cette proportion avait chuté à 39 %. Des centaines de millions de personnes ont emménagé dans de nouvelles maisons, parfois dans des villes entièrement nouvelles.
Dans la poursuite de cet objectif mandaté par l’État, d’immenses entreprises de construction privées ont émergé et ont fait fortune, y compris Evergrande et Country Garden. Le PIB de la Chine a grimpé en flèche, non seulement en raison du boom de la construction, mais aussi parce que les nouveaux urbains ont commencé à dépenser de l’argent. Les agriculteurs de subsistance ruraux ne génèrent pratiquement aucun PIB : ils plantent des cultures, les consomment et achètent occasionnellement des engrais. En revanche, les urbains achètent des machines à laver et des téléviseurs, prennent des trains, travaillent dans des entreprises et dînent dans des restaurants. En 2023, le PIB par habitant de Shanghai est de 190 000 RMB (environ 23 800 €) ; la moyenne pour la Chine rurale, selon les statistiques gouvernementales, est d’environ 20 000 RMB (environ 2 500 €). En embrassant la modernité et en transformant les paysans en urbains, la Chine a créé des réserves infinies de PIB.
Maintenant, ce processus est presque complet.
Les colosses de l’immobilier chinois vont en souffrir. Mais aux yeux du gouvernement chinois, ils sont jetables. Ils ont rempli leur rôle. Avant le Troisième Plénum du mois dernier, certains ont spéculé que la Chine relancerait son marché immobilier en inversant les trois lignes rouges et en donnant d’une manière ou d’une autre de l’argent aux investisseurs à partir de l’arbre à argent magique. Pas de chance. Bien que les dirigeants chinois souhaitent continuer le processus d’urbanisation en réformant, par exemple, le système Hukou, ils n’ont aucun intérêt à plaire aux tycoons de l’immobilier et aux investisseurs. Dans un effort pour prévenir une croissance urbaine incontrôlée à la façon de Tokyo ou de Séoul, le gouvernement chinois a conservé le système Hukou — dans lequel les Chinois ont droit à l’éducation ou aux soins médicaux uniquement dans leur ville natale — pendant les années de boom. Alors que l’urbanisation a ralenti, le système est progressivement aboli, avec l’intention d’encourager quelques habitants ruraux supplémentaires à déménager dans les villes.
La Chine prévoit officiellement d’atteindre 75 % d’urbanisation. Il reste donc encore plus de 100 millions de personnes à déplacer. Mais Xi est désireux de conserver cette population rurale : elle préserve la sécurité alimentaire et les traditions de la nation, et s’occupe des espaces sauvages de la Chine. En même temps, l’objectif principal du PCC est de créer les conditions pour un nombre optimal de Chinois en bonne santé, très éduqués et de classe moyenne. Lorsque la population de l’Inde a dépassé celle de la Chine l’année dernière, le ministère chinois des Affaires étrangères a déclaré que la qualité des individus, et non seulement leur quantité, était pertinente. Ce commentaire faisait allusion à l’idée que dans l’économie mondialisée, un ingénieur STEM hautement éduqué vaut 10, voire 100, paysans ; tandis que la population totale de la Chine ne croît pas, la population des urbains de classe moyenne, elle, augmente, et c’est cette population qui est pertinente pour le dernier objectif : transformer la Chine en superpuissance technologique. Et maintenant, ces nouveaux urbains doivent commencer à inventer des semi-conducteurs.
Certains des projets immobiliers qui étaient inachevés ou invendus lorsque Xi a donné le coup d’envoi deviendront des logements abordables conformément au modèle de Singapour. Les valeurs immobilières ont cessé d’augmenter, laissant les familles de la classe moyenne urbaine dont les actifs sont immobilisés dans des maisons — qui représentent 59 % de la richesse des ménages, contre environ 25 % aux États-Unis — se sentir lésées. Mais malgré le coup porté à l’économie chinoise, Xi Jinping continue d’insister sur le fait que les maisons sont faites pour y vivre, pas pour spéculer. Si la classe moyenne chinoise n’aime pas cela, elle peut réserver un vol pour l’Équateur.
Il convient de souligner que ces urbains sont encore riches par rapport à leurs compatriotes : imaginez si le gouvernement faisait magiquement cesser l’augmentation des prix des maisons à Londres. Ils seraient assez impopulaires à Londres, mais pour les exclus, cette politique serait gagnante — surtout si cela signifiait que leurs enfants pouvaient travailler à Londres.
Cela pourrait également affecter la soi-disant génération ‘lying flat’. En ce moment, étant donné que 96 % des résidents urbains chinois possèdent leur maison, les jeunes peuvent se permettre d’être exigeants en matière de travail. Beaucoup d’entre eux choisissent de ne pas le faire. Après tout, ils n’ont pas besoin de payer de loyer. En ce moment, louer une maison est une pratique marginale en Chine ; mais dans les années à venir, cela devrait devenir beaucoup plus répandu. Lorsque les maisons étaient une classe d’actifs, vous n’aviez pas besoin de les louer ; leur valeur doublait rapidement, et être propriétaire est un travail considérable. Mais si les prix des maisons ne sont pas garantis d’augmenter, les actifs doivent travailler pour générer des rendements. Et il en sera de même pour les jeunes.
Lorsque le PCC a d’abord décidé de mettre fin à l’essor immobilier par la réglementation, des craintes se sont répandues que la Chine fasse face à son propre moment Lehman Brothers. Mais pour l’instant, cela ne s’est pas matérialisé. La crise financière de 2008 a engendré une perte de foi à long terme dans le système économique parmi les décideurs chinois et les Américains ordinaires. Tout comme la politique populiste de Donald Trump est sans doute une conséquence du krach financier mondial, il en va de même pour celle de Xi Jinping. Dans des villes comme Shanghai et Guangzhou, les familles de la classe moyenne qui s’attendaient à ce que la valeur de leurs maisons continue d’augmenter pour toujours sont mécontentes. Et nous n’avons pas encore découvert si cette déflation gérée, si différente du choc explosif de 2008, érodera la crédibilité du gouvernement à moyen terme.
Entre-temps, l’urbanisation a changé la Chine pour toujours. Pour une longue partie de l’histoire chinoise, la société chinoise était largement rurale et agricole ; ce n’est que très récemment que les paysans sont devenus une minorité. La nouvelle ville chinoise, générique dans sa forme, qui satisfait la plupart des besoins humains de manière fonctionnelle et basique, a introduit un nombre massif d’humains en tant que consommateurs, scientifiques potentiels ou investisseurs, et acteurs historiques. Quant aux résultats ? Comme l’a dit l’ancien dirigeant du PCC Deng Xiaoping à propos de la Révolution française, il est trop tôt pour le dire.
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SubscribeIf TG really “used to think [Harry] left for privacy,” one can probably disregard everything else she thinks about the royals, and human nature in general for that matter. I mean really.
I saw Harry the other day at the INVICTUS GAMES, in The Hague.
He was in his element and it appeared that he couldn’t have been happier. He certainly wasn’t seeking privacy, in any shape or form.
Agreed. What a complete load of tosh. I feel myself aggrieved but I still open my own curtains rather than insisting that one of my minions does so.
It seems as though the author is motivated by some malignant loathing that find its expression in these Tourette style articles
Perhaps she was being facetious- as we all can observe that Harry & his sidekick have crafted a life that is anything but ?
What a truly bitter article, seemingly based on hearsay and the writers republicanism
Sounds like a book review of Tina Brown’s latest. I am listening to it now on audible. Tina Brown reads it in quite a snippy, school-marmish fashion as well, as she reminds her readers (over & over) she’s been covering the royals for years. This review is just a regurgitation. Clearly, Tina isn’t expecting a Royal invite anytime soon.
Speaking as a parent I have to say the task of guiding but not dominating a child is not easy. The Queen has been a perfectly good mother in the context of what was thought the right approach during her life.
The truth is the character of a child is likely to assert itself despite the best endeavours of a parent.
Nature not nurture!
Nature, nurture.
Nelson Mandela was not a particularly good parent either – or husband. But then, you cannot do everything.
As for the rigidity and the suffering – it is a uniquely well-paid job, with palaces and worldwide fame thrown in. Nothing would have prevented Harry from marrying a hairdresser and getting a discreet job as a helicopter pilot in Nome, Alaska. Only that is not what he wanted, is it?
I am guessing it would be hard to parent from prison ?
Indeed. Which is why choosing a ‘career’ that would likely put you in prison – but that would eventually bring down apartheid – was not a very family-friendly choice.
27 years…
What do you mean when you say Mandela was neither a good parent or husband?
I’m astounded this trivial article has been published on Unherd . It has nothing whatsoever to recommend it .
A too harsh appraisal by far. In the fifties, parents of all shades and classes brought up children very differently to the standard child’s upbringing today. Dig into families and their backgrounds and there will often be areas of then practice which do not accord with many contemporary views. Good parents do their best but that often is not enough – such is life. The Queen and the Duke did what they felt was right. Easy to say it wasn’t from a distance of 70 years but not particularly helpful.
“perhaps you can’t mother a nation”
It’s a bit more global than that – it’s The Commonwealth and involves a lot of travel!
We all know the stuff about our own families … and then, one other family – the Royal Family, because of the absurd amount of media attention they’re subjected to. But how much do we believe the media on any other subject?
I think the photo supplied with this article is not flattering and may have been chosen to be unkind.
It’s an old editing trick used by propagandists going all the way back to the Bolsheviks and Goebbels.Choose the most unflattering picture of the subject you dislike to try and influence the reader.
Tbf she is not Harry’s mother and arguably the problem for both Harry and Andrew stems more from delusions of grandeur than it does from lack of parental love.
The behaviour of the Royals (as dysfunctional and varied as any other) has nothing at all to do with ‘Monarchy’ which is a legal and constitutional institution.
It is immaterial what their characters, hopes, fears, jealousies and longings are. These are mere gossip fodder, for people who obviously haven’t got enough to do.
A piece which seeks to excite sympathy for Prince Harry, Princess Margaret and the Duke of Windsor cuts no ice with me.
The author’s first sentence is the only one worth reading: not only is the article unseemly, it’s irrelevant, very poorly timed, and about 50 years too late. Lambasting a 100-year-old for their poor mothering skills really takes the biscuit for bad taste. What a waste of energy.
It’s good to know that UnHerd supports free speech but this piece demonstrates well the peril. And what a mean-spirited piece it is but one that no doubt will gain many upvotes and pile-ons from those that seek out this kind of baloney. Meanwhile, many others get cancelled for expressing their views put out there in the interest of honest discussion.
Tanya Gold is semi-fixated on our British monarchy and its royal family. I have lost count of the number of articles by her on these topics which I have seen.
This suggests to me that, like many Republicans, she is really using that institution and family as proxy for difficulties with her own.
On the topic of aberrant royal persons, I think the giveaway that nullifies most of her argument is the awe-inspiring mediocrity of most of their intelligences.
When the Duke of Windsor arrived with Wallis Simpson for the start of their exile in France, immediately after his Abdication, he asked her ‘What do we do now?’
Pre-marriage, Prince Harry’s only notion of how to spend time – except when he was on duty in the armed forces – was boozing in pubs and clubs, boozing in pubs and clubs, boozing in pubs and clubs. For a while he led his brother down this dead-end road.
A few individuals among them, a very few, are not so mindless. The current Earl of Snowdon (Princess Margaret’s son) has long been a furniture maker.
Yet in the main, confronted by all the furniture of Earth and every means for specialising – as an interest, hobby, spare-time occupation – in any one domain of it, the Royals are at a loss to know what to do with themselves.
I write as a keen supporter of the British monarchy. It is a much better constitutional chieftaincy than any we can elect in what is still a fallen world of sinful human beings.
But I think the inanition of the majority (not all) of royal personages stultifies Ms Gold’s case that they are essentially victims, not willing adherents of the scheme into which they are born. If they had any aspiration – however inarticulate, barely choate – to be un-imprisoned, it would show in their going in for (say) bean-growing or boat-building or any one of thousand other creative activities.
Ouch! Surely it’s the case though that an assessment of the royal parenting would fail by standards applied by our Social Services!
I am not sure what Social Services standards they would fail given that we seem periodically to hear of small children with broken bones and multiple bruises being left with violent unmarried partners who go on to kill them. Do you know something the rest of us don’t about the upbringing of the Queen’s children?
You mean they would probably manifest incorrect ideological opinions? You’re probably right about that.
I remember being shocked to learn that the Queen, as a “young bride” as she was called, moved to Malta to be with her husband. Very romantic but not when you realise she left her two children behind in the UK for years.
It was 1949 to 1951, and we need to understand that it was very common in those days for forces service couples, which was what they were, to leave very young children in the care of family, or in boarding school. Prince Philip was taking a last opportunity to spend time in his previously chosen profession, the Navy. It’s not how parents would deal with things these days, but it was 70 years ago, a whole world away, and it was the custom and practice at that time.
For me I enjoyed reading this article. Nelson Mandela and the queen have been incredible leaders. However, I don’t think it is enough (although understandable) to say that it’s ok that maybe they weren’t the best parents because they were good leaders of a country. I would argue that to be a half decent parent is more important than a great worldwide leader. It seems like the key here is a lack of emotional attachment which was common in that era together with childhoods spent in boarding schools (there is quite a lot of literature about the damage that this causes) and a mother with the incredible responsibility of being the Queen and the perhaps impossible mission of being able to attend to her children.
I am arguing that if the world was full of half decent parents the world would inevitably have a lot more emotionally healthy children and that would surely have a transformative effect on society.
I would also take issue with palaces and worldwide fame being a good thing. An upbringing, maybe without emotional attachment matched with these surroundings, creates a bit of a prison I think. Is it any wonder that Harry would not feel that he can marry anybody he wants or do any job he wants? Although he has talked about living a normal life he seems to be unable to do so. That is no surprise given what he is used to. To break free would surely require a great amount of courage that I don’t think hardly anybody has.
I think that we have it wrong believing that riches equals happiness. To generalise I would argue that a middle class (to have enough so as not to be constantly stressing about where money is coming from) upbringing is the most positive environment and least constricting for children and adults making their way in the world. The constant worshipping of celebrities on tv and glorification and berating of the rich suggests that we should keep aiming higher. Not to do so would be a failure and having enough is not enough. I know that I have been taken in to this way of thinking.
I think we should show some understanding for children who grow up surrounded by great wealth. It rarely seems a healthy environment to live a contented life.
I’d agree with your evaluation of the costs, but you have to agree that being a prince is a pretty well rewarded career. I just get a little impatient with people who refuse to pay the price – but still want to keep the advantages that they did not earn but got for being born to the right parents.
Total tripe. The Royal Family behave in the way they do because they think that they are special. Harry believes that he really has a message for mankind that is worth millions of dollars. Andrew thinks that young women want to have sex with him and that he is so clever he can lie his way out of trouble. Margaret could have had the man she claimed to love but he was not worth renouncing her title and perks. So desperate was she to be treated like a common person, she insisted on being called ‘Princess’ by even her closest friends. Charles feels he has the right to meddle in the democratic process. William seems to agree that politics, read ‘democracy’, is a dangerous practice where the plebs disobey their Royal betters.
Fortunately, our Caribbean brothers and sisters have made it clear that they are sick of being lectured about the evils of slavery by a family that refuses to look at its own history of imperial enrichment. Hopefully, the British will get off their knees soon and take back the land that this German family have stolen.
Great article, hugely enjoyable. Thanks, Tanya.
I guess this remark is satirical…